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  • DataPoint 2021 UTV Production

    Today, PSR PowerTALK Editor Joe Delmont presents the Power Systems Research 2021 North American Utility Vehicle production outlook. We estimate that North American wheel loader production this year will reach 440,100 units; about even with 2020 levels.

    This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst – Global Operations, at Power Systems Research.

    Transcript 

    Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research. 

    00:06 

    From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 utility vehicle production in North America.  

    This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications. 

    00: 34 

    Utility vehicles, sometimes called UTVs or side-by-side machines, can accommodate up to six passengers and are primarily designed for off-road use, although they can be used for industrial activities and as personnel carriers on campuses.  

    00: 54 

    UTVs are gaining in popularity because of their flexibility and power. And are replacing ATV’s in many cases because ATV’s generally are limited to two persons seated, one behind the other and aren’t as flexible as UTVs. 

    01:12 

    In 2021, we estimate that North American UTV production will reach 440,100 units, down about 400 units, or 9%, from the 440,500 units produced last year. 

    01:30 

    About 40% of US production is exported worldwide, up to 85% of Mexico’s UTV production is for North American markets and Canada exports about 90% of its small 1700-unit production. 

    01:48 

    In 2019, North American production was 424,800 units. Production climbed almost 16,000 units, or about 4% in 2020, to that 440,500-unit level we discussed. Despite negative COVID related factors, the pandemic actually fed the demand for utility vehicles from recreational and industrial uses to military applications. 

    02:19 

    This is known as the pandemic paradox, because sales surged during lockdowns. The popularity of outdoor activities has increased, in part because of the pandemic. And people are enjoying off-road riding in the comfort and safety that is provided by UTVs. 

    02:39 

    The growth also comes from stabilization of the overall economy. Demand for products in the golf industry, federal government incentives, and the desire for new equipment with greener technology, especially within the sport and utility sectors. 

    02:56 

    Expect UTV production in North America to increase up to 5% by 2025. The leading UTV manufacturers in North America are Polaris — which has 32% of total North American production with its plants in the US and Mexico, in second position is Deere — with combined plant totals of 11.5, third is Kawasaki with 11%, just edging out Honda by only about 125 units which also has 11%. 

    There are nearly two dozen other manufacturers of UTVs in North America — including Arctic Cat, Clubcar, Kawasaki, Textron, Toro, and Yamaha.  

    03:36 

    This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases, OE Link — the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink — which provides engine production forecasts and specification data.  

    Look for data point reports every month in the PSR PowerTrack news report and on this podcast. 

    Contact us for more information on other off-road products, such as mixers and agricultural equipment. 

    04:22 

    Or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today. 

  • Datapoint: 2021 Grader

    Today, PSR PowerTALK Editor Joe Delmont presents the Power Systems Research 2021 North American Grader production outlook. We estimate that North American grader production this year will reach 2325 units; up about 8% from 2020 levels. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, senior analyst-global operations, at Power Systems Research.

    Transcript 

    Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research. 

    From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today, we’ll discuss a data point covering grader production in North America for 2021.  

    This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.  

    Motor graders are used worldwide to build and maintain roads, highways, airports and other construction projects. 

    00:44 

    In 2021, we estimate that North American grader production will reach 2525 units, up about 185 units, or 8%, from the 2340 units produced last year. About 30% of this production is exported worldwide.  

    In 2019, North American production was 2815 units; but production dropped sharply in 2020, plunging about 17% to only 2340 units. 

    01:24 

    The decline was driven by Tier 4 pre-buying incentives and the lull in activities that used graders that are predominantly road related. 

    01:34 

    Motor graders have a long lifespan and, as a result, demand for new machinery is not always necessary; even though construction related activities focusing on road construction are ongoing.  

    This product segment generally is not directly affected by COVID; however, with less roadway traffic, road construction can be expedited. 

    02:00 

    Expect grader production in North America to increase up to 10% by 2025. The leading grader manufacturers in North America are Deere — which has 59% of the total North American production, followed by Caterpillar — with 37%, and Wheeler — with two percent.  

    This data is pulled from two of the major Power Systems Research databases — OE Link, the database of OEM production and forecast data, and EnginLink, which provides engine production forecast and specification data.  

    Look for DataPoint reports every month in the PSR PowerTALK news report and on this podcast.  

    Contact us for more information on other off-road products, such as mixers and agricultural equipment. 

    02:59 

    Or Google “Power Systems Research” to sign up today. 

  • DATAPOINT: NA Harvesters, 2021 Production, 550 Units

    550 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Harvesters to be produced in North America in 2021. This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share: Dominating the NA market for Harvester production is Deere with 50.5% of total units produced.  In second position with combined plant total of 20% is Oxbo “International; third is Flory with 13%.

    Trends: In 2020, production of Harvesters in NA decreased 17%.  Production is expected to increase 19% in 2021 over 2020.  The Ag industry has fluctuated over the years and demand for new products has declined.  Due to falling commodity prices in recent years, farmers/cultivators can’t afford new equipment and have spent years of refurbishing existing units.

    Uncertainties of COVID-related factors led farmers to avoid spending nominal profits on new machinery. Over the past several years, the dramatic fall in net farm income in 2015 and 2016 seems to be leveling out at a lower level. However, America’s farmers are enduring the impact of a continuation of the current trade war with China. 

    On the flip side, the harvester production increase is attributed to the desire for new machines to increase productivity and to end up with a profitable yield.  Expect production to fluctuate over the next 3-5 years with a slight gain of 5% by 2025.   PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, at Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™ News, June 2021

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    IN THIS ISSUE. Edge Computing is a developing concept that brings data and data processing closer to the application, closer to the edge, if you will. Read about it in the June issue of PowerTALK News.

    Here are more articles in this issue:

    • Edge Computing Brings Data Closer
    • Listen To New PSR PowerTALK Podcasts
    • PSR MHV Database Segment Upgraded
    • North America: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck Happenings in Europe
    • DataPoint: North American Harvesters
    • Europe: Mercedes Grows in EV Bus Market
    • South America
      • Rio Plans 100% EV Buses by 2050
      • Goods Transported in Brazil Climb in 2021
      • Protests Affect Columbia Vehicles Market
    • Taiwan: Next-Generation EV Battery Development Pushed
    • Japan: Komatsu and Honda Jointly Develop EV Excavator
    • South Korea: SK Plans To Develop Hydrogen Base in Ulsan
    • Thailand: GWM Opens Smart Factory in Thailand
    • India: Second Wave COVID Will Have Limited Impact on Ag
    • Russia
      • Rostselmash Starts Building Tractor Plant
      • Aurus Car Powered by Hydrogen Created  in Russia
      • Tonar Shows First Articulated Dump Truck

  • DATAPOINT: NA Skid Steer Loaders, 2021 Production Forecast: 95,100 Units

    95,100 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Skid Steer Loaders to be produced in North America (Canada and the U.S.) in 2021.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share: With 36% of total units produced, Bobcat leads in production of Skid Steer Loaders in North America.  In second and third positions are Case New Holland and Deere with 21% and 15%, respectively.

    Exports: Collectively, up to 25% worldwide

    Trends: In 2020, production of skid steer loaders in North America decreased 18% to 87,400 units from 106,500 units in 2019.  Production is expected to recover about 9% in 2021 to 95,100 units.  The decline in 2020 was caused mostly by COVID-19-related factors plus the new equipment saturation in the market and a slight drop in construction related activities. 

    The gain in 2021 is attributed to the need for new construction equipment and the overall stabilization of the economy, especially regarding the construction industry.   As the construction industry continues to recover, construction will continue to be a key driver in overall industry growth. 

    Some softness in sales comes from the American agriculture industry that is sluggish as it continues to battle low commodity prices. The Agriculture Segment accounts for 29% of all Skid Steer usage in the market today.  Expect production of Skid Steer Loaders in NA to increase up to 7% over the next 3-5 years. PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst-Global Operations, at Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™ News, May 2021

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    IN THIS ISSUE. The May issue of PowerTALKTM News reports that gen-set sales in North America declined in Q1 2021 down 7.4% from Q4 2020 levels, according to the Power Systems Research PowerTrackerTM dealer and distributor survey of 200 respondents. This decrease follows three consecutive quarters in 2020 where dealers reported overall sales increases of 4.5% in Q2 2020 followed by 11.9% in Q3 2020 and 6.3% in Q4 2020.

    Although sales were down 7.4% in Q1 2021, the results were unique in that there was a different story depending on the fuel and power range being considered.

    Here are more items in the May 2021issue of PowerTALK™News:

    • Power Systems Research Offers Truck Data
    • Listen To New PSR PowerTALK Podcasts
    • PSR MHV Database Segment Upgraded
    • North America
      • Expect Component Shortages
      • Powersports Recreation Equipment Update
    • DataPoint: North American Scooters
    • Europe
      • EV Buses Under Pressure
      • Continental Sells To VW
    • South America
      • Muller Launches Off-Highway Truck
      • VWCO Exports Grow 130%
      • GE Announces LCV To Be Built in Brazil
    • Taiwan: Draught Hits Many Areas
    • Japan:
      • Ship Fuel Efficiency Plan Announced
      • Komatsu Shows Fully Electric Excavator
    • South Korea: Doosan Recycles Plastic
    • Vietnam: Vinfast Takes Orders for EVs
    • India: Mahindra To Set Up Farm Equipment Plant
    • Russia
      • Russia Ag Machinery Exports Double
      • GAZ Increases LCV Production

  • DATAPOINT: NA Scooters, 2021 Production, 431,900

    431,900 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Scooters to be produced in North America (Mexico and the U.S.) in 2021.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share: Dominating the NA market for Scooter production is Mexico-based Italika with 89% of total units produced.  In second position is Honda-Mexico with 11%; third is US-based Go-Ped with 178 units.

    Trends: 2020 production of Scooters in NA increased 10.5% over 2019 production despite Covid-19 uncertainties.  It is expected that production will gain an additional 4% from 2020 to 2021. 

    Honda reported record low production in 2020, when it posted the sharpest decline in its 72-year history, declining by more than 5 million sales globally or 24.4%.   Italika rallied after a bleak start to boost total production for the segment.  Italika was founded in 2005 as a new emerging motorcycles manufacturer headquartered in Toluca, Mexico.

    Increased demand for efficient and eco-friendly vehicles–along with the threat of rising gas prices–will boost the electric scooter market.  Not only are scooters convenient and offer independence, but they also make for faster commutes as opposed to using other modes of transportation; electric models are also extremely popular.  Expect production of scooters to increase 15% by 2025.   PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™ News, April 2021

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    The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI ) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from Q4 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

    While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions, according to the April issue of PowerTALK™ News. The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

    Here are more articles in this issue of PowerTALK™ News:

    • Power Systems Research Offers Truck Data
    • Listen To New PSR PowerTALK Podcasts
    • Global Truck Production Drops in Q1 2021 (PSR-TPI)
    • North America
      • Q1 2021 Economic Outlook
      • Powersports EV Update
    • DataPoint: Skid Steer Loaders
    • Europe: MAN Marine Engines Certified
    • South America
      • MWM Launches NG Engines
      • Argentina Forces Full Capacity
      • CE 20% Growth Seen in 2021
    • Japan: OEMs Agree on Battery Specs
    • South Korea: Hyundai Seals Doosan Deal
    • Malaysia: China-Led Proton Revitalized
    • India: Scrappage Policy Announced
    • Russia:
      • KAMAZ Profit Exceeds US$20 Million
      • GAZ Sells Trucks in Australia
      • Uralmash Sets India Deal
      • Rosatom Eyes Battery Production for Cars

  • DATAPOINT: 2021 US ATV Production, 301,000 Units

    301,000 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of ATVs to be produced in Mexico and the U.S. in 2021.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share: With 28% of total units produced, Polaris Industries leads in production four-wheeled ATVs in North America.  In second and third positions are Honda and Yamaha Motor with 22% and 19%, respectively.

    Exports: Up to45% of Mexico’s ATV production is exported worldwide. That compares to about 30% of the US production that is exported.

    Trends: Production of ATVs decreased 18% in 2020 from the 337,700 units produced in 2019.  Even though production is expected to increase in 2021 by about 9% over the 2020 production of 275,700 units, it will still trail 2019 production by more than 36,000 units.

    The decrease in 2020 was caused by COVID-19, excess inventories, uncertain economic conditions and the growing popularity of side x side units (UTVs). Manufacturers have discontinued less popular models and continue to shift production to UTVs.

    The outlook for ATV sales is positive. According to investor relations representatives at Polaris, Yamaha and Arctic Cat, consumer discretionary spending is on the increase and gasoline prices are favorable.

    Production is expected to increase by as much as 10% by 2025, driven by positive economic factors, pent-up demand caused by COVID, and the introduction of innovative products and technologies, including a shift to electric vehicles. PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations at Power Systems Research

  • Q1 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 42.5%

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    St. Paul, MN (April 13, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from the fourth quarter of 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

    The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

    This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

    Global Index. While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions.

    All Regions. Except for China, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase this year and into 2022 as the various economies improve and Coronavirus vaccinations increase.  The market will also experience periodic supply chain disruptions primarily due to the impact from the Coronavirus.

    North America. Since the latter part of last year, heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are currently in record territory primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector.  The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, supply chain issues particularly regarding semiconductors will be the biggest obstacle for sustainable production this year.

    Europe. Last year, medium and heavy commercial truck sales declined by 25.7% in the EU.  Heavy truck sales declined by 27.3% and bus registrations dropped by 21% compared with 2019.  However, order rates have shown significant strength during the past six months and sales are expected to improve significantly this year, primarily for the heavy truck segment.  The biggest impediment to improved sales will likely be issues surrounding the supply chain for vehicle components and materials as a result of the impact from the Coronavirus.

    South Asia. Commercial vehicle demand is expected to improve for much of this region this year.  After a 53% decline in Indian MHCV production last year, an improvement of 35% is expected in 2021.  While this is good news, it will still be a few years before Indian demand reaches more historic levels.  The segment will continue to face headwinds due to excess capacity in the market, driver shortages, increased rail freight usage, relative constant freight rate, and booming fuel prices.  The PLI scheme implemented by the government will provide some push to the Indian market from 2022.

    South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production declined by approximately 25% in 2020 with medium and heavy buses seeing the sharpest decline.  While orders and production improved during the fourth quarter of 2020, concerns about supply chain disruption could hinder production levels this year.  With increased vaccinations and a more stabilized regional economy, PSR expects production to return to pre-pandemic levels later this year.

    Japan/Korea. After a significant decline in medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand last year, Japan and Korean production is expected to rebound this year and into 2022 for both the domestic and export markets.  An improving global economy along with increased Coronavirus vaccines will help drive the improvement in demand.  However, due to ongoing supply chain disruptions production levels are expected to be somewhat volatile this year.

    Greater China. Demand for heavy trucks is expected to be down sharply this year as a result of the Chinese governmental requirement to replace all China III and lower emission vehicles with vehicles meeting China V or China VI emission standards by the end of last year.  This along with stricter punishment of overloaded vehicles and the implementation of the Euro VI emission regulations in July will slow demand particularly in the last half of the year.  The cost of the emission technology for Euro VI vehicles are not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy which will likely lead to some level of truck pre-buy during the first half of this year.   PSR

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