St. Paul, MN —The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 119 to 114, or -4.2%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2026, from Q4 2025. The year-over-year (Q1 2025 to Q1 2026) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 113 to 114, or 0.9%. The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. MHCV demand will vary by region in 2026. North America and European vehicle demand is expected to improve somewhat over last year; China is expected to see a single digit decline in production. Much of the decline comes on the heels of very high levels of production in 2025.

Global Index. Overall, global production is expected to decline slightly in 2026 over last year. Ongoing tariffs along with the conflict in the Middle East and the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are putting pressure on truck demand this year.

North America. Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 9.4% this year compared with low 2025 production. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 11.3% this year as order rates for class 8 trucks improved strongly from December – March. Improvement in freight rates and freight demand along with tightening truck capacity and some level of truck pre-buy ahead of the 2027 GHG emission regulations is expected to drive increased truck production this year. However, a protracted conflict in the Middle East would put significant downside pressure on truck demand primarily due to higher fuel cost, supply chain disruptions and an overall concern about the state of the economy moving forward throughout the year.  PSR

By Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 107 to 111, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2025, from Q3 2025. The year over-year (Q4 2024 to Q4 2025) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 113 to 111, or -1.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link,™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2026, all regions are expected to see some level of improvement in the MHCV segment. After low levels of production in Europe and North America in 2025, a slight increase in demand in 2026 is expected as both regions recover and should see stronger demand in 2027 and 2028. All other regions are expected to see improvement as well.

Global. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 3.7% this year over 2025. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs had placed pressure on vehicle demand last year but market conditions are stabilizing heading into 2026.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President, Global Data Products, at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (Oct. 13, 2025)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 117 to 107, or -8.5%, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, from Q2 2025. The year-over-year (Q3 2024 to Q3 2025) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 109 to 107, or -1.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline significantly this year over 2024.  Truck demand in North America and Europe is expected to show slight improvement in 2026.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline 3.2% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.  However, global truck demand is expected to see some improvement in 2026. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea is expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline somewhat significantly this year over 2024.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.9% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.

North America. The commercial truck market in North America remains in a “wait and see” mode with regard to truck sales this year.  Uncertainty about the economy and the impact of the trade tariffs moving forward is causing hesitancy among the various fleets.  Many fleet owners also believe the EPA will modify or outright cancel the phase 3 GHG emission regulations thus significantly reducing the cost of the MY 2027 vehicles and effectively eliminating any significant 2026 truck pre-buy.  At the time of this writing, PSR believes there will be no significant truck pre-buy through the rest of this year and a significantly reduced pre-buy if any, in 2026.  Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 13% this year compared with 2024.  PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (April 21, 2025)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 113 to 107, or -5.3%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2025, from Q4 2024. The year-over-year (Q1 2024 to Q1 2025) timeframe was flat for the PSR-TPI, 107 to 107, or 0%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase slightly while European and North American production is expected to decline this year over 2024.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 0.1% this year over 2024.  A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs will likely place pressure on vehicle demand this year. PSR

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 109 to 113, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024, from Q3 2024.

The year-over-year (Q4 2023 to Q4 2024) decrease for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 113, or -3.4%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea are expected to increase moderately European production is expected to be flat and North American production is expected to decline over 2024.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 2.3% this year over 2024. Overall improvement in the global economy is the primary driver for the forecasted increase. However, the possibility for additional global tariffs from the incoming United States Executive Branch may place negative pressure on this forecast. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst      

St. Paul, MN (Oct. 13, 2024)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 123 to 112, or-8.9%, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2024, from the Q2 2024. The year-over-year (Q3 2023 to Q3 2024) decrease for the PSR-TPI was, 114 to 112, or -1.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. 

All Regions. In 2024, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia, Japan/Korea and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China and South America, is expected to improve over last year.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.4% this year over 2023.  Moving into 2025, much of the focus on demand will be centered around slowing global economic conditions that will likely impact overall freight demand.   PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst       

St. Paul, MN (July 29, 2024)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 113 to 126, or 11.5%, for the three-month period ending June 30, 2024, from Q1 2024. The year-over-year (Q2 2023 to Q2 2024) increase for the PSR-TPI was 125 to 126, or 0.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2024, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan and Korea is expected to improve over last year.

Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.6% this year over 2023.  Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand will be centered around slowing global economic conditions that will likely impact overall freight demand. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and
Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (April 15, 2024)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 116 to 111, or 4.5%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2024, from Q4 2023. The year-over-year (Q1 2023 – Q1 2024) PSR-TPI was flat at 111. There was no change.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. In 2024, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan, and Korea is expected to improve over last year.

Global Index. Globally, medium, and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.5% this year over 2023. Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand will be centered around slowing global economic conditions that will impact overall freight demand. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

April 16, 2024— The Power Systems Research South America Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 88 to 91, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2024 (Q1 2024), from Q4 2023. The year-over-year (Q1 2023 – Q1 2024) PSR-TPI increased  from 75 to 91, or 21.3%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. The South America TPI measures truck production in Brazil, Argentina and Columbia.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and
Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research