The Federal National Education Development Fund (FNDE), part of Brazil’s Ministry of Education, has revoked the public tender for the purchase of approximately 7,500 school buses under the Programa Caminho da Escola scheduled for 2026. The cancellation was formally published in early February 2026 to align the procurement with a new law on tax exemptions, which altered fiscal conditions for vehicles eligible in the program.
A fresh tender will be prepared only after updated studies and technical surveys; no timetable has been announced. The original procurement had been suspended in December 2025 amid industry requests for clarifications, including from Volkswagen Caminhões & Ônibus. The cancelled tender would have included 13 different bus models, with capacities ranging from 15 to 60 seats and specifications for rural and urban routes.
The Caminho da Escola program, established in 2007 to support school transportation for students in rural and remote areas, represents a significant source of new bus demand for manufacturers.
Source: Diário do Transporte Read The Article
PSR Analysis. FNDE’s revocation introduces uncertainty into the bus manufacturing market by delaying a major public procurement that was expected to support fleet renewal and stable production volumes in 2026. Aligning the tender with recent tax-exemption changes will require additional technical work and may alter vehicle specifications or cost assumptions.
The lack of a defined relaunch schedule adds timing risk for OEMs and suppliers, potentially compressing order books and affecting capacity planning. While the program’s eventual relaunch could restore demand visibility, interim delays may impact production forecasts and cash flow for industry players with exposure to Caminho da Escola contracts.
Our PSR Brazil office monitors this topic closely, since it may affect a significant portion of bus production in Brazil and all MHV segment in Brazil. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Managing Director, South America, for Power Systems Research
