Reports

  • PowerTALK™, March 2022

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    This issue of PowerTALK News contains several articles about the situation in Russia, including news about plant shut downs and operational adjustments by OEMs. Several EV articles, too.

    Inside:

    • Medium and Heavy EV Testing
    • DataPoint: NA Dumpers/Tenders
    • Europe: Middle East Energy Show Resumes
    • South America
      • Brazil Cuts Production Taxes
      • VW Plans EV Charger Program
      • Sao Paulo EV Bus Program
    • China: 90% EV Penetration Expected
    • Japan: Sony, Honda To Develop EV SUV
    • India: Paggio Developing EV Scooter for India
    • Russia:
      • Half of Auto Plants Shut Down
      • KAMAZ Adjusts To Daimler Exit
      • CAT Plans To Stop Russia Production
      • Foreign Automakers Face Ultimatum

  • DATAPOINT: 2022 North America Production Estimate, Harvesters 460 Units

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    460 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of agricultural harvesters to be produced in the U.S. during 2022.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share:  With 48.5% of total units produced, Deere leads in production of Harvesters in the U.S.  In second position is Oxbo International’s combined plant totals of 24%; third, is Flory with 10.5%. 

    Exports: Collectively, up to 1% worldwide.

    Trends: In 2021, production of Harvesters in NA increased 13%.  Production is expected to gain another 3% in 2022.  The Ag industry has fluctuated in recent years and demand for new products declined a few years ago due to falling commodity prices.  Farmers couldn’t afford new equipment and spent years refurbishing existing units.

    Currently, it appears that growers are moving from hand to machine harvesting.  They are increasingly using over-the-row mechanical harvesters to pick produce and like commodities.  Especially during COVID times, this type of machinery reduces the need for manual labor during labor shortages.  The increase in harvester production is also attributed to the desire for new machinery that increases productivity and profitability. 

    Expect production to fluctuate over the next 3-5 years with an increase of 5% by 2025.   PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, at Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™, February 2022

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    Read about new partnerships set up to develop alternative power sources in the February issue of PowerTALK News. Also in this issue is a report on 2021 global truck production, several articles on hydrogen fuel cell development, and a North American economic forecast by Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD.

    Inside:

    • North America:
      • Economic Outlook
      • Commercial EV Update
    • Global: 2021 Truck Production
    • DataPoint: US Harvesters
    • Europe: Hybrid Electric-Hydrogen
    • South America
      • Flying Car Registration Added
      • Scania Tests Euro VI Engine
      • Funding For Low Emissions
    • China: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Plant
    • Japan: Yamaha Adds Electric M/C
    • South Korea: Doosan Bobcat
    • Plans Electric T7X for NA
    • Southeast Asia: PTT-Hon Hai To
    • Produce EVs
    • India: Budget Pushes EVs and
    • Infrastructure
    • Russia:
      • New Engine for Grain Combines
      • UAZ To Supply Hyundai and Kia
      • Joint Car Production Set

  • Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

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    St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

    The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

    This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

    Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

    All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

    North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.

    Europe: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to finish up 17% over 2020.  While the truck segment showed solid improvement over a low production base in 2020, bus demand was still soft in 2021.  In 2022, production is expected to grow by 8% and continue to improve through 2024.  However, continued supply chain disruptions and possible negative impacts from COVID will likely continue through much of 2022.

    South Asia: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in India is expected to finish 2021 at about 287,000 vehicles, an increase of 70% over 2020. Slight demand growth in India is expected in 2022 and 2023 before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year. In India, the focus is moving toward more infrastructure spending which is good for the vocational market. However, increasing use of rail freight, worker shortages and increasing commodity prices will slow truck demand during the next few years.

    South America: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 55.6% in 2021 over 2020, and production is expected to further increase by 10.4% in 2022 over 2021.  Continued supply chain disruptions along with uncertainty regarding the Omicron COVID variant will likely impact the market throughout the year.

    Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 16.7% in 2021 over 2020.  In 2022, production levels for the region are expected to grow by 4.7% over 2021.  Automotive production in Japan is starting to see improvement with strong gains over October and November.  While this is good news, the supply chain issues have yet to be resolved and the Omicron COVID variant will likely pose challenges throughout the year.  Component costs are expected to rise this year because of supplier’s air freighting parts that they are unable to ship by sea.

    Greater China: The medium and heavy commercial vehicle market declined by approximately 20% in 2021 over 2020 partially due to a truck pre-buy ahead of the China VI emission standard implementation in July 2021.  The cost of the emission technology for China VI vehicles are not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy.  In 2022, the market will still be unstable as the covid virus continues to impact the economy.  Demand is expected to decline slightly through 2023 before a slow recovery in 2024.  

    The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2022 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q1 2022.  PSR

    Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

  • North American Rollers 2021 Production: 6,245 Units

    DATAPOINT

    6,245 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of rollers to be produced in North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico)  during 2021.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share:  With 48.5% of total units produced, U.S. based Wacker Neuson leads in production of Rollers in North America.  In second position is Caterpillar’s combined plant totals of 21%; third, is Volvo Construction with 15.5%. 

    Export: Collectively, up to 50% worldwide.

    Trends: In 2020, production of Rollers in North America dropped 31.5%, but production is expected to rebound 16% in 2021 over 2020.  The decline in 2020 is solely based on COVID-19 related factors that impacted the global supply chain.  There are material shortages (parts/supplies), shipping issues (moving goods is slow paced), material prices increased and workforce matters (due to company shutdowns or can’t find workers).

    With supply chain problems gradually being resolved, the 2021 increase is also attributed to the launching and demand for new, more versatile products, along with the stabilization of the overall economy, mostly regarding the housing/construction markets.  The demand for rental machinery is also on the rise.  

    Many new models are boasting increased fuel efficiency that are desirable to operate.  Tandem drum vibratory rollers account for nearly half of all compactors produced and sold each year that range from 5-8 metric tons.  Expect the production of rollers in NA to increase an additional 10% by 2025.   PSR

    Carol Turner, is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™ News, January 2022

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    The overall global economic recovery looks strong, and the outlook for the global MHV segment is expected to improve in 2022 and 2023, according to forecasts by Power Systems Research analysts. Read the latest global economic news and analysis in the January issue of PowerTALK News. The January issue also includes:

    • DataPoint: North America Rollers
    • Europe: Kohler Introduces Small Block Diesel
    • South America:
      • Bad Weather Hurts Brazil Ag Machinery
      • Trailer Production Grows 33%
      • Brazil Segments See 4% Growth in 2022
    • China: Construction Machinery Electrifies
    • Japan: Look for Electric Car Growth
    • South Korea: LG Chem To Build Battery Plant
    • Southeast Asia: Japan Could Miss EV Growth
    • India: Semiconductor Incentive Plan Okayed
    • Russia:
      • KAMAZ Launches 720 hp Engine
      • Autotor To Produce EVs in 2023
      • Ural To Begin Axle Production
      • Ford Auto Plant Sold

  • DATAPOINT: North American Golf Cars 2021 Production: 56,200 Units

    56,200 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of golf cars to be produced in North America  during 2021. In this report, we consider North America to be the United States.

    This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

    Market Share:  With 42% of total units produced, Yamaha Motor leads in production of gas-powered Golf Cars in the United States.  In second position is Textron (EZGO) with 32%; third, is Club car with 26%.

    Worldwide Distribution: Collectively, up to 20% worldwide.

    Trends: In 2020, US production of Golf Cars dropped 18%.  Production is expected to decrease another 2% from in 2021.  The decline in engine powered units is due to the increase in electric models that are currently the most popular power option. 

    COVID-19 production drop is mostly due to supply chain disruptions such as lack of part(s) availability.  During COVID times, electric golf car production dramatically increased (some electric manufacturers reporting up to a 200% increase in production).

    The pandemic accelerated the demand for golf cars, not for golf course needs, but as a “lifestyle” vehicle.  New models are being worked on with different fuels to make them less expensive and cleaner to run.  Gas models are more powerful and are preferred on hilly terrains. 

    Production should remain flat over the next couple of years with an increase in gas powered units that are eco-friendlier. Further recovery in the US economy and a growing number of golfers will support demand.  Expect production of gas-powered units to increase 5-10% by 2025. Electric -powered units could increase by 100%.   PSR

    Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

  • PowerTALK™ News, December 2021

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    Q3 2021 NA Gen-Set Sales Climb 4.3%

    The Q3 2021 PowerTracker Report in this issue of PowerTALK News survey of dealers and distributors reports that overall gen-set sales in North America increased in Q3 2021 4.3% from Q2 2021 levels.  This builds on a sales increase of 6.8% in Q2 2021 and a slower start to the year of -7.4% in Q1 2021 as sales were constrained by availability and supply issues. 

    Also, in this issue, you’ll find

    • DataPoint: North America Golf Cars
    • South America
      • JCB To Expand Production Capacity in Brazil
      • VWCO To Invest US$ 400 million in Brazil
      • Cummins Expands Alternative Power Portfolio in Brazil  
    • Taiwan: TSMC in Early Talks Regarding Germany Plant
    • Japan: Toyota Joins BYD To Build Affordable $30,000 Electric Car
    • Southeast Asia: Indonesia Aims at Lead in Integrated EV Production
    • India: MG Motors Plans To Make India An Export Hub
    • Russia:
      • UAZ Patriot SUV Collects US$ 3.8 Million in Pre-orders in USA
      • GAZ Group May Start Mass Production of Hydrogen Engines in 2.5 Years
      • New Cars in Russia Cost More Than in USA and Europe

  • DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Golf Car Production

    Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Combine production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.

  • PowerTALK™ News, November 2021

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    Akihiro Komuro, PSR’s analyst in Japan, reports on the expansion of VinFast EV subsidiary of the Vietnamese conglomerate VinGroup that is expanding to the US. VinFast has announced plans for a US headquarters and manufacturing plant in California. Other stories in this issue of PowerTALK include:

    • Global Economic Forecast: On Path To Recovery
    • DataPoint: North America AG Tractors
    • Europe: BMW Starts Production of EV Motorcycle
    • South America
      • Stellantis Confirms Second LCV
      • Higer Bus To Produce EV Buses in Brazil
      • Concessions for Proconve L7 Seen
      • Argentine Auto Sales Decline
    • China: Weichai Produces 150-Ton Mining Truck
    • Japan: NEDO Begins R&D on Hydrogen Aircraft
    • South Korea: Hyundai Launches Wage Half Price Plant
    • Vietnam: VinFast Launches EVs, Plans US HQ and Production Plant
    • India: Chip Shortage Batters Auto Industry
    • Russia
      • AutoVAZ Halts Production
      • Assembly of Russian Railway Kits Starts in India
      • Russian Mega-Project in Doubt
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