Look for Unprecedented Launch of EVs in Japanese Market

News: Industry Segments

2022-01-22

Look for Unprecedented Launch of EVs in Japanese Market

JAPAN REPORT

The Japanese market in 2022 will be greatly affected by two factors: COVID-19 in its third year and the semiconductor shortage. Despite this, companies are making steady progress in their approach to the industrial issues of the environment and safety, and in particular, the full-scale development of EV products is positioned as a major step toward the realization of carbon neutrality by 2050. The launch of EVs in the Japanese market in 2022 will be on an unprecedented scale.

Nissan will start selling its new model “ARIA” at the beginning of the year. Nissan and Mitsubishi are also jointly developing a mini-EV which they plan to launch early in 2022. Toyota and Subaru will also gradually roll out their first jointly developed SUV in Japan and overseas markets starting in mid-2022. Toyota’s “bZ4X” and Subaru’s “SOLTERRA” are the best-selling mid-size SUV EVs globally and will be the touchstone for future EV development. Honda will launch its first two Honda-brand EVs in China in the spring of 2022. These are also SUVs and will be marketed under the name “e:NS1” by Dongfeng Honda and “e:NP1” by Guangqi Honda, both of which are local joint ventures, and will be considered for export from China to global markets.

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Bad Weather in Brazil Jeopardizes Ag Machines Market

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT  
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

During the last week of 2021 and the first week of 2022, grain crops faced unfavorable weather conditions. At Mato Grosso and Paraná Regions the lack of rain has been the big problem, while in states like Tocantins and Bahia the problem is an excess of rain, influenced by the climatic phenomenon called La Niña. In some states , such as Paraná, the harvest forecasts are 40% lower than the initial forecast and the losses are estimated at US$ 5 Billion in Paraná.

Source: Valor Economico          Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The loss in Agribusiness affects farm cash flow directly and farmer’s ability to invest in Ag Equipment. Moreover, the mood of farmers could be negatively impacted in a year with new waves of COVID 19 and with political instability due to elections. Ag equipment forecasting in 2022 may be challenging and sales results may surprise OEMs, many who expect double digit growth. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research

2021 Trailer Industry Grows 33% at 163,000 Units

The Brazil trailer industry registered 163,000 new license plates in 2021 vs. 122,000 in 2020, growing 33.5%. The result could have been even better since the segment was affected by a lack of components, such as steel, tires, etc. Export sales climbed to 4,600 units vs. 2,100 units in 2021.

Source: M&T / Anfir     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The growth is in line with truck sales that confirm the health of the transportation industry. The growth of exports confirms the recovery of key markets of Trailers and MHV.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Brazil Off-Highway, Industrial Segments Expect 4% Growth in 2022

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT

According to Abimaq, the total machine segment, that includes Construction Equipment, Agricultural Equipment, Power Gen-Sets, Industrial Equipment and others, grew 20% in 2021 and should grow more than 4% in 2022. When breaking down by subsegment, ABIMAQ see the segments impacted by infrastructure growing around 15% and the segments impacted by Agriculture growing pushed by the harvest growth.

Source: M&T / Abimaq     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The just released projections are in line with the fourth quarter projections we did for 2022. Our Agricultural Equipment forecast is more conservative than that released by ABIMAQ due to risk factors we see impacting this segment. Indeed, we are already seeing negative news at the harvest due to weather conditions as we are reporting in this PowerTALK Edition.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research

Kohler Engines Introduces Small Diesel

EUROPE REPORT
PowerTALK, January 2022

Kohler Engines has introduced a new series of small diesel engines: the KSD.  At launch three models will be available:

  • KSD 1403NA (Naturally aspirated)
  • KSD 1403TC (Turbocharged)
  • KSD 1403TCA (Turbocharged with aftercooler)

Later on, more variants will be released, completing further the series.  Developed as a new electronic engine, this platform is capable of meeting all current emissions legislations, globally.  All engines sit in the critical below 19 kW power node, and with 1.4L is a compact solution that can fit different applications.

One key aspect of the engine is the specific blend between indirect injection and electronic control.  According to Kohler, this enables maximum engine performance, response and very low-end torque. 

Read The Article

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North American Rollers 2021 Production: 6,245 Units

DATAPOINT

6,245 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of rollers to be produced in North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico)  during 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share:  With 48.5% of total units produced, U.S. based Wacker Neuson leads in production of Rollers in North America.  In second position is Caterpillar’s combined plant totals of 21%; third, is Volvo Construction with 15.5%. 

Export: Collectively, up to 50% worldwide.

Trends: In 2020, production of Rollers in North America dropped 31.5%, but production is expected to rebound 16% in 2021 over 2020.  The decline in 2020 is solely based on COVID-19 related factors that impacted the global supply chain.  There are material shortages (parts/supplies), shipping issues (moving goods is slow paced), material prices increased and workforce matters (due to company shutdowns or can’t find workers).

With supply chain problems gradually being resolved, the 2021 increase is also attributed to the launching and demand for new, more versatile products, along with the stabilization of the overall economy, mostly regarding the housing/construction markets.  The demand for rental machinery is also on the rise.  

Many new models are boasting increased fuel efficiency that are desirable to operate.  Tandem drum vibratory rollers account for nearly half of all compactors produced and sold each year that range from 5-8 metric tons.  Expect the production of rollers in NA to increase an additional 10% by 2025.   PSR

Carol Turner, is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.

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Global: Recovery Is Strong, but Uneven

GLOBAL REPORT
Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  The global economy performed very well in 2021 and continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with regions/countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which means that some sectors, jobs, and technologies will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. Based on the most recent economic developments and trends, Power Systems Research remains somewhat optimistic about the global recovery.

Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out.  The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future.  As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.

Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences.  Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind.  Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.  

Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago.  The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022.  Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular. 

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2021-12-19

Indonesia Aims at Lead in Integrated EV Production

INDONESIA REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Investment related to EVs is gaining momentum in Indonesia. While the government is aiming to upgrade the industry by mainly using nickel as a battery material, Hyundai Motor of South Korea and Hon Hai Precision Industry of Taiwan have announced their plans to produce EVs and automotive batteries. If the concentration of industries advances, the country will compete with Thailand, which is also making efforts to attract related industries, for the leading role in EV production in Southeast Asia.

At the Indonesia International Auto Show, which started in the suburbs of Jakarta on Dec 11, Hyundai Motor’s compact EV “Kona” attracted much attention. The company will begin production in 2022 at its plant in West Java province, which will soon be operational.

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Toyota Joins BYD To Build Affordable $30,000 Electric Car

JAPAN REPORT

Toyota reportedly has partnered with China’s BYD to develop an affordable electric car to launch next year. The Japanese automaker has widely been recognized as a laggard in the transition to electric vehicles. Years of betting on hydrogen fuel cells and hybrid vehicles has put Toyota behind on battery-electric vehicles.

Reuters reports Toyota is planning to release a “small and affordable electric sedan” in China next year:

The electric vehicle is reportedly going to be powered by BYD’s blade battery cells with LFP chemistry. LFP chemistry has improved enough in recent years that it is moving from mainly being used in electric buses to now electric cars. BYD’s blade battery has attracted a lot of attention – even from Tesla, according to reports coming out of China. A Toyota source talking to Reuters said that it is what is enabling the automaker to produce its first affordable all-electric car:

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