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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta SUMMARY. In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize. Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.
However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months. Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth. Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years. Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed. However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.
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VW Truck & Bus To Invest US$ 400 Million in 2021-2025

Fabio Ferraresi VW Truck and Bus has announced a new cycle of investment in Brazil operations of US$ 400 Million, for the period 2021 to 2025. This is higher than the last investment cycle, that was US$ 300 million that ended in 2020. This investment will be allocated in new products, mainly in alternative propulsion systems, such as electric, and improvements in the production facilities.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The investment reinforces VW’s Truck and Bus focus in the…
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KAMAZ Launches First Dump Truck Sharing Service
The KAMAZ truck sharing service works on the classic vehicle sharing model. The company provides a ready-to-use vehicle; the client just needs to fuel it. Optionally, the client can rent the truck with the driver.
It’s possible to take a truck for a period of one day up to one year. The fleet available for rent includes modern dump trucks KAMAZ-65801 up to 32 ton capacity, which is one of most popular models on the market.
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2020, A Year to Forget for MHV; 2021 Is Looking Better

Chris Fisher SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
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Ford Transit To Be Produced in Uruguay and Sold in Brazil
Ford announced this month the production of the LCV Transit in Uruguay; it will be sold in South America countries, mainly Brazil. The LCV will be built in partnership with Nordex, which belongs to the Antelo group. Both companies have invested around US$ 50 million and the project will create 200 jobs. Nordex has extensive experience in the Uruguay market producing heavy trucks and passenger cars.
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TRATON-Navistar Merger Impacts Engine Development

Chris Fisher In November, Volkswagen’s TRATON group and Navistar announced a merger agreement in which TRATON will acquire all outstanding shares of Navistar. Previously, TRATON held 16.7% of Navistar’s common shares. The deal is valued at $3.7 billion and is expected to be finalized in mid-2021.
Navistar has been in collaboration with TRATON’s brand MAN for a number of years, primarily with regard to engine development. PSR believes additional engine offerings will be one of the primary goals to improve profitability and long-term market share improvement within the class 8 truck segment.
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Iveco Sets Record Sales of NG Trucks in Argentina
After selling 35 NG Trucks in Chile, Iveco announced the sale of 100 Stralis NP Cursor 13 NGs in Argentina for a supplier to O&G industry in the Southern country.
Source: Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The acceptance from customers helps to remove a barrier to NG sales, transforming this technology from a Trend to a reality. NG was formerly more deployed in Buses than in Trucks. With the experience of fleet owners, the technology will gain scale rapidly…
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Brazil Extends Trade Agreements with Mexico and Paraguay
Brazil recently published two trade agreements with Mexico, and, earlier in July, with Paraguay. The Mexican agreements cover Commercial Vehicles trade, with the reduction of import taxes progressively reaching zero by 2022. The agreement with Paraguay covers auto parts taxes from country to country. The taxes are now between 0 and 2% and will be zero in 2022.
Source: Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The agreement with Paraguay is beneficial to auto parts makers on both sides…
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Scania Creates Bridge To EU 2030 Emissions Targets

Emiliano Marzoli Scania, a Swedish truck manufacturer, is developing an 18-meter long solar cell-clad trailer that will be able to generate energy from devices along 140m2 of surface area on the sides and roof.
According to the truck manufacturer, the powered trailer will be able to generate fuel saving between 5% and 10% in northern Europe, and up to double that in sunny regions like Spain. The tests are also validating the use of the trailers as power stations to feed the main grid, once they have completed charging the batteries and the vehicle is stationary.
Source : Read The Article
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Western Auto OEMs Seek Privileges for LNG Trucks
Move is opposed by Russian KAMAZ which plans to make similar machines.

Maxim Sakov Market players have proposed canceling import taxes and utilization fees for commercial vehicles fueled by LNG until 2025. The target of the measure is the development of LNG-transport until the appearance of domestic analogs of such machinery.
The suggestion comes from foreign makers of LNG on-highway tractors and supported by Gazprom. Now, no imported vehicles are exempted from these taxes.
The import tax for on-highway tractors is 5% of their cost, and the utilization fee is 10 to 12K Euro. LNG tractor is more expensive than its diesel analog by about 35K Euro.