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CARB Is Phasing Out Heavy Trucks
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher In April, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted unanimously to finalize its Advanced Clean Fleets rule that requires all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold or registered in the state of California to be zero-emission by 2036.
Among these requirements is a new 2036 target for an end to diesel truck sales. This was lowered from an early 2040 target, with the thought that 2040 would be too late to reach California Governor Gavin Newsom’s goal for 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045.
The 2036 target is only one year after the 2035 target for passenger cars. Also in the rule, state and local agencies must purchase 50% ZEV by 2024, and 100% ZEV by 2027.
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EPA Introduces Phase Three GHG Emission Standards
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher In early May, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) held a virtual public hearing regarding the Phase 3 greenhouse gas emission standards for heavy duty trucks. There are various comments and opinions from the stakeholders that attended the hearing. Along with introducing the Phase 3 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) rules to begin for MY 2028 trucks, the EPA also revised the Phase 2 GHG standards for the MY 2027 truck standards.
This link from CCJ (Commercial Carrier Journal) is a good overview of the conference.
CCJ: ‘Destined to fail’: Trucking sounds off to EPA on new Phase 3 greenhouse-gas regs
The Environmental Protection Agency this week held virtual public hearings related to its Phase 3 greenhouse gas emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks, unveiled last month. Among the dozens who testified during the hearings, trucking industry stakeholders were part of a small minority advocating for EPA to take a step back and reconsider the proposed standards that would take effect beginning with model-year 2027 trucks.
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2022 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 2.9%
St. Paul, MN (April 8, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 108 to 106, or -1.9%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2023, compared to Q4 2022. The year-over-year (Q1 2022 to Q1 2023) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 103 to 106, or 2.9%.
The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE…
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Cummins Agnostic ICE’s and Hydrogen Fuel Update
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher Cummins plans to introduce their agnostic ICE engine platforms with testing to begin in 2024 and series production to start in the 2026/2027 timeframe. The engine platforms use a common base engine. Below the head gasket the engines will mostly have similar components and above the head gasket the engine will have different components for different fuel types. The new platforms will include the B6.7, X10 and the X15 engines. The X10 will ultimately supersede the current L9 and X12 engine platforms.
In North America, Cummins plans to introduce the agnostic engine platforms starting in 2026. Diesel and natural gas will be the first fuel types introduced and hydrogen versions will soon follow.
Sources: FleetOwner Cummins X Series Agnostic Engines Cummins Agnostic Overview
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Charging Infrastructure Blocks BEV Growth
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher According to John O’Leary President and CEO of DTNA, charging infrastructure is the greatest barrier to adoption for battery electric heavy trucks. Speaking to journalists in Las Vegas, he said customers are happy with the electric vehicles they have received but they are unable to expand their fleets with additional electric vehicles primarily due to the lack of charging infrastructure.
“Overwhelmingly, infrastructure is slowing us down in terms of EV deployment,” said Daimler Truck North America President and CEO John O’Leary. “Site prep, permitting, and construction delays all contribute to deployment times being measured in years, not weeks or months.”
“There’s a lot of will in the regulatory and political arenas to make that happen, but when you start talking about moving large megawatt lines of electricity around and building new substations, it just takes time,” he said.
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Q4 2022 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 3.7%
St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
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Acquisitions in Light/Medium EV Segment
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher 2022 has been an interesting year on many commercial vehicle fronts including the medium and light electric commercial truck and van segment. While large established OEMs such as Ford, who is expected to produce approximately 6,500 E-Transits at the Kansas City plant in 2022, there has been some shakeup within the electric commercial vehicle start-ups.
During the past six months, Mullen Automotive, based in Brea, CA, has acquired the assets of the now bankrupt Electric Last Mile (ELMS) company and has acquired 60% of Bollinger Motors, which has yet to start vehicle production.
In September 2022, Mullen Automotive invested $148 million into Bollinger Motors, giving Mullen a 60% share of the company. Bollinger plans on introducing their electric class 3 – 6 lineup of cargo vehicles starting in 2023 and it is likely that Bollinger will also manufacture the Mullen electric light commercial vans also starting production in 2023.
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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck News
NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher During the past few years there has been plenty of talk about battery electric power replacing diesel-powered internal combustion engines in commercial trucks. At some point this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of a sufficient charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries are significant deterrents to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks. However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment. Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks: a lack of refueling infrastructure.
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Power Systems Research Truck Production Index drops 13.7%
Global Truck Production REPORT
St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues. In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe. The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions. There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.
Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China. A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.
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Mexico Truck & Bus Update. Alternative Power Sources Displayed
Show Report: Expotransporte 2022
Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.
Lorena Violante ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.
The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.
During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.
Chris Fisher Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.
According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).
Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.
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