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DataPoint. NA Tillers 2020 Forecast: 261,100 Units
The 261,100 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of tillers to be produced in North America (Mexico and the U.S.) in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With combined plant totals of 52%, MTD leads in production of tillers in North America. In second position is Schiller Grounds Care with 33%, and in third place is Honda Power with 5.5%.
Exports: Mexico exports up to 65% of its production, and the U.S. ships up to 35% of its production worldwide.
Trends: Production of Tillers in North America decreased nearly 16% in 2019, compared to 2018. Production is expected to drop an additional 10% in 2020. The decline is attributed to Husqvarna discontinuing their line of tillers along with a lull in demand for new products.
In recent years, there has been a steady demand for tillers in both the commercial and residential sectors. Driven by an acceleration in GDP growth, consumers will be increasingly willing to spend their disposable incomes on durable goods, landscaping services, and recreational activities, thereby boosting demand for both consumer and commercial outdoor power equipment.
It’s possible that COVID-19 may cause a production decline, but this impact may be only minor because homeowners are keeping up their yards and creating flower beds, etc. Expect production to increase 10% by 2025. PSR
Carol Turner, is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, at Power Systems Research
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Powersports Industry Leading Economic Comeback
The Powersports industry–featuring ATVs, motorcycles and watercraft–appears to be leading the way on the road to economic recovery. According to Motorcycle & Powersports News magazine, this increased demand for powersports is helping values bounce back from historic lows.
Michael Aistrup According to Scott Yarbrough, senior analyst for motorcycle and powersports at Black Book: “After the first month of the COVID-19, shutdowns put a freeze on powersports values during the beginning of the spring selling season, and the second month saw dramatic declines.
This month values are up across the board, some by the largest amounts we have ever seen in a monthly update. A combination of surprisingly strong demand, coupled with drops in availability of units, has led to this resurgence in values,”
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On-Highway Batteries Serve as Emergency Backup Power
Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.
Tyler Wiegert For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.
EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.
Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.
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MotorIndia Sponsors Commercial Vehicle Webinar
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms…
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COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
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Pepsico Acquires 18 Scania Trucks Fueled by NG / Biomethane in Brazil
After the first sale of NG trucks at Fenatran in October 2019, Scania has sold 22 more, including 18 to Pepsico. The forecast of 100 NG Trucks to be sold this year has been reduced because of the pandemic effect.
Source: Estadao Read The Article
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DATAPOINT: US Lawn & Garden Tractors, 2020 Forecast: 681,500 Units
681,500 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Lawn & Garden Tractors to be produced in the United States in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 38% of total units produced, Husqvarna leads in production of Lawn & Garden Tractors in North America. In second position, with combined plant totals, is MTD with 33%; third, also with combined plant totals, is Deere & Co. with 24%.
Exports: Up to 25% worldwide.
Trends: In 2019, production of Lawn & Garden Tractors in North America (US) increased nearly 8%, but production is expected to drop 16% in 2020. The gain in 2019 was the result of increased demand for new fuel-efficient models combined with the demand for new equipment. Latest models offer a variety of features for home buyers based on yard size (acreage). Entry-level lawn riders are suited for 1.5 acres or less and usually have 1-cylinder engines.
Mid-grade riders have twin cylinder engines with high HP’s that work well in large cutting areas. The forecasted decline is caused by the temporary lull in production of the Craftsman line along with unfavorable mowing conditions (wet spring) and the saturation of new products in the market.
COVID-19 may play a factor in the manufacturing decrease because of plant shutdowns, however production can easily ramp up to meet demand for these seasonal items. Production is expected increase up to 5% by 2025; lifespan of this product is about 10 years. PSR
Carol Turner Is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, Power Systems Research
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Samuel Libaire Wins Power Systems Research $2,500 Eagan Scholarship
Samuel Libaire, a senior at Eagan High School, Eagan, Minnesota, has received the 2020 Power Systems Research $2,500 academic scholarship.
He will use the scholarship to study Computer Science at Vanderbilt University.
“My favorite subject is computer science,” says Samuel. “It is one of the only subjects that can have multiple solutions to a single problem while also proving instantly that some don’t work. In many sciences, theories are never 100% true, but in computer science, a program either works perfectly or it simply doesn’t.”
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Pandemic Disruptions Hinder Auto Battery Adoption
My other article in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News describes how home battery systems, even though they are not themselves viable products for most consumers, still benefit from a virtuous cycle of product improvement and investment because of the relative success of battery-powered vehicles and other battery-powered products.
Tyler Wiegert But the COVID-19 pandemic has not missed those drivers. Venture Beat magazine reports that investors are largely avoiding lithium this year, preferring to safeguard cash until the economy starts to improve. The delay in funding could have several knock-on effects.
One is consolidation in the industry. Ganfeng Lithium is picking up a lithium project from Lithium Americas, a smaller operation. Fewer, larger players in the market later on might have price consequences for lithium adoption after the economy improves and demand for those goods increases.
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The Lithium Revolution Has Yet To Come Home
This article is being written the week after SpaceX successfully brought two astronauts to the International Space Station, which has been celebrated across the country as a great achievement for the United States Space program.I certainly share the feeling that it is good to be back in space, but there is also this lingering feeling that 50 years after we landed on the moon, we might be somewhere further along than just getting back into space on American-piloted rockets.
Tyler Wiegert Combining that with a pandemic that has brought us to a public health and economic situation more appropriate for the early 20th century than the early 21st century, and protests over racial inequality issues that many hoped we’d be further along with 60 years after the Civil Rights movement, it feels appropriate to reflect on the phenomenon of future-hype.
The blog article Why Have Home Battery Forecasts Been Staggeringly Wrong for Years? examines the future-hype specifically around home battery systems. Specifically, why were predictions made only four years ago, not 50 or 60 or 100 years ago, so wrong about where home battery systems would be now?
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