Chris Fisher

  • Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck News

    NORTH AMERICA REPORT

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    During the past few years there has been plenty of talk about battery electric power replacing diesel-powered internal combustion engines in commercial trucks.  At some point this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

    Currently, the lack of a sufficient charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries are significant deterrents to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.  However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment.  Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks: a lack of refueling infrastructure.

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  • Power Systems Research Truck Production Index drops 13.7%

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    Global Truck Production REPORT

    St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.

    The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

    This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

    All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

    Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China.  A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.

    North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 9.3% this year over 2021 as the OEMs continue to struggle with the supply chain disruption that is expected to continue well into next year.   Freight demand continues to remain healthy but is expected to cool as the economy in general slows down primarily due to high inflation and energy costs along with higher interest rates and continued disruption within the overall supply chain.  Within the class 8 truck segment, PSR expects truck demand to remain strong into the first part of next year as a result of significant pent-up heavy truck demand.  PSR


    Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and
    Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

  • Mexico Truck & Bus Update. Alternative Power Sources Displayed

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    Show Report: Expotransporte 2022

    Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.

    Lorena Violante
    Lorena Violante

    ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.

    The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.

    During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.

    According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).

    Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.

    Key Mexican Market Challenges

    Road Mobility and Safety. There´s a new mobility and safety road  law designed to reduce the negative social impacts (inequality, economic, health and environmental) with the objective of also reducing road accidents and deaths. This law became effective in May 2022, and is being implemented in different states.

    Environmental Regulations. The next change in Mexico on environmental regulations will be the EPA10/EUROVI on Dec. 1, 2025. However, the timely implementation of this regulation depends mainly on the availability of ultra-low sulfur diesel and the government environmental approvals to implement it.

    Supply Chain Crisis. The effects and disruption on supply chains caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the cargo ship crisis and the Russian-Ukraine war have made components delivery times much longer, from one or two months to six months and more. This situation applies to semiconductors and many other parts. It is expected that some companies could solve this problem by the end of this year and many others will solve the problem next year.

    Operator Shortage. There is a global shortage of drivers, not only in the US and Mexico, but Mexico has a double problem. The shortage of drivers in Mexico is made worse because Mexican drivers are migrating to work some months in the US with a legal international license and with an authorized visa.

    Vehicle Fleet Renewals. There´s not an existing culture to renew fleets in Mexico and there is no enforcement to retire old vehicles, so this is another challenge the country is facing today.

    Energy Infrastructure. Mexico does not have enough ultra-low sulfur diesel. Also, there are only 65 public gas stations for vehicles, 9000 diesel stations and 38 electric stations (only 15 of them are used by HD vehicles, the rest are in other locations like parking lots).

    Expotransporte ANPACT 2022

    Vehicles Using Alternative Power Sources Displayed

    We visited ExpoTransporte in October in the state of Puebla. This show is the most important truck and bus show in Latin America. This show is equal in organization and quality to those held in Europe and the United States. It is a major venue where OEMs, suppliers, transportation companies and owner operators  meet to do business and create alliances. It´s a leading event to promote the transportation industry in the country.

    While walking the show, we were able to see applied technologies such as diesel, natural gas, hybrids and electric options in vehicles. Some are already offered in the market and others are expected to be offered in the near future.

    Isuzu. Showcased some of their EuroVI units to be offered in the market once the emission regulation comes in place to Mexico. This includes the ELF400Z (Euro VI, Urea) which is a 4 cylinder diesel engine; also the Forward 800 EURO VI (4Hk1tcs 6 cylinder diesel engine)

    Kenworth. Exhibited current diesel models, like the T680 Next Gen available with a Cummins X15 or a Paccar MX-13. Also some of the new products that we could see were their mid-range 100% electric truck K270E made at their plant in Mexicalli which started to be sold in 2022 (so far exported to the US). Another model exhibited was the T380 CNG, a mid-range truck with a Cummins natural gas engine B6.7N

    Volkswagen.  The manufacturer introduced the e-Delivery, their first electric truck 100% developed and made in Mexico and Brazil . It´s available in 11 and 14 tons

    International. The LT model with a Cummins engine X15 Euro V/ VI available in 2023. Also presented the eMV and the eCE bus electric models

    Shacman. A relatively new entrant in the Mexican market is Shacman. The Chinese manufacturer entered the Mexican market about two years ago. It´s led by Carlos Pardo, their managing director. They assemble some units today in the state of Hidalgo and have plans to expand their operation to a larger site. They exhibited their heavy duty trucks L3000 and X3000 powered by Cummins or Weichai engines. Shacman also offers trucks with natural gas engines.

    Freightliner. This manufacturer presented the eCascadia and eM2, 100% electric heavy duty trucks powered by Detroit ePowertrain. Today, these units were exhibited as the first step towards an introduction in the country that will need a huge coordination between the manufacturer, the government and customers to make these trucks driving on the Mexican highways a reality.

    Hino. Presented some of their current models like the Series 500 trucks, and also their latest  technologies like their hybrid Series 300 trucks (Models 516HV, 616HV and (816HV) and the new Series 200 trucks to be introduced in 2023 . Also exhibited were their new electric technologies with two models. The Hino Dutro Z EV was introduced this year in the Japanese market and still is not sold in Mexico. The other electric model is a prototype, which Hino intends to introduce to the Mexican market. Hino offers today a broad range in the Mexican market with about 30 models.

    Cummins. Exhibited their X15 Euro VI engine with no EGR system.   PSR

    Lorena Violante is Senior Market Research ConsultantMexico, for Power Systems Research

    Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst for Power Systems Research

  • Navistar Introduces S13 Engine Platform

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    Navistar says it plans to introduce the Navistar 12.7 liter S13 engine platform in the fourth quarter of 2023.  The S13 engine is based upon the Scania DC13 engine and will supersede the current 12.4 liter A26 engine platform starting next year.  The initial engine installations will be standard on the LT and RH truck platforms and will be introduced to the HV and HX platforms in 2024.  The order books are expected to open in October.

    The S13 engine will be paired with the…

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  • Daimler Beefs Up Western Star Brand


    For a number of years, we have been hearing rumors that Daimler will likely put the Western Star truck brand out to pasture, primarily due to the brand’s low market share in the class 8 truck segment.  However, this does not appear to be the case. 

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    During the past two years, Western Star has upgraded or is planning to upgrade their entire truck lineup based upon their current platforms.

    Western Star typically focuses on the on-highway vocational side of the heavy truck segment along with other niche applications.  DTNA has recently placed an emphasis on the on-highway vocational segment with both the Freightliner and Western Star brands.

    The vocational truck segment represents approximately 25% of the class 8 truck market. This is somewhat low volume when compared to the class 8 freight segment, but the vocational trucks are highly profitable for the OEMs. Also having more diversification within the heavy truck market somewhat shields the OEMs from the volatility of the freight only segment.

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  • Cummins Develops Hydrogen-Powered Engines

    NORTH AMERICAN REPORT
    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    Cummins, Inc., is working to develop hydrogen-powered engines, using approaches for  Hydrogen combustion engines and hydrogen fuel cells.

    Both hydrogen engines and hydrogen fuel cells are better suited for long haul and many regional-haul truck applications than pure battery electric vehicles.

    In North America, Cummins plans to introduce hydrogen internal combustion engines across their existing engine platforms starting in 2024. 

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  • Q1 2022 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Drops 4.4%

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    ST. PAUL, MN — The year-over-year (Q1 2021 to Q1 2022) Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 114 to 109, or 4.4%. For the three-month period ended March 31, 2022, Q1 2022, the TPI decreased 9.2%, declining from 120 to 109.

    The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

    This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

  • Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing

    Autonomous Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.

    Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment.  Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.

    The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology.  Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway.  It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.

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  • NA Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing

    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
    A.
    From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective.  Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge. 

    China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric.  While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing.  In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice.  However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.

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  • Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

    Jim Downey
    Jim Downey
    Chris Fisher
    Chris Fisher

    ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

    The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

    This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database…

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