Do you expect a sharp slowdown for truck purchases in October due to the possible resurgence of the Coronavirus this fall?
Chris Fisher
PSR Analysis: At this point, no. The “shock and awe” of the pandemic appears to be well behind us. During the past few months, commercial truck demand has stabilized albeit at a low level but continues to improve.
Recent surveys have indicated that trucking conditions are improving. The biggest threat to the health of the industry would be a further lockdown of the economy which would cause trucking conditions to slow but would not likely upend the market. However, we do believe it will take a further 18-36 months for the economy to return to a pre-virus level.
The 1,200 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway Trucks to be produced in North America (Canada and the U.S.) in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
New restrictions for imports of right-wheel engines to Russia became effective July 1. Completely barred from import are machines of the M2 and M3 class – trucks, buses, LCVs and construction machines.
Maxim Sakov
On top of this, the procedure of Custom’s clearance of right-wheel passenger cars became more complicated. The owner of such car should obtain technical certificate, confirming compliance of car design to the safety requirement.
According to the Federal Customs Service, the amount of payments will depend on ecological class, production date, engine volume and other parameters. This will include processing fee, custom’s tax and utilization fee. Read The Article
Grab and GOJEK, the two strongest Southeast Asian ride-hiring services, will focus their resources on their ancestral businesses of car dispatch, delivery and payment. Due to the impact of the new coronavirus, both companies have decided to reduce their workforce for the first time since their founding about 10 years ago and are withdrawing from their non-core businesses.
Akihiro Komuro
The “Super-app” concept, which provides a full range of lifestyle-related services, was forced to be reviewed.
Grab and GOJEK announced in succession in June that they would be laying off 5% (360 employees) and 9% (430 employees), respectively.
Since February, the business environment has changed dramatically with the COVID-19. The use of the service has plummeted due to restrictions on behavior by governments.
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor announced on July 6 that it has begun exporting commercial hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to Europe. The company shipped 10 trucks to Switzerland, and it plans to export 1,600 units by 2025 using a long-term lease contract system.
Akihiro Komuro
Hyundai has set up a joint venture company to build a hydrogen infrastructure in Switzerland; it also plans to develop hydrogen stations and other infrastructure in cooperation with a local company. They plan to use Switzerland as a base for expanding their exports throughout Europe.
The South Korean government is also focusing on the spread of the hydrogen-based society and will appeal to the governments of other countries. The trucks exported this time will be used by the food distribution industry. The route for these trucks is fixed, making it easy to set up the infrastructure for refueling.
In July, MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology summoned a meeting with local governments, industry associations and automotive companies on battery switch-on implementation. People attending offered thoughts on implementing battery switch-on operations, sharing recommendations for policy and discussing challenges of proposed actions.
PSR Analysis: Electric vehicle development is facing several different technology road maps. While the automotive industry prefers plug-in and charging, grid companies are more inclined to favor the battery switch-on mode based on grid reliability.
Such debate is good for advancing electrification in the auto industry, it is vital to have all participants’ input before promoting electric vehicles on a larger scale. PSR
Qin Fen is Business Development Manager – China, for Power Systems Research
The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles
During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels. To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.
Chris Fisher
Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging. The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.
Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles. These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.
Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.
Tyler Wiegert
For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.
EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.
Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.
In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.
Tyler Wiegert
Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah
The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms of progress. While touching upon a clutch of challenges plaguing the CV industry, he claimed the scenario as ‘VUCA’ (short for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) in nature – a new normal that we have to accustom to.
“The world is no different. The global CV industry will also see lower demand and output in the short to medium term, which makes it all the more imperative for the domestic industry to become more competitive and grab as much as opportunities,” he said.
At the same time, Shah said, change and uncertainties have always been part of the CV landscape, yet the time frame available for stakeholders to adapt and thrive has shortened recently. “Times like that of COVID-19 have exposed numerous susceptibilities across the value chain that warrants a 360-degree overhaul,” he said.
Other leading industry executives participating in the panel were Anuj Kathuria, Chief Operating Officer, Ashok Leyland; Jayant Davar, Founder, Co-Chairman and MD, Sandhar Technologies; Sushil Rathi, COO (Transport and Procurement), Mahindra Logistics, and Siddharth Bhandari, Chairman of Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA) – Bengal Region, and CEO, Bhandari Automobiles.
In his closing remarks, Shah said all stakeholders should become a change catalyst themselves, and should not wait for the external demand drivers to turn positive. Becoming competitive and collaborative is paramount, he said, thereby focusing more on solutions for the challenges.
“Our businesses have to move from build-to-print models to innovation and R&D-driven enterprises,” he said. “Since the traditional demand drivers are not promising, we need to do a lot internally as an industry to move beyond the uncertainties to make a winning strategy.”
This is neither the first nor the last crisis for this industry, he said, but a crisis of this kind cannot be wasted without gaining good experiences and key learning. “We have to stop playing individually, but join others to perform a symphony to make the difference,” he added.
