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NA Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing
Chris Fisher Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
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North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace
Yosyf Sheremeta SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
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Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%
Jim Downey Chris Fisher ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database…
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PowerTALK™, February 2022
Download PDFRead about new partnerships set up to develop alternative power sources in the February issue of PowerTALK News. Also in this issue is a report on 2021 global truck production, several articles on hydrogen fuel cell development, and a North American economic forecast by Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD.
Inside:
- North America:
- Economic Outlook
- Commercial EV Update
- Global: 2021 Truck Production
- DataPoint: US Harvesters
- Europe: Hybrid Electric-Hydrogen
- South America
- Flying Car Registration Added
- Scania Tests Euro VI Engine
- Funding For Low Emissions
- China: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Plant
- Japan: Yamaha Adds Electric M/C
- South Korea: Doosan Bobcat
- Plans Electric T7X for NA
- Southeast Asia: PTT-Hon Hai To
- Produce EVs
- India: Budget Pushes EVs and
- Infrastructure
- Russia:
- New Engine for Grain Combines
- UAZ To Supply Hyundai and Kia
- Joint Car Production Set
- North America:
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Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%
Download PDF
St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.
Europe: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to finish up 17% over 2020. While the truck segment showed solid improvement over a low production base in 2020, bus demand was still soft in 2021. In 2022, production is expected to grow by 8% and continue to improve through 2024. However, continued supply chain disruptions and possible negative impacts from COVID will likely continue through much of 2022.
South Asia: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in India is expected to finish 2021 at about 287,000 vehicles, an increase of 70% over 2020. Slight demand growth in India is expected in 2022 and 2023 before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year. In India, the focus is moving toward more infrastructure spending which is good for the vocational market. However, increasing use of rail freight, worker shortages and increasing commodity prices will slow truck demand during the next few years.
South America: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 55.6% in 2021 over 2020, and production is expected to further increase by 10.4% in 2022 over 2021. Continued supply chain disruptions along with uncertainty regarding the Omicron COVID variant will likely impact the market throughout the year.
Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 16.7% in 2021 over 2020. In 2022, production levels for the region are expected to grow by 4.7% over 2021. Automotive production in Japan is starting to see improvement with strong gains over October and November. While this is good news, the supply chain issues have yet to be resolved and the Omicron COVID variant will likely pose challenges throughout the year. Component costs are expected to rise this year because of supplier’s air freighting parts that they are unable to ship by sea.
Greater China: The medium and heavy commercial vehicle market declined by approximately 20% in 2021 over 2020 partially due to a truck pre-buy ahead of the China VI emission standard implementation in July 2021. The cost of the emission technology for China VI vehicles are not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy. In 2022, the market will still be unstable as the covid virus continues to impact the economy. Demand is expected to decline slightly through 2023 before a slow recovery in 2024.
The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2022 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q1 2022. PSR
Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.
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KAMAZ Launches 720 hp Engine
RUSSIA REPORT
PowerTALK, January 2022
Maxim Sakov KAMAZ said it is installing new 6-cylinder engines working on methane gas and having 720 HP on its trucks. Switching to NG fuel is one of the main trends of the Russian automotive giant. It builds Inline 6 and V8 engines
Inline 6 cylinders engine will be made in several versions but the 720 hp will be available in the top model only. For the economy segment, the OEM will offer a 450 hp engine; the price of this model will be significantly cheaper.…
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Autotor To Produce Two Models of Electric Cars in 2023
RUSSIA REPORT
Autotor said it plans to start mass production of electric cars next year. One of the new models will be a city car for young drivers, and second one will be a car for people with limited liabilities.
The OEM already has developed a concept vehicle with the designers from Europe, and there are plans to assemble a test lot of several thousand electric vehicles in 2023. Three possible OEMs are considered as partners in the venture: Kia, Hyundai and BMW.
PSR Analysis:…
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Ural To Produce Axles for Heavy Trucks
RUSSIA REPORT
The Fund of Industrial Development has approved a loan of US$ 27 million (2 Bln rubles) under the “Priority Projects” program, which will allow Ural to build axles at a new production facility. The new site will allow OEM to double production of heavy load trucks and to create about 4,000 jobs.
Currently, these axles are being purchased in China. Ural is going to make this product for its own use, and for sale to other truck makers. Production under the program is expected to begin in 2023.
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Ford Automotive Plant Sold To Korean Sungwoo Hitech
RUSSIA REPORT
The South Korean company Sungwoo Hitech, a manufacturer of auto components that is part of the Hyundai group, has purchased an abandoned Ford plant in Vsevolzhsk.
Details of the deal have not disclosed. However, the plant, which is partly stripped and which has been idle for two years, is being sold for US$ 20 million, a total considered to be far below market value.
For now, the new owner said it is not planning to resume car production there, but the company said it is going to rehab the plant and start production in 2023. Sungwoo Hitech said at this time it plans to invest about US$ 70 million and employ 520 people. Production capacity will be about 265,000 units per year.
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Cabinet Okays Rs 76,000-cr Semiconductor Plan
INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar The India Cabinet has cleared a Rs 76,000-cr incentive plan for semiconductors that will set up more than 20 semiconductor design, components manufacturing and display fabrication units over the next six years.
A specialized and independent “India Semiconductor Mission (ISM)” was launched Dec. 29, 2021, to drive the long-term strategies for developing a sustainable semiconductor and display ecosystem in India. The ISM will act as the nodal agency for efficient and smooth implementation of the schemes on semiconductors and display ecosystem.
Read The Article
On December 15, 2021, India’s Union Cabinet approved the Program for Development of Semiconductors and Display Manufacturing Ecosystem in India, with an outlay of US$10 billion (INR 760 billion) for the development of a sustainable semiconductor and display manufacturing ecosystem in India.
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