Truck Demand Expected To Remain Soft into 2026

How things have changed. Less than a year ago the industry was gearing up for a huge 2026 class 8 truck pre-buy ahead of the phase 3 GHG emission regulations that would add significant cost to the price of a truck. Road freight was expected to rebound after the post covid freight recession, and the heavy truck replacement cycle was expected to begin. OEMs filled dealer lots in anticipation of strong demand starting in early to mid-2025 and lasting through all of 2026.
As a result of very strong freight shipments and supply chain disruptions during the Covid era, fleets were purchasing as many trucks as possible which resulted in very high truck sales from 2022 – 2024. This resulted in truck overcapacity within the market.