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Fabio Discusses Electrification of MHV
Fabio Ferraresi
Managing Director, South America
Today, Fabio Fabio Ferraresi, Director of Business Development in South America, discusses Brazil MH vehicle production and trends in MHV propulsion and powertrains.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll talk with Fabio Ferraresi about transportation trends in Brazil, especially as they apply to medium and heavy vehicles. We’ll discuss 2021 Brazil production forecasts, and we’ll also look at trends in propulsion and powertrains for medium and heavy vehicles.
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2021 Global Economic Outlook
Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the Global economic outlook by region and industry segment.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, an editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about his global economic outlook. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.
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Q2 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) climbs 193.5%
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St. Paul, MN (July 12, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased 193.5% year-over-year (Q2 2020 to the Q2 2021), moving from 46 to 135. For the three-month period ended June 30, 2021, (Q1 2021 to Q2 2021) the TPI climbed 15.4%, increasing from 117 to 135.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and possibly into 2022.
All Regions. Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
North America. In the United States, freight demand remains extremely strong and freight rates very high primarily due to high levels of consumer spending and the overall strong economy.
While the demand side is very strong the supply side is where the issues lie concerning medium and heavy truck production. The on-going issues with the supply chain are expected to continue for the remainder of the year and possibly into 2022 as OEM’s continue to have difficulty sourcing various components such as semi-conductors.
While the 2021 class 8 truck order boards are mostly filled and orders for next year are also expected to be strong, there are some concerns surrounding higher levels of inflation. On-going supply chain disruptions, worker shortages and possible negative effects from high levels of government spending could fuel higher inflation moving forward.
Europe. During the first four months of the year, European medium and heavy commercial truck registrations improved by 28.5% compared to the same period in 2020. Order bookings remain strong primarily due to an improved economy. However, Europe is facing the same problems as other regions with various supply chain disruptions. While sourcing of semi-conductors continues to be a problem, the EU’s proposal to extend the restriction on steel imports into Europe remains a point of concern. While most of the steel is sourced in the EU, imports are needed to fill in the gaps especially during periods of high vehicle demand.
South Asia. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in India is expected to reach 261,000 vehicles in 2021 which is an increase of 55% over last year. Moderate growth is also expected in 2022 and 2023 before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year. The medium and heavy truck segment will continue to face headwinds due to excess capacity in the market, increased rail freight usage, relative constant freight rate and booming fuel prices. Further, we are witnessing a change in product dynamics–the share of higher tonnage vehicles is rising. Because of this trend, fewer trucks will be needed to haul the same amount of freight.
South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 36% this year over 2020 with truck production improving by 41%. Increased vaccinations and an overall improving regional and global economy are driving the growth in vehicle demand. However, continued supply chain disruptions are negatively impacting production and this trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year.
Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 16% this year over 2020. While South Korean production is expected to increase by 28% this year, Japan production continues to lag and is expected to improve by 14.8%. Japan has been hit particularly hard by the supply chain disruption. PSR expects continued volatility in this region throughout the remainder of the year.
Greater China. Heavy truck demand during the first half of the year was strong primarily due to a truck pre-buy ahead of the China VI emission standard implementation in July 2021. The cost of the emission technology for China VI vehicles is not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy. The Heavy truck growth rate changed from positive in April to negative in May. Also, in May, the inventory of heavy trucks exceeded 300,000 units. Considering that June to July is the off-season, the short-term heavy truck sales are expected to experience downward pressure. The industry is currently expecting production of heavy trucks to be approximately 1.4 million which is a decrease of 14% compared with 2020.
The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2021 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2021. PSR
Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research
Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
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DataPoint 2021 UTV Production
Today, PSR PowerTALK Editor Joe Delmont presents the Power Systems Research 2021 North American Utility Vehicle production outlook. We estimate that North American wheel loader production this year will reach 440,100 units; about even with 2020 levels.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst – Global Operations, at Power Systems Research.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 utility vehicle production in North America.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00: 34
Utility vehicles, sometimes called UTVs or side-by-side machines, can accommodate up to six passengers and are primarily designed for off-road use, although they can be used for industrial activities and as personnel carriers on campuses.
00: 54
UTVs are gaining in popularity because of their flexibility and power. And are replacing ATV’s in many cases because ATV’s generally are limited to two persons seated, one behind the other and aren’t as flexible as UTVs.
01:12
In 2021, we estimate that North American UTV production will reach 440,100 units, down about 400 units, or 9%, from the 440,500 units produced last year.
01:30
About 40% of US production is exported worldwide, up to 85% of Mexico’s UTV production is for North American markets and Canada exports about 90% of its small 1700-unit production.
01:48
In 2019, North American production was 424,800 units. Production climbed almost 16,000 units, or about 4% in 2020, to that 440,500-unit level we discussed. Despite negative COVID related factors, the pandemic actually fed the demand for utility vehicles from recreational and industrial uses to military applications.
02:19
This is known as the pandemic paradox, because sales surged during lockdowns. The popularity of outdoor activities has increased, in part because of the pandemic. And people are enjoying off-road riding in the comfort and safety that is provided by UTVs.
02:39
The growth also comes from stabilization of the overall economy. Demand for products in the golf industry, federal government incentives, and the desire for new equipment with greener technology, especially within the sport and utility sectors.
02:56
Expect UTV production in North America to increase up to 5% by 2025. The leading UTV manufacturers in North America are Polaris — which has 32% of total North American production with its plants in the US and Mexico, in second position is Deere — with combined plant totals of 11.5, third is Kawasaki with 11%, just edging out Honda by only about 125 units which also has 11%.
There are nearly two dozen other manufacturers of UTVs in North America — including Arctic Cat, Clubcar, Kawasaki, Textron, Toro, and Yamaha.
03:36
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases, OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production forecasts and specification data.
Look for data point reports every month in the PSR PowerTrack news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products, such as mixers and agricultural equipment.
04:22
Or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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Datapoint: 2021 Grader
Today, PSR PowerTALK Editor Joe Delmont presents the Power Systems Research 2021 North American Grader production outlook. We estimate that North American grader production this year will reach 2325 units; up about 8% from 2020 levels. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, senior analyst-global operations, at Power Systems Research.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today, we’ll discuss a data point covering grader production in North America for 2021.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Motor graders are used worldwide to build and maintain roads, highways, airports and other construction projects.
00:44
In 2021, we estimate that North American grader production will reach 2525 units, up about 185 units, or 8%, from the 2340 units produced last year. About 30% of this production is exported worldwide.
In 2019, North American production was 2815 units; but production dropped sharply in 2020, plunging about 17% to only 2340 units.
01:24
The decline was driven by Tier 4 pre-buying incentives and the lull in activities that used graders that are predominantly road related.
01:34
Motor graders have a long lifespan and, as a result, demand for new machinery is not always necessary; even though construction related activities focusing on road construction are ongoing.
This product segment generally is not directly affected by COVID; however, with less roadway traffic, road construction can be expedited.
02:00
Expect grader production in North America to increase up to 10% by 2025. The leading grader manufacturers in North America are Deere — which has 59% of the total North American production, followed by Caterpillar — with 37%, and Wheeler — with two percent.
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases — OE Link, the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink, which provides engine production forecast and specification data.
Look for DataPoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products, such as mixers and agricultural equipment.
02:59
Or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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Renwex-2021 Fair Demonstrates Little Interest in EV Cars
Maxim Sakov MOSCOW–Despite the number of COVID-infected people in Moscow increasing since the middle of June, the trade shows have not been affected by the pandemic restrictions. Another fair started 21 June in Moscow Expocenter. It’s Renwex – the fair dedicated to renewable energy and electric transport.
The fair is relatively new and small. It took about 3000 sq. meters and accommodated 80 participants. Most of them were local companies, although there were some participants from Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany and China.
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GWM Opens Smart factory in Thailand, Renovates GM’s Factory
Akihiro Komuro China’s Great Wall Motor (GWM) has announced the official opening of a plant in Thailand. The company acquired the plant from General Motors (GM) in 2020 and has been working to make it smarter by installing advanced AI-based equipment. It is the company’s first smart factory to be opened in Southeast Asia. The amount of investment for the renovation has not been disclosed, but the company has indicated that it plans to invest 22.6 billion baht (about 79 billion yen) in Thailand.
The production capacity is 80,000 units per year, and it is expected to produce HVs first. In the future, the plant will also produce EVs. The company plans to allocate 60% of the vehicles produced to the Thai domestic market and 40% for export to neighboring countries in Southeast Asia and Australia.
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SK Plans To Develop Hydrogen Base in Ulsan
South Korea’s SK Group has announced plans to build a 140,000 square meter hydrogen fuel base in Ulsan. A liquid hydrogen production plant will be built, and a hydrogen-fueled power plant will also be constructed.
With the participation of Lotte Chemical, the project aims to promote the accumulation of hydrogen-related industries in the city. SK Gas will be the main proponent of the project. The company plans to invest 2.2 trillion won (about 216 billion yen) over the next five years to build infrastructure for the generation, storage, and transportation of hydrogen energy in anticipation of its widespread use, and has also announced plans to build 100 hydrogen filling stations in South Korea by 2030.
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Komatsu and Honda Plan To Jointly Develop Electric Excavator
Komatsu has announced that it plans to develop an electric excavator in cooperation with Honda and bring the product to the market during FY2021. The two companies will also jointly develop electric excavators up to the 1-ton class and will also collaborate on services such as battery replacement for construction equipment.
Source: The Nikkei
PSR Analysis: As mentioned in the April issue of PowerTALK™ News, four Japanese motorcycle manufacturers, Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki and Kawasaki, have agreed to share…
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Rostselmash Starts Building Tractor Plant in Rostov-Don
Maxim Sakov Russia’s largest maker of AG machines – Rostselmash Group of Companies – in July 2021 starts construction of a tractor plant located near Rostselmash’s main production site. Rostselmash plans to invest US$ 66 million (5 Bln Rubles).
Construction must be completed within two years, and the plant will reach its annual production capacity of 3,000 units in 2023.
The plant will consist of a production building of 62,000 sq. meters, and a building for engineering and commercial departments. Total territory of new plant will reach 14 hectares. Rostselmash plans to assemble five tractor models with rigid and articulated frame.
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