A Drop of Up to 10% on the Horizon
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher AutoData. The article includes substantial information from Priscila Von Zuben Spadine, Data and Forecast Manager at Power Systems Research.
By Natasha Werneck
AutoData
High interest rates, weak demand, and the smaller impact of the Caminho da Escola program are dragging down the pace of Brazil’s bus industry
After posting moderate growth in 2025, although below initial expectations, the Brazilian bus market entered 2026 in contraction, recording a pronounced decline in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Data presented by Anfavea, the association representing chassis manufacturers, show that, despite a punctual rebound in March, the performance of the last three months reinforces a slowdown scenario.
Registrations rebounded and totaled nearly 2,000 units in March, up 50% from February and 9.3% higher than in the same month of 2025. In the quarter to date, however, the result remains negative: 4,400 buses were licensed, representing a 19.6% decline compared with the same period in 2025.
“For the bus market we had projected a 3% decline in 2026 and, through March, the contraction is already above 19%,” says Anfavea president Igor Calvet. According to him, the scenario “is beginning to become concerning,” especially because of the sector’s structural dependence on public programs: “A large part of the market depends on public policy, especially the Caminho da Escola program, which carries a great deal of weight.”
