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DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Production of Tractors
101,500 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of tractors to be produced in North America during 2021. In this report, we consider North America to include Canada, Mexico and the United States.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With combined plant totals of 75% Deere leads in production of AG tractors in North America with about 63,200 units. In second position is Kubota (8,000 units) with 9.5%. Third is Case with about 8%.
Worldwide Distribution: Canada exports about 75% of its North American Ag Tractor production, Mexico, about 60%, and the United States, up to 45% of its total production.
Trends: In 2020, production of Ag tractors in North America decreased nearly 24% to only 84,600 units. Production is expected to rebound 20% in 2021 to more than 101,500 units. COVID-19 related factors played a role in the decline last year, especially for parts availability and equipment inventory levels. Expect production to increase 10% by 2025. PSR
Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research
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DATAPOINT: 2021 North America Combines
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Combine production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 North American production of combines. When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean the United States only.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:39
Combines, overall, boost crop output and farm income. We expect that production of these units in North America this year will be about 6300 units. That would be up about 400 units or 7 1/2% from 2020. The gain is mainly due to increased optimism by farmers regarding their future prospects.
01:05
In 2020 we saw a huge drop from the previous year. 2020 production was 5850. Down nearly 8%, or about 500 units, from 2019. Even with an increase this year, annual production will still be slightly less than that of 2019, when 6400 units were built. Production this year will be about flat with 2019.
01:33
As much as 30% of US production of combines is shipped worldwide.
COVID-19 related factors played a role in the decline in 2020, of course; especially for parts availability and the drop in orders for new machinery.
Sales of combines picked up in the fourth quarter last year after a tough spring for sales.
Curt Blades, Senior VP of Agriculture for AEM, “The increase reflects farmer sentiment about the future of their operations.” he says. “It’s really a good early indicator of whether folks are enthusiastic about where markets are headed.”
This is a favorable sign. A few years ago, farmers were reluctant to buy or trade in pricey equipment because of lower commodity prices. In 2017, for example, production and purchases of new combines rebounded. The gain was attributed to an increase in commodity prices, such as corn and soybeans, that peaked in 2013 and 2014.
Expect production of combines in the US to gain as much as 10% by 2025.
02:47
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, EnginLink — which provides engine production, forecast, and specification data.
Look for Datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and Ag related equipment.
03:17
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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PowerTALK™ News, October 2021
Download PDFIN THIS ISSUE read about how global truck production dropped in the third quarter and what the forecast is moving into 2022. Also in this issue, read Yosyf Sheremeta’s optimistic economic forecast for North America into 2022.
- Global Truck Production : TPI Drops 10.7%
- DataPoint: NA Combines
- North America: Economic Growth Continues into 2022
- Europe: CNH Acquires Sampierana SPA
- South America
- Komatsu To Expand Autonomous Truck Operation
- VW To Develop Niobium Battery
- Motorcycle In-Service Population Grows
- China Faces Restrictions on Power and Production
- Japan: TSMC Plans Plant in Japan
- South Korea: Diesel Scrappage Program Ineffective
- Southeast Asia: Auto Production Down Sharply
- India: Personal Mobility Segment Slumps
- Russia
- KAMAZ Nine-Month Production Up 21%
- Russian’s September Car Sales Drop 22.6%
- Almaz-Antey Group Eyes Hydrogen Cells
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Power Systems Research Q3 2021 TPI Slides 10.7%
Download PDF
The Q3 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) declined 10.7% in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. At the same time, the index dropped 17% on a YoY basis.
Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Overall, medium, and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and well into 2022.
North America. While freight demand continues to be strong particularly in the consumer segment, the continued worker shortage along with on-going supply chain disruptions are hurting vehicle production across all segments. The production disruptions are expected to continue well into 2022. While the overall economy is expected to remain strong through next year, rising inflation will continue to be a concern moving forward.
Europe. During the first six months of the year, European medium and heavy commercial truck registrations improved by 33.1% compared to the same period in 2020. While truck order bookings remain strong, Europe is facing the same problems as other regions with various supply chain disruptions. Most OEMs have been forced to scale back production due to a lack of components most notably, semi-conductor chips.
Greater China. Heavy truck demand during the first half of the year was strong primarily due to a truck pre-buy ahead of the China VI emission standard implementation in July 2021. The costs of the emission technology for China VI vehicles are not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 21% this year over 2020 before bottoming out in 2022.
South Asia. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in India is expected to reach 265,000 vehicles in 2021 which is an increase of 63% over last year. Slight demand growth in India is expected in 2022 and 2023 before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year. In India, the focus is moving toward more infrastructure spending which is good for the vocational market. However, increasing use of rail freight, worker shortages and increasing commodity prices will likely slow truck demand during the next few years.
Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 18% this year over 2020. South Korean production is expected to increase by 24% this year and Japanese production is forecasted to improve by 17%. Earlier in the year, Japan was hit particularly hard by supply chain disruptions.
South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 48.8% this year over 2020 with truck production improving by 57.5%. Increased vaccinations and an overall improving regional and global economy are driving the growth in vehicle demand. However, continued supply chain disruptions are negatively impacting production and this trend is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year.
The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in January 2022 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q4 2021.
Power Systems Research has been tracking the production of engines and their use around the world for 45 years. We’re the leading company in the world doing this research and building these databases.
We have many of the largest companies in the world as our customers, including John Deere and Caterpillar. They subscribe to our unique databases, and their facilities around the world access our data and forecasts through the internet 24/7.
We’re based in St. Paul, Minnesota, and we have offices and analysts located around the world, from Brussels to Beijing and Tokyo to Brazil, to help us collect and analyze this data.
For information on our products and services, call +1 651-905-8400 or email us at info@powersys.com. Learn more about Power Systems Research at www.powersys.com. PSR
Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research
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DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Motorcycle Production
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Motorcycle production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss a datapoint covering 2021 North American production of on-road motorcycles.
When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean Mexico and the United States only. For purposes of this podcast, the motorcycle unit is defined as any two-wheeled on-road vehicle. Other three-wheeled vehicles such as the BRP Spyder and the Polaris Slingshot are classified as motorcycles by the Department of Transportation, but they are included in other of our production reports.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:58
We expect that production of the motorcycle units in North America this year will be about 525400 units. That would be up about 7100 units, or almost 16%, from 2020. The gain is mainly due to increased production by Italika in Mexico.
In 2020, we saw a huge drop in production from the previous year. 2020 production was 453300 units. Down nearly 19%, or about 104000 units, from 2019.
Even with a strong increase this year, annual production will still be 32000 units less than that of 2019, when 557400 units were built. This years production is still down about 6% from 2019.
01:56
Mexico-based Italika leads in the production of on road motorcycles with 54% of total units produced in North America. In second position is Harley-Davidson with 44%, and 3rd is Polaris Industries, with only about 2%.
As much as 20% of US production of on-road motorcycles is shipped worldwide. Leading producer Italika exports throughout Central and South America to countries such as Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Peru, Brazil and Puerto Rico.
Italika reports record first half 2021 sales of 480000 units for all products; up 33% from 2020 and up about 2% from 2019, thanks to outstanding performance in Mexico. The company has plans to expand its Toluca plant to make up to 750000 units per year. Sales demand is being driven by the fact that motorcycles are a more affordable alternative to using mass transit. The increase is attributed to the demand for new fuel efficient models along with seasonably warm spring and fall weather. Lower pricing has also led to an increase in purchases.
03:13
However, the motorcycle market overall is losing buyers. Industry’s observer notes that baby boomers have been the main target in the motorcycle industry for the last four decades; but, millennials have not been purchasing motorcycles. This is mostly due to age and financial factors.
Boosted by COVID-19 factors, expect production to gain as much as 10% by 2025.
03:41
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production forecast and specification data.
Look for datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and on-highway vehicles.
04:09
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the PSR website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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DATAPOINT: 2021 Tactical Military Vehicles
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Tactical Military Equipment production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations, at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss a datapoint covering 2021 North American production of tactical military equipment.
When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean Canada and the United States. For purposes of this podcast, the tactical military equipment is defined as any tracked and wheeled vehicle for land-based military transport and activity.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:52
We expect that production of these units in North America this year will be about 7400 units. That would be up about 1200 units, or 20% from last year.
In 2020 we saw a big drop from the previous year. 2020 production was down nearly 24%, or nearly 2000 units from 2019.
As much as 70% of North American production of tactical military equipment is shipped worldwide.
01:26
Oshkosh Defense leads in the production of these military units with 52% of total units produced. In second position is AM General with about 39%, and 3rd is General Dynamics Land Systems with combined plant totals of about 4%.
01:46
Orders for new military equipment are on the increase along with the remanufacturing of existing units.
The outlook is especially positive for Oshkosh Defense, which produces the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, dubbed the JTLV. This unit is expected to replace a large number of the humvee fleets now operated by the Army and the Marines. According to the Marine Corps, orders for the JTLV could increase significantly in the coming years as interest grows among Defense Department customers and overseas allies. Oshkosh Defense, which has delivered more than 100,000 tactical armored vehicles, has been selected as the prime contractor.
Expect production to increase up to 10% over the next five years as defense budgets increase for new military vehicles.
02:43
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production, forecasts, and specification data.
Look for datapoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and on-highway vehicles.
03:12
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the PSR website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcasts app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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PowerTALK™ News, September 2021
Download PDFThe September issue of PowerTALK News includes several articles discussing electric vehicles and battery power and production. Get the latest information on these important trends. Also, in this issue, read about:
- DataPoint: Outboard Motors
- Europe: CNH Acquires Sampierana SPA
- South America
- Mercedes Announces EV Bus for Brazil
- Jacto Launches Self-Propelled Planter
- Eletra Converts Trucks, Buses to EV
- China: Volvo To Produce Trucks in China
- Japan: Toyota Invests in Auto Batteries
- South Korea: Hyundai To Convert Trucks and Buses
- Southeast Asia: VinFast To Build Batteries
- India: EV Segment Gains Traction
- Russia
- EV Transport Plan To Cost US$ 8 Billion
- Avotor Left Without BMW Subsidies
- Rostselmash Increases Investment Program
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DATAPOINT: 2021 Outboard Motors
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for global Outboard motor production in North Ameria, Japan, Brazil, China and Thailand. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, senior analyst of global operations, at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 global production of outboard motors. We’ll be looking at motors production in Brazil, China, Japan, Thailand and the United States.
This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, a senior analyst of global operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
00:38
Only 12% of global production of outboards is produced in the US. It’s done primarily by Mercury Marine and Bombardier Recreational Products.
Japan is the leading producer of outboards. Building more than 71% of the units. And Yamaha Marine produces 43.5% of the units built in Japan.
Thailand is expected to produce about 9% of total global production of outboards.
China is 4th at about 7.5%.
01:13
Yamaha builds more outboard motors than anyone. It has 48.5% of the market and is expected to build almost 251,000 units in Japan this year and another 28,600 units in Thailand. In second position is Tohatsu with 15%, and 3rd is Mercury Marine with combined plant totals also of about 15%.
01:35
Outboard motors are generally defined as detachable boating engines mounted on the stern of a boat on outboard motor brackets and are typically either 2 stroke or 4 stroke engines.
The first outboard was produced by Ole Evinrude in 1909.
Outboard motors can be very powerful units with output ranging as high as 425 horsepower.
02:03
In 2021, we estimate that global outboard motor production will reach about 618,800 units. That’s up about 43,000 units, or seven and a half percent, from the 575,800 units produced last year.
In 2019, though, global production was 680,400 units; so, production this year will still be down about 9% from 2 years ago.
02:38
Despite COVID related factors, boat sales soared when stay-at-home consumers began looking for recreation.
However, manufacturing dropped mostly due to BRP canceling production of Evinrude Motors in May of 2020.
Yamaha reported unit sales of 279,000 in 2020; a 10% cut from the 310,000 it did in 2019.
Mercury Marine discontinued a variety of unpopular Marine and Mercury models, especially its two stroke models.
Outboard motor production peaked in 2018 and that was mostly attributed to the demand for new models, along with the soaring economy.
Outboard motors tend to last decades before owners purchased a new model.
In recent years, new motors are more powerful, but lighter in weight and more fuel efficient, and this certainly attracts consumers.
03:41
Boating is an extremely popular recreational activity worldwide; and enthusiasts want a motor that is powerful but also versatile. The growth in recreational boating over the past several years has been driven in large part by advances in outboard motor power.
Expect production of outboard engines to gain up to 15% by 2025.
04:06
This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases: OE Link — which is the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production, forecasts, and specification data.
Look for DataPoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.
Contact us for more information on other off-road products and on-highway vehicles.
04:36
To read a transcript of this podcast, visit the website at powersys.com and click on the podcast archive.
Thank you for joining the PSR PowerTALK podcast. This podcast will be available on demand. Search for “PSR PowerTALK” in your podcast app or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today.
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DataPoint: US Crawlers, 2021 Production: 4,100 Units
Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Crawler production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, senior analyst of global operations, at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.
4,100 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of crawlers to be produced in North America in 2021.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With combined plant totals of 55% Caterpillar leads in production of crawlers in North America. In second position is Deere with 31.5%; third, is Case with 10%.
Exports: Collectively, up to 30% worldwide.
Trends: During 2020, production of Crawlers in North America (US) decreased nearly 18%, but production is expected to rebound 19% in 2021, compared to 2020. Most of the decline in 2020 was due to COVID-19-related factors such as plant shutdowns, parts availability and lack of workforce. The market significantly dropped in the Spring of 2020 due to the combination of low oil prices and a lull in mining and construction projects.
A few years ago, construction spending in the United States was above annual levels, according to a new analysis of federal data released by the Associated General Contractors of America. Construction and mining activities increased resulting in gains for 2018.
Decreases in production are also attributed to divergent trends however, as public sector construction activity has continued to decline while private sector demand for new construction strengthened. Even though sales dropped considerably in 2020, production is expected to gain up to 15% by 2025 primarily influenced by the positive outlook for construction (infrastructure) and mining related activities. PSR
Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations
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PowerTALK™ News, August 2021
Download PDFTaiwan is a one of the world’s leading producers of digital chips for everything from commercial vehicles and autos to Lawn & Garden and other consumer products. Read Erik Martin’s report on Taiwan’s chip production in the August issue of PowerTALK™ News.
Here are more articles in this issue:
- Global:
- 20%+ Growth in Truck Production
- Bitcoin Energy Consumption
- DataPoint: U.S. Crawlers
- Europe: Recovery Stresses Supply Chain
- South America:
- Ford Ends Troller Production
- Toyota Suspends Production
- Komatsu Invests in Para Facility
- Japan: Honda Staff Seek Retirement
- South Korea: Hyundai, LG Chem Build Batteries
- Southeast Asia: COVID Disrupts Supply Network
- India: Scrappage Policy Is Launched
- Russia:
- Ag Equipment Sales Jump
- KAMAZ Builds Parts for Aurus Cars
- Czech Republic Builds Electric SUV
- Global:
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