Bus Sector Bounces Back: EVs Fuel Post-Covid Growth

Aditya Kondejkar

OEMs increasing their focus on the Bus sector to drive growth in the post-Covid period.

Ashok Leyland. One of India’s leading commercial vehicle manufacturers, Ashok Leyland has announced plans to invest ₹1,000 crore in setting up an integrated commercial vehicle (CV) and electric bus (e-bus) manufacturing plant in Uttar Pradesh. This plant is expected to have a planned production capacity of 2,500 buses annually, with the potential for expansion to 5,000 buses per year.

This significant investment is a strategic move for the company and carries several implications and opportunities. This critical analysis examines the key aspects of this investment decision.

“Contingent on market adoption and demand of alternative fuel vehicles in the state, Ashok Leyland intends to invest up to ₹1,000 crore in this new facility over the next few years,” says Shenu Agarwal, Ashok Leyland MD & CEO.

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell MH Commercial Vehicle Update

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

With regards to zero-emission medium and heavy vehicles, we have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks.  At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.  However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment.  Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks due to a lack of a power infrastructure.

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Companies Support Government Fleet Renewal Program

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Gerdau, Vamos and Volkswagen Caminhões have formed a partnership to support the national fleet renewal program, aimed at removing from roads vehicles more than 20 years old.

The fleet renewal program provides for the purchase of low emission and more efficient vehicles by self-employed drivers and other operations. Under the plan, 140 acquired vehicles were sent to Gerdau’s headquarters in Araçariguama, which is responsible for their destruction and recycling.

At the same time, an extension for the incentives program of up to 1 Billion Reais, (US$ 200 M) was announced.

Source: G1      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The total of resources and mechanisms to allow the access to the resources still are not sufficient for the program to impact the market significantly. However, the small inroads demonstrate the desire of Government and private entities to make changes and should impact the market going forward. More deployments and adjustments in the program should come in the medium term. We will keep monitoring and adjusting our short-medium term forecast as it progresses.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

Mexico Beats Argentina for Brazilian Vehicle Exports

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Mexico became the main trading partner of the Brazilian automotive sector in July, beating Argentina in 2023 YTD results. Brazil exports volume to Mexico are favorable because of a 33% growth in the Mexican domestic market. Brazil expanded its exports to the country by 142%, according to Anfavea.

Even with the help of increasing exports to Mexico, Brazilian exports had a significant reduction to 30,300 units, 27.6% below the same period in 2022, which totaled 41,900 units.

The Chilean market has shrunk by 30% this year, from 261,000 to 182,000 units compared to the first seven months of 2022. Purchases of vehicles made in Brazil decreased 61% in the period, from 41,000 to 16,000 units.

In Colombia, the domestic market fell by 60%, from 263,000 to 104,000 units, from January to July compared to the same period last year, and the presence of Brazilian vehicles fell 42%, from 47,000 to 27,000 units.

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29% of 2023 Trucks Fit with Euro 6 Engines

Data released by Anfavea about July Sales and Production show only 29% of the trucks sold in 2023, and produced during the year, met the PROCONVE P8 / Euro VI emissions regulation.

From January to July 2023, 53,900 trucks were produced, 36.2% below the 84,500 units produced in same period last year. This amount is also lower than that produced in the same period in 2021, when 89,500 trucks were produced on the Brazilian OEM assembly lines.

Truck production is still at a slow pace as the market continues to generate low demand for the new PROCONVE P8 technology.

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BYD Expands Production in Brazil

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT 
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

BYD announced the installation of an industrial complex in Camaçari, Bahia. The largest manufacturer of electric vehicles in the world, the Asian giant will invest, in five years, about US$ 600 Million (R $ 3 Billion) in the installation of three factories at the Bahia complex, generating about 5,000 direct and indirect jobs. In addition to passenger vehicles, electric bus and truck chassis will be made on site, as well as a battery split.

The company will take over Ford’s facilities. The deal, however, has not yet been officially announced. The Camaçari pole is the last factory that still belonged to the North American brand in Brazil. The automaker, which announced the end of its local production in 2021, has already sold its facilities in Taubaté (SP) and São Bernardo do Campo (SP).

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First VW Truck Produced in Argentina

The first Volkswagen truck has just left the new exclusive area for the assembly of commercial vehicles of the Industrial Center of Córdoba, Argentina. The vehicle, a VW Delivery 11,180, will be used in the validation of the manufacturing process and for the training of employees. Then it will be part of the fleet that will run tests around the country. The agreement announced by Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus and Volkswagen Argentina in December 2022 provides for the manufacture of five models of the brand in that country from 2024.

The new assembly line in Córdoba occupies an area of 15,000 square meters to produce the VW Delivery 9,170 and 11,180 trucks, the VW Constellation 17,280 in chassis-cab and horsepower versions, as well as the Volksbus 15.190 OD bus chassis.

Source: Press Release   Read The Article

PSR Analysis. This production is an important milestone for VW’s plan to produce in scale in 2024 and forward. Forecasts of introduction and production/sales ramp ups are available in PSR’s OE Link/OE Link Sales databases. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Alternative Propulsion MHVs Down 55% YTD in Brazil

Unlike what happened with automobiles, in which new propulsion technologies registered an increase of almost 60% in the first half of 2023, heavy vehicles powered by electricity or gas dropped 55.5% in this period.

From the 604 units licensed in H1 2022, the volume fell to 269 from January to June this year. The survey was released by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea).

Source: Automotive Business    Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Although OEMs say the drop is in line with the overall market reduction, the ICE market does not account for the significant decrease in sales. Sales from January to June 2023 are only 1% below 2022 in the same period. The small volumes and the size of orders can explain the oscillation with orders postponed from Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 with expectations for incentives and better credit in the second half of 2023.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Scania Launches HV Truck with 900km Range

The X-gas line, presented by Scania in June 26, in Piracicaba (SP) will have versions with powers of 280, 340 and 410 horsepower, and has a range of 900 kilometers, 400 km more than Scania’s debut version in the gas segment.

The longer range was made possible by increasing the number of cylinders that store fuel in the chassis of the vehicles. There are 16 tanks, eight on each side, with a capacity ranging between 118 and 95 liters. In the gas truck previously launched by Scania, there were eight tanks in total.

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DATAPOINT: NA Off-Highway Trucks 2023 Production

1,600 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway Trucks expected to be produced in the United States and Canada in 2023. None of these trucks are electric units.

Unlike On-Road Trucks, Off-Highway Trucks are specifically designed to work in punishing environments and are made to haul material and debris around a work site. These purpose-built vehicles are not constrained by the weight limits of their smaller on-road counterparts.

Expect production to increase 5% by 2025 as the need for new equipment for mining operations increases.  It is speculated that there will be growth in the excavation of iron ore, nickel and bauxite followed by gold and copper.  PSR

Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, at Power Systems Research