Alternative Power Report, September 2022
The September 2022 issue of the Alternative Power Report from PSR discusses Cummins new energy storage system, battery electric forecasts and EV shipping applications. PSR
2022-10-02
2022-09-29
Battery Electric Power Forecasts
With the exception of 2022 (+7.6%), Battery Electric as a power source is expected to grow between 10% and 17% throughout the forecast period, while ICE growth rates start the period at -2.3% and then grow at less than 1% for 2023 to 2025.
Battery Electric is expected to grow from 12.8% of the market in 2022 to 21.2% by 2027, while during the same period ICEs are expected to decline from 85% of the market to 75%. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead Analyst at Power Systems Research
Can EV Enthusiasm Trigger Global Growth?
Consumer adoption of EVs has gathered momentum this year, spurred by higher global oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine war has made EVs suddenly more appealing to many car buyers, accelerating adoption globally. The higher oil prices are driving EVs closer to cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s most recent Electric Vehicles Outlook 2022 report, it projected EV sales to hit 20.6 million units by 2025.
On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon Musk admitted, “We do not have a demand problem but a production problem.” Other car manufacturers such as Ford, for instance, says it can build its F150 Lightning and the Mustang Mach E fast enough to keep up with demand
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Cummins Jumps On New Energy Storage Iron Salt Formula
Cummins $24 million stake in the startup VoltStorage gives them a foot in the door with new iron redox flow technology. There is nothing wrong with lithium-ion energy storage but global demand for energy storage has nowhere to go but up, and so are lithium prices. While lithium is relatively abundant in the ground, but current supply is falling behind demand. At the same time, lithium extraction is messy and has significant environmental impact, causing local opposition to new mines and other facilities which could stall development. Aside from accessing a recyclable supply chain that can avoid conflict issues, flow battery fans note a long list of advantages over lithium-ion technology including lower cost, longer duration, and ease of scalability
Source: CleanTechnica Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Cummins has been making investments into EVs (such as the purchase of Brammo in 2017 and Meritor in 2022) for some time and this low cost, long duration, grid scale energy storage battery is part of their plan. This diversifies their portfolio of alternative power systems and helps them in the gid scale storage market. One of the major advantages for flow batteries is that they aren’t lithium-based and are therefore not subject to the same massive and sustained price increases that lithium material is seeing. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead Analyst at Power Systems Research
EV Shipping Set To Blow IC Engines Out of the Water
ALTERNATIVE POWER REPORT
Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory have released a study which examines “the technical outlook, economic feasibility, and environmental impact of battery-electric containerships.” By modelling 5 to 10 GWh electrified containerships, they found that 40% of routes today could be electrified in an economically viable manner, before considering environmental costs.
Using only technology available for purchase today, nearly all ships with routes shorter than 2,000 kilometres are economically advantageous, and ships with routes as long as 3,000km are economically viable.
Source: PV Magazine Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Ships transport more than 10 billion metric tons of cargo each year, including clothing, electronics, and oil, and almost all of these ships run on fossil fuels, so they emit a lot of carbon pollution. Maritime shipping causes about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. As the costs of large ICE containerships continue to rise electrified containerships become increasingly cost effective. Electrified containerships are 80% more efficient than their ICE counterparts, and use 30% less energy overall. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead Analyst at Power Systems Research
2022-09-28
Festive Demand Expected To Boost Auto Industry
INDIA REPORT
Adequate rainfall across the country along with the start of the long festive season will keep the demand for automobiles positive and help keep the momentum going in this segment. Additionally, normal monsoons in most parts of the country resulting in a decent agricultural harvest kept demand positive. So, automakers are focusing on building up inventory in anticipation of higher demand
The Indian economy is poised to shrug off the modest tapering of growth in Q1 2022, and aggregate demand is firm and set to expand as the festival season sets in. Hatchback cars and affordable, non-electric motorcycles and scooters are set to register bumper sales in the coming months as India gets ready to celebrate its first ‘normal’ festive season after a gap of two years. Above-normal rains, positive consumer sentiment and a generally optimistic mood are also expected to boost sales of these entry-level vehicles.
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Vinfast To Export Initial 5,000 EVs To Europe and the U.S.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: VIETNAM REPORT
Vinfast has announced plans to export approximately 5,000 EVs to the U.S., Canada, and Europe by the end of 2022. This is the first time for them to export EVs. The company also plans to start construction of a new EV plant in the U.S. by the end of this year, accelerating its global strategy.
According to the plan, exports to the U.S. and other countries will begin in early November, with delivery to customers starting in December. Vinfast’s CEO revealed that the company has orders for approximately 65,000 EVs worldwide.
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South Korea Sees First Trade Deficit with China in 28 Years
FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT
The economic relationship between China and the ROK has reached a turning point. According to statistics from the ROK, for the first time in 28 years, the ROK has a trade deficit with China. China has been the best customer of the export driven ROK economy, and this is causing concern in the ROK. At the same time, Chinese companies are intensifying their takeover of Korean companies, and in response to the escalation of the U.S.-China conflict, they have begun to pursue a strategy of using Korea as a foothold to capture the U.S. market.
A management official at South Korea’s Hyundai Motor’s joint venture plant in Chongqing, China, said that the passenger car assembly plant is idle and that negotiations are underway to sell it to a Chinese company. Hyundai Motor started operations in Chongqing in 2017, including an assembly plant with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units, but sales slumped due to the rise of Chinese automakers. At one point, the company occupied second place with a market share of nearly 10%, but recently it has fallen below 2% and slumped to 10th place.
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Honda To Discontinue Two-Wheeled Gasoline Vehicles
FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
On Sept. 13, 2022, Honda announced it will eliminate gasoline-powered motorcycles by the mid-2040s. All new vehicles will be EV motorcycles; 3.5 million, or 15% of global sales, are to be EV motorcycles by 2030. Honda has already declared that all its four-wheeled vehicles will be EVs by 2040, but this is the first time the company has laid out a concrete strategy for decarbonization on two wheels.
From now on, Honda will pursue electrification exclusively with EVs. First, it will launch at least 10 EV motorcycle models by 2025. Since investment in new vehicle development and production facilities will be a heavy burden, Honda will use a common platform for batteries, motors, and other components for three large motorcycle models to be launched in Japan, the United States, and Europe between 2024 and 2025.
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Special Report: M&T Expo
BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT
TheM&T Expo 2022 is one of the most important trade fairs in the construction and mining equipment industry throughout Latin America and this year the show featured more than 600 exhibiting brands in 54,000 square meters. Held in Sao Paulo Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2022, the event had more than 30,000 visits in four days.
Disagreements between show organizers and exhibitors caused key players in the market to avoid the show. The list of missing exhibitors included Caterpillar, John Deere, Komatsu, JCB, CNH, and Volvo. Chinese companies, as well as Liebherr, took this opportunity to use large spaces at the event, both in area and in product portfolio with respective sales and engineering teams.
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