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North America Economic Outlook – November 2021
Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, takes a look at what’s in store for the industry segments we follow for the rest of 2021 and beyond.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about the economic outlook for North America.
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DATAPOINT: 2021 North America Combines
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Combine production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 North American production of combines. When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean the United States only.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:39
Combines, overall, boost crop output and farm income. We expect that production of these units in North America this year will be about 6300 units. That would be up about 400 units or 7 1/2% from 2020. The gain is mainly due to increased optimism by farmers regarding their future prospects.
01:05
In 2020 we saw a huge drop from the previous year. 2020 production was 5850. Down nearly 8%, or about 500 units, from 2019. Even with an increase this year, annual production will still be slightly less than that of 2019, when 6400 units were built. Production this year will be about flat with 2019.
01:33
As much as 30% of US production of combines is shipped worldwide.
COVID-19 related factors played a role in the decline in 2020, of course; especially for parts availability and the drop in orders for new machinery.
Sales of combines picked up in the fourth quarter last year after a tough spring for sales.
Curt Blades, Senior VP of Agriculture for AEM, “The increase reflects farmer sentiment about the future of their operations.” he says. “It’s really a good early indicator of whether folks are enthusiastic about where markets are headed.”
This is a favorable sign. A few years ago, farmers were reluctant to buy or trade in pricey equipment because of lower commodity prices. In 2017, for example, production and purchases of new combines rebounded. The gain was attributed to an increase in commodity prices, such as corn and soybeans, that peaked in 2013 and 2014.
Expect production of combines in the US to gain as much as 10% by 2025.
02:47
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, EnginLink — which provides engine production, forecast, and specification data.
Look for Datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and Ag related equipment.
03:17
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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Auto Production Down Sharply in Asia
SOUTHEAST ASIA REPORT: VIETNAM, THAILAND, MALAYSIA
Akihiro Komuro At the end of September, an auto parts manufacturer operating a plant near the southern Vietnamese city of Ho Chi Minh is struggling with a sharp drop in orders. The parts produced at this plant are delivered to Toyota group companies.
On Sept. 10, Toyota revised downward its production plan for the same month and October, adding about 70,000 units to the originally planned production cut of about 360,000 units in September, and cutting production by about 330,000 units in October.
The company also announced that it would revise its full-year production plan from 9.3 million units to 9 million units. Parts suppliers in Vietnam were affected by this. It was around the same time that Toyota announced its production cutbacks that the manufacturer mentioned above was told by its business partner that it wanted to significantly reduce orders for October.
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TSMC Plans Plant in Japan, Operation Set for 2024
FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor foundry, has announced that it will build a new plant in Japan, with plans to begin construction in 2022 and mass production in 2024. The Sony Group and Denso Corporation are expected to participate in the construction of the new plant.
The new plant will produce logic semiconductors with a circuit line width of 22 to 28 nanometers. They are generally used in signal processing that requires large amounts of data, and in high-performance microcomputers used in car control. TSMC envisions the site adjacent to the Sony Group’s image sensor plant in Kumamoto Prefecture as the planned construction site.
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Russian Car Sales in September Drop 22.6%
Sales on new passenger cars and LCVs in September 2021 declined 22.6%, according to the Association of European Businesses (AEB). In total, automotive salons and dealers have sold 119,4 000 cars, which is 34,9 vehicles less than in 2020 September.
According to AEB head Tomas Schterzel, “negative trend is going on” (in August the sales dropped 17%), although the totals for the first nine months of 2021 are showing 15.1% growth versus the same period in 2020. The shortage of vehicles on the market is…
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KAMAZ Increases Nine-Month Production 21%
KAMAZ has significantly increased production for the first nine months of 2021 versus the same period last year. Through September, the OEM produced 30,979 vehicles, up 21% from the same period in 2020, reports the company.
In September, KAMAZ made 4,067 vehicles (versus 3,676 vehicles in September 2020.
PSR Analysis: KAMAZ has found ways to resolve the problem with components (mostly by offering simpler models), working with pent-up demand and increasing its market share.
Maxim…
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Personal Mobility Segment Lacks Sparkle, Stocks, Demand Drop
Aditya Kondejkar Passenger vehicles sales dropped 41% to around 160k units in September as the shortage of semi-conductors disrupted production at most of the OEMs. OEMs are facing supply shortages rather than demand problems. We are seeing robust customer demand as increasing preferences towards personal mobility increase.
2-wheel sales declined 17% to 1.5 million units in September. The Motorcycle segment is heavily impacted as sales is dropped 23% in September. Owing to high vehicle acquisition…
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China Faces Limits on Power and Production
Jack Hao The global energy structure has accelerated the adjustment to green energy, and the investment in traditional energy is insufficient. Under the influence of COVID-19, energy supply and demand are disrupted, exacerbating the contradiction between supply and demand, resulting in global power shortage.
China recovered from the epidemic earlier than many other countries and is now almost the only major manufacturer, so industrial power consumption has increased significantly. Power rationing is mainly to alleviate the power shortage and achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. China is dominated by thermal power generation, and there is a serious shortage of clean energy. There are still big problems in the energy structure.
Source: Weixunso Read The Article
PSR Analysis: In 2021, China’s electricity demand will grow by more than 10%, which greatly exceeds the previously estimated demand growth of 6% to 7%. At present, the substantial growth of power demand has put great pressure on power supplies. Coal accounts for about 70% of China’s electricity consumption, but the output of coal is far lower than the demand for electricity.
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Brazil Motorcycle In-Service Population Grows
Fabio Ferraresi During the pandemic, the number of motorcycles in Brazil grew with the demand for delivery and e-commerce and boosted other business, from clothes for motorcyclists to spare parts.
Source: M&T Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The effect is seen not only because of the incremental sales and consequent in-service population increase, but because of the profile of utilization that changed. Motorcycles in Brazil are used for last mile delivery and delivery…
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Volkswagen Truck and Bus and CBMM To Develop Niobium Battery for EV
Volkswagen Truck and Bus, part of the Traton Group, and CBMM, a Brazilian giant of niobium mining, announced an agreement to develop batteries with Niobium for Electric Vehicles. It promises to recharge a Truck Battery in less than 10 minutes and provide a traveling higher range. Volkswagen will start tests in 2022 to develop a functional vehicle with Niobium batteries by the end of 2022.
Source: Revista Oeste Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Primarily used to improve the strength…
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