Chris Fisher

St. Paul, MN (July 22, 2020)— Global truck production was battered by the COVID-19 in Q2 2020, and this decline is reflected in the Q2 2020 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI). The TPI plummeted from 80 to 34, or 57.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2020, compared to Q1 2020. The year-over-year (Q2 2019 to Q2 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 131 to 34, or 74%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions: Apart from China, all regions experienced a significant decline in medium and heavy truck production during the first half of the year.  Most of the decline was caused by the Coronavirus.

Global Index: Globally, production will decline this year as a result of the pandemic.  However, the worst appears to be over and a gradual improvement in commercial vehicle demand is expected.

North America: Commercial truck demand has declined significantly during the first half of the year, primarily due to the impact of the Coronavirus and concerns about future truck demand.  This along with overcapacity in the market and heavy vehicle inventories at the end of last year will continue to place negative pressure on production moving forward.  However, the worst appears to be behind us, but production is expected to be somewhat variable during the remainder of the year.

Europe: For the first five months of the year, European medium and heavy truck demand was 40% lower than the same period last year.  Numerous truck plants were idled during March through May which led to a sharp decline in production.  However, the market appears to have stabilized and demand is expected to improve later this year. Prior to the outbreak of the Coronavirus, European truck demand was expected to be down around 15% due to a slowing economy.

South Asia: With extended lockdowns driven by COVID- 19 in most parts of India, the production of all non-essentials was at miniscule production levels in April and May, until the economy recently was opened.  As the economy recovers from lockdown and operations resume, our forecast assumes that there won’t be another shutdown.  The other South Asian countries also are experiencing lower production levels primarily due to the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak.

South America: Commercial vehicle production was relatively strong during Q1 2020 before declining sharply in April and May as many truck plants were idled.  While the negative effects of the virus are expected to continue, production should gradually improve through the last half of the year.

Japan/Korea: Global demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles declined sharply during Q2 2020 which resulted in plants being idled in both Japan and Korea.  Overall, production appears to be back on-line.  However, global demand is expected to remain soft for the remainder of the year.  It should be noted that a significant amount of commercial truck production in this region is exported throughout the global market.

Greater China: Except for February, medium and heavy truck production remained strong during the first half of the year.  Truck production in April and May was particularly strong.  However, bus production declined sharply but is expected to improve throughout the remainder of the year. 

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2020 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2020.  PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 122 to 84, or 31.1%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020, from Q4 2019. The year-over-year (Q1 2019 to Q1 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 116 to 84, or 27.6%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions: Prior to the spread of the Coronavirus, most regions were experiencing a slowdown in commercial truck demand. Depending on the duration of the virus, several countries are expected to slip into recession or a significant economic slowdown as a result.

Global Index: The possibility of a global recession now exists but it is uncertain how severe this may be. Some regions will fair better than others.

North America: The introduction of the Coronavirus along with an overcapacity of heavy trucks will lead to significantly lower demand in 2020. Prior to the Coronavirus outbreak, concerns about the Chinese tariffs and an overall slowdown in global economic growth were causing some headwinds for truck demand. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (Oct. 16, 2019)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 128 to 1116, or 9.4%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2019, from Q2 2019. The year-over-year (Q3 2018 to Q3 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 120 to 116, or 3.3%.

Total global truck production for Q3 2019 was 1,431,959, down from 1,481,020 in Q3 2018.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: Much like the global economy, medium and heavy truck demand has slowed this year and is expected to remain soft throughout 2020.  Currently, a global recession is not forecasted but a cooling off is expected over the longer term.

All Regions: Commercial truck demand in North America and portions of Eastern Europe have been relatively strong for much of the year while most other regions have experienced a slowdown.  PSR expects a continued slowdown in medium and heavy truck demand for most regions in 2020.

North America: While demand for medium and heavy commercial trucks have been very strong this year, a slowdown in demand has started and PSR expects significantly lower class 8 truck production in 2020 as a result of a slowing economy, lower freight rates, uncertainty surrounding the tariff situation and an overcapacity of heavy trucks in the market.

Europe: Demand for medium and heavy commercial trucks continues to slow in Western Europe as the global economy has weakened and trade tariffs are having a negative impact on the European economy.  Germany is currently teetering on recession as demand for vehicles has declined in recent months.

South Asia: Medium and heavy truck demand has been slowing throughout the year as the global economy is experiencing some weakness which is expected to continue into 2020.  After very strong demand in India over the past few years, the market is at overcapacity.  This, along with the introduction of the BS-VI emission regulations on April 1, 2020,^, will continue to put pressure demand.  Commercial vehicles that do not meet BS-VI emissions standards cannot be sold in India after April 1^, 2020.

South America: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase by 5.2% this year, driven by Brazilian production.  Improved demand in both the domestic and export markets continue to drive sales.  After several years of low demand as a result of relatively young fleets and a very poor economy, demand started to improve during the past few years as the truck companies needed to replace their older trucks.

Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 2.7% this year as both the domestic and export economies slow.  Some of the decline in exports may be attributed to uncertainty surrounding tariffs.  Most of the production in Japan is for export which provides for very diverse vehicle markets.

Greater China: Medium and heavy truck demand is expected to decline slightly this year primarily due to a slowing economy, relatively high truck capacity and higher truck prices partly due to the cost of emission technology.  Lower freight rates are also pressuring truck demand.  It is unknown how much of an impact the trade tariffs play into this.  The combination of a slowing economy and relatively high truck capacity, demand is expected to be soft during the next few years.  

Power Systems Research has been tracking the production of engines and their use around the world for more than 40 years. We’re the leading company in the world doing this research and building these databases.

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For information on our products and services, call +1 651-905-8400 or email us at info@powersys.com. PSR

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research
Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research

ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 106 to 120, or 13.2%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2019, from Q1 2019. The year-over-year (Q2 2018 to Q2 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 120, or 1.6%.

Commercial truck demand in North America and portions of Eastern Europe is expected to be relatively strong for much of the year, at the same time most other regions are experiencing a slowdown. PSR expects a continued slowdown in medium and heavy truck demand for most regions in 2020.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: Much like the global economy, medium and heavy truck demand is expected to slow this year and into 2020. Currently, a global recession is not forecasted but rather a cooling off is expected. According to IHS Markit, global GDP was 3.2% in 2018 and is forecasted to edge down to 2.9% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020. These indicators align with what PSR is seeing in the global medium and heavy truck market.

North America: While demand for medium and heavy commercial trucks has been strong this year, order rates have started to decline more than expected and some 2019 build slots have opened in the class 8 segment. Class 8 demand has started to slow as freight rates
continue to deteriorate. It is believed that an overall slowing of the market along with concerns about a trade war is affecting demand.

Europe: Overall, sales and production for medium and heavy commercial trucks in Europe is expected to be flat this year compared with 2018. Production in Western Europe is expected to decline by 4% while production in Eastern Europe is expected to increase by 15.5% as the trucking companies continue to replace older vehicles.

South Asia: After very strong demand in the medium and heavy truck segment during the past few years, it appears the regional economies are cooling somewhat, and production is expected to decline by 14% this year over 2018. The decline is expected to be led by India with a drop of 16% this year. Truck overcapacity of 15% – 18%, along with an overall slowdown in the automotive segment, will contribute to this. The implementation of the BSVI emission regulations in April 2020, also will have a negative impact as the OEMs begin equipping trucks with the higher cost emission technology throughout the year.

South America: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase by 7% this year, driven by Brazilian production. Improved demand in both the domestic and export markets continues to drive sales. After several years of low demand as a result of relatively young fleets and a very poor economy, demand started to improve during the past few years as the truck companies needed to replace their older trucks.

Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 2% this year as both the domestic and export economies slow. Some of the decline in exports may be attributed to uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Most of the production in Japan is for export, which provides for very diverse vehicle markets. Greater China: Medium and heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to a slowing economy, relatively high truck capacity and higher truck prices partly due to the cost of emission technology and lower freight rates. It is unknown how much of an impact the trade tariffs play into this. Given the combination of a slowing economy and relatively high truck capacity, demand is expected to be soft during the next few years.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2019 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2019. PSR

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 115 to 109, or 5.2%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2019, from the fourth quarter of 2018. The year-over-year (Q1 2018 to Q1 2019) change for the PSR-TPI was basically flat,  moving from 110 to 109, or .91%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database of commercial vehicles maintained by Power Systems Research.

Here is the analysis of changes by region.

Summary: Commercial truck demand in North America and portions of Eastern Europe are expected to be relatively strong for much of the year while most other regions are experiencing a slowdown.  However, no regional recessions are expected.

Global Index: Much like the global economy, medium and heavy truck demand is expected to slow this year and into 2020.  Currently, a global recession is not forecasted. However, a cooling off is expected.  According to IHS Markit, global GDP was 3.2% in 2018 and is expected to edge down to 3.1% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020.

North America: Medium and heavy commercial truck demand continued to be strong during the first quarter driven by the current state of the economy.  Class 8 truck demand is expected to remain strong through most of the year, but a cyclical slowdown is expected toward the end of 2019 into 2020.  The medium duty segment continues to enjoy strong consumer and vocational demand.

Europe: Despite the slowing European economy primarily due to weak external demand and political uncertainty, MHCV sales are expected to remain relatively strong this year.  Demand in Eastern Europe is expected to be stronger than Western Europe as the trucking companies continue their replacement demand.

South Asia: After exceptionally high sales during the past two years, MHCV demand is expected to decline in 2019 primarily due to weakness in India.  Truck overcapacity of 15% – 18%, along with an overall slowdown in the automotive segment will contribute to this situation.  With the industry focusing on the BS-VI emission regulations scheduled for implementation in April 2020, we can expect some choppy demand toward the end of the year.

South America: Primarily driven by Brazil, MHCV demand continues to improve after several years of poor sales as a result of a weak economy.  Domestic and export sales started to improve in 2017 and continued through last year.  While truck exports are the main reason for this increase, domestic demand has also significantly improved during the past year.

Japan/Korea: Demand for MHCV’s is expected to decline slightly this year as both the domestic and export economies slow.  Most of the production in Japan is for export which provides for very diverse vehicle markets.

Greater China: After two years of very high demand in the heavy commercial truck segment, demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to a slowing economy and relatively high truck capacity and higher truck prices partly due to the cost of emission technology and lower freight rates.  The combination of a slowing economy and relatively high truck capacity, demand is expected to be soft during the next few years.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in July 2019 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q2 2019.  PSR

ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 115 to 118, or 2.6%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2018, from Q3 2018. The year-over-year (Q4 2017 to Q4 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was 3.5%, climbing 4 points from 114 to 118.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research..

Except for North America, most of the other key regions are beginning to see an economic slowdown. Regarding the commercial truck market, a slowing global economy along with generally strong truck sales during the past few years is placing downward pressure on commercial vehicle adoption rates.   

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 124 to 112, or 9.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2018, from Q2 2018. The year-over-year (Q3 2017 to  Q3 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 110 to 112, or 1.8%.

Commercial vehicle demand in 2018, has been particularly strong in North America, Brazil, Russia and India while demand is expected to decline sharply in China after very strong sales in 2017.  Demand in Japan/Korea is also in decline. Outside of China and Japan/Korea, medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand in the other regions is trending higher this year.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Commercial vehicle demand globally in 2018, has been particularly strong in North America, Brazil, Russia and India while demand is expected to decline sharply in China after very strong sales in 2017.  Demand in Japan/Korea is also in decline. Outside of China and Japan/Korea, medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand in the other regions is trending higher this year. 
 
In North America, production levels for class 8 trucks continue to be strong, driven by record order levels that are expected to continue well into 2019.  Order boards basically are filled through H1 2019.  The strong economy is driving the need to replace or expand the fleets.  While not as strong as the heavy truck segment, the medium truck segment is having another good year, driven largely by strong consumer and vocational demand.

Medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase by 4.8% in Greater Europe this year over 2017.  Production in Western Europe should increase by 1.8%, while production in Eastern Europe could increase by 15.7% as the fleets continue to replace their aging trucks. 

After weak demand in Eastern Europe over the past few years a recovery in demand is in full swing.  While demand in Western Europe has slowed somewhat this year, it continues to be historically strong.

Strong demand in South Asia, led by demand in India, should boost production for medium and heavy trucks in South Asia this year by 10% over 2017.  Production in India is expected to increase by 11.1% this year after a soft 2017, primarily due to the implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations which increased the cost of the trucks.  Additional infrastructure spending is expected to boost demand in India during the next few years.

After several years with very low medium and heavy truck demand, domestic and export sales in South America started to improve last year and South American production is expected to increase by 12.9% in 2018, led by Brazil.  While truck exports are a main reason for this increase, domestic demand also has  improved significantly during the past year. Demand in Argentina is expected to soften as the country struggles with its economy.

Medium and heavy truck demand in Japan/Korea is expected to continue its decline by falling 9.7% this year as softness in domestic demand continues to impede the manufacturers.  Japanese production should decline by 9.7% while production in South Korea should fall by 7.1%, compared with last year.  Production continues to be transferred from Japan and Korea closer to their traditional export markets.
 
Because of China’s GB1589 regulations to control overloading of trucks last year, commercial truck demand in that country was very strong in 2017 and into the first eight months of 2018.  However, truck capacity is now relatively high and with higher truck prices partly due to the cost of emission technology and lower freight rates, demand is expected to decline in Q4 2018 and during the next few years.   PSR

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

The PSR Truck Production Index is produced by Chris Fisher, PSR Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst and Jim Downey, PSR Vice President- Global Data Products.  

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 113 to 127, or 12.4%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2018, from the Q1 2018. The year-over-year (Q2 2017 to Q2 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was 124 to 127, or 2.4%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: On a global basis, commercial vehicle demand is expected to remain strong through the rest of the year and into 2019. Outside of Japan and Korea, production levels are relatively strong or are showing good improvement in all other regions.

North America: In 2018, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 14.7% over last year, driven by extremely strong class 8 demand along with continued strength in the medium duty (class 4-7) segment.  Production levels for class 8 trucks are expected to increase by 26.6% this year while medium truck production is expected to remain strong and increase by 1.3% over 2017.

Europe: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase by 5.4% in Greater Europe this year over 2017.  Production in Western Europe should increase by 2.6% while production in Eastern Europe could increase by 15.2% as the fleets continue to replace their aging trucks.  After weak demand in Eastern Europe over the past few years a recovery in demand is in full swing.  Demand in Western Europe continues to be relatively strong this year.

South Asia: Medium and heavy commercial truck demand in South Asia is expected to improve this year over 2017.  Production for medium and heavy trucks should increase by 15.1%, led by stronger demand in India.  Production in India is expected to increase by 20% this year after a soft 2017 primarily due to the implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations which increased the cost of the trucks.  Additional infrastructure spending is expected to boost demand in India during the next few years.

South America: After several years with very low medium and heavy truck demand, domestic and export sales started to improve last year and production in South America is expected to increase by 20% in 2018 driven by Brazil.  While truck exports are a main reason for this increase, domestic demand has also significantly improved during the past year.  Production in Venezuela has stopped.

Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy truck demand is expected to continue its decline by falling 7.4% this year as softness in domestic demand continues to impede the manufacturers.  Japanese production should decline by 7.5% while production in South Korea should fall by 5.3% compared with last year.  Production continues to be transferred from Japan and Korea closer to their traditional export markets.

Greater China: Through the first four months of 2018, relatively strong medium and heavy truck demand continued in China and is expected to remain at replacement levels through the rest of the year.  Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 8.3% this year while heavy truck production is expected to decline by 11% compared to 2017.  With the introduction of the GB1589 regulations to control overloading of trucks last year, commercial truck demand very strong in 2017. 

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

The PSR Truck Production Index is produced by Chris Fisher, PSR Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst and Jim Downey, PSR Vice President- Global Data Products.  PSR

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 114 to 107, or 6.1%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2018, from Q4 2017. The year-over-year (Q1 2017 to Q1 2018) loss for the PSR-TPI was one point (108 to 107), or .93%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: Commercial vehicle demand in 2018, is expected to be particularly strong in North America, Brazil, Russia and India while demand is expected to decline sharply in China after very strong sales in 2017. With the exception of China and Japan/Korea, medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand in the other regions is trending higher this year.

North America: In 2018, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 13.8% over last year, driven by extremely strong class 8 demand combined with continued strength in the medium duty (class 4-7) segment.  Production levels for class 8 trucks are expected to exceed 300,000 trucks this year as a result of a very strong economy and high freight demand.  Demand in the medium duty segment will be driven in part by continued strength in the vocational segment.

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

The PSR Truck Production Index is produced by Chris Fisher, PSR Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst and Jim Downey, PSR Vice President- Global Data Products.  PSR