We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.
Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment. Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.
The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology. Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway. It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.
The program called Low Carbon FINAME is dedicated to the acquisition of new machines that contribute to carbon emission reduction, with a focus on EV Buses, EV Trucks and Off-Highway Machines electric and Hybrid. OEMs have to register their products before December 2024 to access lower interest rates.
PSR Analysis: The incentives for funding are an important driver to make an EV competitive when compared to an ICE in Brazil, a country with high interest rates and high cost of capital. Historically, lower interest rates caused high sales and bubbles in key segments as CE and MHV. We are closely monitoring the funding conditions and the impact it will bring to key market segments. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems
The 13 liters with Scania Twin SCR aftertreatment developed in Sweden is tested in Brazil for the new Proconve P8 products, already in place for new models and mandatory for all models by January 2023. The homologation process at IBAMA is already advanced but may show adaption needs to Brazilian environment. This engine is part of a completely new powertrain and brakes system with higher efficiency and lower emission. The power range vary from 420 to 560 hp and it is prepared for HVO use.
PSR Analysis: The use of edge technology at Scania Trucks in Brazil is in line with the amount of exports Scania makes to Europe and to lower emission regions. The higher efficiency will bring increased sales to South America as fleet owners seek lower fuel consumption. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
Eve Urban Air Mobility, the branch of aircraft giant Embraer, says it has started the process to register its eVTOL, Electric Vertical Take Off and Landing, vehicle at ANAC, the Brazilian bureau for aircraft certification and tied to international bureaus. Getting this documentation is the most important step for starting its commercial operation programmed for 2026. With this certification Eve will meet international standards of air navigation and safety.
PSR Analysis: Although the aircraft business is not exactly at the scope of products we currently cover, this launch will impact the mobility industry and we are monitoring it closely. Eve has already set 17 partnerships and has a booking of 1700 units, more than many EV makers making a lot of noise in the industry and media. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.? A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.
China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022. PSR
Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
KAMAZ said it is installing new 6-cylinder engines working on methane gas and having 720 HP on its trucks. Switching to NG fuel is one of the main trends of the Russian automotive giant. It builds Inline 6 and V8 engines
Inline 6 cylinders engine will be made in several versions but the 720 hp will be available in the top model only. For the economy segment, the OEM will offer a 450 hp engine; the price of this model will be significantly cheaper. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: A few years ago, KAMAZ started developing new 6-cylinder inline engines in co-operation with Liebherr. The R&D now is program successfully expanding into a new stage, developing a new range of HHP NG-powered engines. PSR
Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations, for Power Systems Research
The Fund of Industrial Development has approved a loan of US$ 27 million (2 Bln rubles) under the “Priority Projects” program, which will allow Ural to build axles at a new production facility. The new site will allow OEM to double production of heavy load trucks and to create about 4,000 jobs.
Currently, these axles are being purchased in China. Ural is going to make this product for its own use, and for sale to other truck makers. Production under the program is expected to begin in 2023.
The Brazil trailer industry registered 163,000 new license plates in 2021 vs. 122,000 in 2020, growing 33.5%. The result could have been even better since the segment was affected by a lack of components, such as steel, tires, etc. Export sales climbed to 4,600 units vs. 2,100 units in 2021.
PSR Analysis: The growth is in line with truck sales that confirm the health of the transportation industry. The growth of exports confirms the recovery of key markets of Trailers and MHV.
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South AmericaforPowerSystems Research
Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
Performance cookies are used to adjust the rate of analytic and advertisement tracking (if enabled) to avoid slowing our site down during high traffic times.
Cookies used to track your Internet use and tailor advertisements to your interests and provide the ability to share and like pages on our site with your friends on social media.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
