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Russia Economic Outlook – October 2021
Maxim Sakov
Market Consultant Russia
Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q3 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Emiliano Marzoli
Hello everyone. From Power Systems Research, I’m your host, Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK. And today we’ll discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our market consultant in Moscow.
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DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Motorcycle Production
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Motorcycle production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss a datapoint covering 2021 North American production of on-road motorcycles.
When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean Mexico and the United States only. For purposes of this podcast, the motorcycle unit is defined as any two-wheeled on-road vehicle. Other three-wheeled vehicles such as the BRP Spyder and the Polaris Slingshot are classified as motorcycles by the Department of Transportation, but they are included in other of our production reports.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:58
We expect that production of the motorcycle units in North America this year will be about 525400 units. That would be up about 7100 units, or almost 16%, from 2020. The gain is mainly due to increased production by Italika in Mexico.
In 2020, we saw a huge drop in production from the previous year. 2020 production was 453300 units. Down nearly 19%, or about 104000 units, from 2019.
Even with a strong increase this year, annual production will still be 32000 units less than that of 2019, when 557400 units were built. This years production is still down about 6% from 2019.
01:56
Mexico-based Italika leads in the production of on road motorcycles with 54% of total units produced in North America. In second position is Harley-Davidson with 44%, and 3rd is Polaris Industries, with only about 2%.
As much as 20% of US production of on-road motorcycles is shipped worldwide. Leading producer Italika exports throughout Central and South America to countries such as Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Peru, Brazil and Puerto Rico.
Italika reports record first half 2021 sales of 480000 units for all products; up 33% from 2020 and up about 2% from 2019, thanks to outstanding performance in Mexico. The company has plans to expand its Toluca plant to make up to 750000 units per year. Sales demand is being driven by the fact that motorcycles are a more affordable alternative to using mass transit. The increase is attributed to the demand for new fuel efficient models along with seasonably warm spring and fall weather. Lower pricing has also led to an increase in purchases.
03:13
However, the motorcycle market overall is losing buyers. Industry’s observer notes that baby boomers have been the main target in the motorcycle industry for the last four decades; but, millennials have not been purchasing motorcycles. This is mostly due to age and financial factors.
Boosted by COVID-19 factors, expect production to gain as much as 10% by 2025.
03:41
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production forecast and specification data.
Look for datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and on-highway vehicles.
04:09
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the PSR website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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Q3 2021 European Economic Outlook
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Christopher Bamforth, European Market Analyst for Power Systems Research, comments on his Q3 2021 outlook for the European economy.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:00:06 Emiliano Marzoli
From Power Systems Research I am Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTalk, and today we’ll discuss an update on the economic outlook for Europe with Christopher Bamforth, our European Market Analyst.
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DATAPOINT: 2021 Tactical Military Vehicles
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Tactical Military Equipment production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations, at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss a datapoint covering 2021 North American production of tactical military equipment.
When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean Canada and the United States. For purposes of this podcast, the tactical military equipment is defined as any tracked and wheeled vehicle for land-based military transport and activity.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:52
We expect that production of these units in North America this year will be about 7400 units. That would be up about 1200 units, or 20% from last year.
In 2020 we saw a big drop from the previous year. 2020 production was down nearly 24%, or nearly 2000 units from 2019.
As much as 70% of North American production of tactical military equipment is shipped worldwide.
01:26
Oshkosh Defense leads in the production of these military units with 52% of total units produced. In second position is AM General with about 39%, and 3rd is General Dynamics Land Systems with combined plant totals of about 4%.
01:46
Orders for new military equipment are on the increase along with the remanufacturing of existing units.
The outlook is especially positive for Oshkosh Defense, which produces the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, dubbed the JTLV. This unit is expected to replace a large number of the humvee fleets now operated by the Army and the Marines. According to the Marine Corps, orders for the JTLV could increase significantly in the coming years as interest grows among Defense Department customers and overseas allies. Oshkosh Defense, which has delivered more than 100,000 tactical armored vehicles, has been selected as the prime contractor.
Expect production to increase up to 10% over the next five years as defense budgets increase for new military vehicles.
02:43
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production, forecasts, and specification data.
Look for datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and on-highway vehicles.
03:12
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the PSR website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcasts app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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Mercedes Announces BEV Bus for Brazil
Fabio Ferraresi Mercedes says it has committed an investment of US$ 20 million for the launch of the eO500U, the first electric bus by the German OEM, the market leader in Brazil. Roberto Leoncini, Sales Director said that Mercedes opted for beginning the electrification of the MHV segment by the Bus products because it has higher impact on the population.
One of the key drivers for this launch is the new legislation for São Paulo city that aims to convert 50% of the fleet to electric by 2027. This…
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Jacto Announces Hybrid Self-Propelled Planter
Jacto has entered the planter segment with three products, Uniport 500, Lumina 400 and Meridia 200. Uniport is the first hybrid self-propelled planter in Brazil. It has a Diesel ICE working as an electric power generator and independent electric drives in the four wheels of the equipment. This design promises less fuel consumption, because of a better traction system and uniform planting speed, and consequent better uptime since it reduces stops for refueling.
Source: Press Release / SAE Brazil Mobility Forum Read the Article
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Eletra Converts Trucks and Buses to Electric in Brazil
Eletra started converting Trucks and Buses from 3.5 to 54 Tons for the range of 50km to 150km by replacing the actual Powertrain (ICE, Transmission, Axels,) and suspension with batteries, electric drive and new suspension. The main benefits for the approach is to provide 30% less cost than a new Electric Truck and shorten the timing to meet sustainability targets, since the retrofit is done quickly. Companies like Ambev (AB-Inbev) announced 102 trucks retrofitted with Eletra.
Source: M&T Read The Article
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Toyota To Invest 1.5 trillion Yen in Auto Batteries
FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro Toyota Motor Corporation has announced that it will invest 1.5 trillion yen in automotive batteries by 2030. Of this amount, 1 trillion yen will be used to increase the production capacity to 200 GWh, 33 times the current level. This is an increase of more than 10% over the previous target.
The company also announced that it will invest 500 billion yen in research and development, with the goal of reducing the cost of batteries per electric vehicle by more than half. As demand for electric vehicles is sure to grow, the battle for leadership among manufacturers will intensify.
Toyota’s investment in batteries was 80 billion yen in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021, and it is calculated to continue to exceed 100 billion yen per year until 2030. The total amount of capital investment is expected to be 1.35 trillion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2022, of which more than 10% will be allocated to batteries.
Source: The Nikkei
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Hyundai Motor To Convert Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses To Hydrogen and Electric Vehicles
FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT
The Hyundai Motor Group has announced its “Hydrogen Vision 2040,” which states that 2040 will be the first year of the popularization of hydrogen energy. The company plans to launch new models of all commercial vehicles, including heavy-duty trucks and buses, with hydrogen-electric and electric vehicles. The goal is to reduce the price of hydrogen-electric vehicles to the level of general electric vehicles by 2030 by developing a next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system that is inexpensive and has good performance.
The Hyundai Motor Group will not launch any new commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the future. It plans to mass-produce hydrogen-electric trucks in the country in the first half of next year and plans to apply hydrogen fuel cells to all of its commercial vehicle lineup by 2028.
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VinFast Partners with Chinese Company To Make EV Batteries
SOUTHEAST ASIA: VIETNAM REPORT
Automaker VinFast is partnering with China’s Gotion High-Tech to research and produce batteries for electric vehicles as part of its vision to become a global brand.
According to a statement released by Vingroup, VinFast’s parent company, the two companies are planning to build Vietnam’s first lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery plant. LFP is an iron-based battery that does not rely on rare raw materials such as cobalt or nickel. That makes LFP batteries much cheaper, although they have lower energy density than nickel-based chemistries.
According to Vingroup, Gotion is the leading manufacturer of LFP batteries in China, with eight research and development centers worldwide and 10 manufacturing facilities in China. Thai Thi Thanh Hai, vice chairman of Vingroup, said the partnership is key to VinFast’s ability to achieve supply chain autonomy.
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