Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.
China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
Q. What type of growth does PSR project and in which segments?
A. At this point, we believe the growth will be in the transit bus and pickup/delivery segments where charging infrastructure is more readily available. Since transit bus purchases are typically controlled by local and state governments, this will be a prime segment for electrification.
Many of the large cities in the United States have committed to 100% adoption of electric transit buses. For example, Los Angeles plans to be all electric by 2030 while Seattle, New York and the state of California plan to have all electric transit buses by 2040. For the regional and long-haul segments, the lack of charging infrastructure will be the most significant barrier to mass truck adoption. Until battery range issues and an adequate charging infrastructure is developed, there is no business case to implement battery electric long-haul trucks. This segment will be relegated to testing and showcasing.
Q. What are PSR’s thoughts on the future of medium and heavy commercial EVs?
A. We think the majority of the transit bus segment will ultimately be electrified as various government mandates will require the cities to be zero emission compliant.
The future of medium and heavy commercial trucks largely remains uncertain since they are still relatively early in the testing phase, and it will be a few years before the testing is complete. For medium and heavy trucks, significant barriers to mass adoption will need to be overcome, including an adequate nationwide charging infrastructure and increased battery range.
Since the trucking industry is for-profit, government regulation and incentives will likely be needed to encourage large scale truck adoption. Even with the recently passed infrastructure legislation, I don’t see large scale adoption in the regional or long-haul segment for at least a decade primarily due to the lack of a robust infrastructure grid nationwide.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may be the best solution to achieving zero-emissions for regional and long-haul trucks over the longer term. However, fuel cell technology is in the very early stages of testing and will require the creation of a significant re-fueling infrastructure.
Q. What are the benefits and challenges of EV technology?
A. Advantages of electric vehicles include elimination of fuel cost and reduced maintenance cost since EV’s have significantly fewer moving parts than the traditional ICE powered commercial vehicle. However, electric commercial vehicles will continue to compete with other technologies such as natural gas and possibly hydrogen fuel cells.
Fuel economy improvements to the traditional engines could also impact electric vehicle adoption rates. One of the biggest challenges is the lack of a nationwide charging infrastructure. This will greatly limit adoption rates in the regional and long-haul truck segments. Other challenges for electric trucks include high up-front costs, battery weight, range anxiety and range reduction in cold weather. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
