The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles
During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels. To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.
Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging. The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.
Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles. These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.
Within the medium and heavy truck segment, electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks are still in the testing phase. Barriers to adoption such as upfront cost, charging infrastructure, reliability, resale value, vehicle range and the impacts of extremely cold or extremely hot temperatures certainly will have to be addressed before the vehicles can be adopted on a large scale.
Large scale adoption will reduce up front cost and provide support for additional charging infrastructure, which would likely benefit other vehicle segments, as well. Large scale adoption should also help improve the battery technology as the manufacturers continue to learn and improve the equipment.
The advantages of electric vehicles include elimination of fuel cost and reduced maintenance cost, since EV’s have significantly fewer moving parts than the traditional commercial vehicle. However, electric commercial vehicles will continue to compete with other technologies such as natural gas and eventually hydrogen fuel cells. Fuel economy improvements to the traditional engines will also impact electric vehicle adoption rates.
Aside from the fact that most of the electricity to power these vehicles is derived from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, the “zero emission” vehicles will likely benefit from government financial incentives and government mandates.
In California, CARB recently approved a measure that will require the truck manufactures to transition a percentage of their sales in the state from diesel trucks to electric zero-emission vehicles. PSR
Chris Fisher Is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
