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The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil
Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.
Carlos Briganti In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.
This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.
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Production of Mercedes-Benz Actros Planned at KAMAZ Plant
Maxim Sakov Russian production of the clean on-road Mercedes-Benz Actros will start in November at the KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny plant. The new truck is being modified by Mercedes to meet Euro-6 standards. At the same time, German engineers are reworking the process of exhaust gases neutralization.
Russian production of Actros will allow Russian fleet-owners to purchase top-quality trucks without extra customs fees. The price and initial availability have not been disclosed. Read The Article
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Trucking News: Asking The Expert
Do you expect a sharp slowdown for truck purchases in October due to the possible resurgence of the Coronavirus this fall?
Chris Fisher PSR Analysis: At this point, no. The “shock and awe” of the pandemic appears to be well behind us. During the past few months, commercial truck demand has stabilized albeit at a low level but continues to improve.
Recent surveys have indicated that trucking conditions are improving. The biggest threat to the health of the industry would be a further lockdown of the economy which would cause trucking conditions to slow but would not likely upend the market. However, we do believe it will take a further 18-36 months for the economy to return to a pre-virus level.
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DATAPOINT: 2020 Production of NA Off-Highway Trucks Forecast at 1,200 Units
The 1,200 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway Trucks to be produced in North America (Canada and the U.S.) in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
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New Restrictions for Import of Right-Wheel Engines to Russia Launched
New restrictions for imports of right-wheel engines to Russia became effective July 1. Completely barred from import are machines of the M2 and M3 class – trucks, buses, LCVs and construction machines.
Maxim Sakov On top of this, the procedure of Custom’s clearance of right-wheel passenger cars became more complicated. The owner of such car should obtain technical certificate, confirming compliance of car design to the safety requirement.
According to the Federal Customs Service, the amount of payments will depend on ecological class, production date, engine volume and other parameters. This will include processing fee, custom’s tax and utilization fee. Read The Article
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Hyundai Exports Fuel Cell Trucks To Europe
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor announced on July 6 that it has begun exporting commercial hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to Europe. The company shipped 10 trucks to Switzerland, and it plans to export 1,600 units by 2025 using a long-term lease contract system.
Akihiro Komuro Hyundai has set up a joint venture company to build a hydrogen infrastructure in Switzerland; it also plans to develop hydrogen stations and other infrastructure in cooperation with a local company. They plan to use Switzerland as a base for expanding their exports throughout Europe.
The South Korean government is also focusing on the spread of the hydrogen-based society and will appeal to the governments of other countries. The trucks exported this time will be used by the food distribution industry. The route for these trucks is fixed, making it easy to set up the infrastructure for refueling.
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Trucking News: Ask the Expert
The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles
During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels. To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.
Chris Fisher Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging. The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.
Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles. These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.
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Daimler Pursues Fuel Cells on Multiple Fronts
In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.
Tyler Wiegert Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.
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MotorIndia Sponsors Commercial Vehicle Webinar
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms…
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Thoughts on Battery Change for New Energy Vehicle, using Big Data
Qin Fen The symposium of battery change mode for new energy vehicle was held June 15 in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Data from National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles suggests that over 3 million new energy vehicles were in the system in 2019 and 900,000 vehicles are running daily. Data also suggest that new energy vehicle GVW range primarily falls under 4.5 tons.
Source: Sohu Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Many numbers are in the article, some contradictory. As one of the truck…
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