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Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%
St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
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MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023
Chris Fisher Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.
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Q3 2021 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 10.7%
St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 131 to 117, or 10.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. The year-over-year (Q3 2020 to Q3 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was 141 to 117, or 17%.
Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of…
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Power Systems Research Q3 2021 TPI Slides 10.7%
The Q3 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) declined 10.7% in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. At the same time, the index dropped 17% on a YoY basis.
Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Overall, medium, and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and well into 2022.
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Most Regions Will Post 20%+ Growth in Truck Production
Chris Fisher Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.
Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?
PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.
Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?
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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report
Chris Fisher
Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst
Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.
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Q2 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) climbs 193.5%
St. Paul, MN (July 12, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased 193.5% year-over-year (Q2 2020 to the Q2 2021), moving from 46 to 135. For the three-month period ended June 30, 2021, (Q1 2021 to Q2 2021) the TPI climbed 15.4%, increasing from 117 to 135.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and possibly into 2022.
All Regions. Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck Happenings in Europe
Chris Fisher We have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks. At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.
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Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions
Chris Fisher Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high. Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector.
The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy. However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.
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Q1 2021 Truck Production Report
Chris Fisher
Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.
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