News

2024-07-15

EV Sales Headed for Long-Term Growth

ALTERNATIVE POWER REPORT

The short-term picture for EV growth is mixed, but long-term prospects look good. EV sales will continue to grow despite the mixed near-term outlook, according to BloombergNEF’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) which indicates that rapidly falling battery prices, advancements in next-gen battery technology, and improving relative economics of EVs with ICE counterparts continue to underpin long-term EV growth globally.

Global passenger EV sales are expected to continue to grow, but at a slower pace in the next few years.

Source: Electrek: Read The Article

PSR Analysis: We have seen articles incorrectly claiming that the EV market is in decline, so it’s a welcome article that lays out clearly why the market is expected to slow but not decline while ICE engines peaked in 2017 and have started a long term decline. PSR

Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research

2024 MHCV Production Expected To Decline by 1.6%

GLOBAL REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

In 2024, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan and Korea is expected to improve over last year.   

Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.6% this year over 2023.  Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand is centered around slowing global economic conditions that will likely impact overall freight demand. 

North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 4.3% this year over 2023 after strong class 8 truck production last year was driven by on-going pent-up demand.  While class 8 demand is expected to decline this year, it will still be at a relatively high level, especially during the first part of the year. 

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2024 Global Motorcycle Market Estimated at $144 Billion

Michael Aistrup

The global motorcycles market size is estimated to be valued at $144.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1% from 2024 to 2033 and to be valued at $288.46 billion in 2033, according to research by Power Systems Research (PSR).

The unit sales of Motorcycles market are expected to reach 61.62 million by 2029 according to PSR. In the United States, the trend in the motorcycle market is shifting towards electric bikes, as consumers become more environmentally conscious.

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Electric and Hybrid Marine Exhibition Demonstrates New Technologies

EUROPE REPORT 
Natasa Mulahalilovic
Natasa Mulahalilovic

Amsterdam–The Tenth Annual Electric and Hybrid Marine Exhibition in Amsterdam’s RAI June 18-20 attracted more than 200 exhibitors and provided an opportunity for shipowners and operators to review the latest solutions to speed marine electrification, decarbonization, hybridization.

Reaching the objective to reduce greenhouse gas by 70% in maritime industry by 2050 looks realistic but the new technologies developers, equipment manufacturers and end users need more clarity and support from the regulatory and governmental bodies to accelerate the process. Creation of reliable and safe storage and fueling infrastructure will ensure the shipbuilders and ship owners trust the transition.

The three-day event presented the latest innovations and achievements in efficient decarbonization of the maritime industry. New technologies from companies in Europe, North America, China and other regions designed to support and accelerate the transition from high polluting fossil combustion to zero emission solutions in maritime industry were exhibited at the event. The exhibition was visited by thousands of industry professionals.

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Belgium May Lose Audi Car Production in Brussels

EUROPE REPORT 

Audi said it intends to “restructure” its Forest production site in Brussels, a move that clearly could end with the site closing by 2027. Production of the model Q8 e-tron, the only model produced in Forest, will end sooner than was expected. Audi Brussels manufactured about 53,000 cars in 2023, but the sale of the large Q8 car with a high price tag (the catalog price starts at 86,000 EUR) does not meet market demand in Europe.

The possible closure could put more than 1500 employees out of work. The full production of the electric SUV Q8 e-tron will be relocated to Mexico and China where production costs will be lower than in Europe.

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Frasle Mobility To Buy Mexican Kuo’s Dacomsa for $389 Million

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Brazilian auto parts producer Frasle Mobility said (July 8, 2024) it has agreed to buy Mexican auto spare parts distributor Dacomsa from Mexico’s Grupo Kuo S.A.B de C.V. for 2.1 billion reais ($389.5 million).

With the deal, Frasle Mobility, formerly known as Fras-le, said it would also acquire the Dacomsa-owned Kuo Motor and Fritec firms, as well as some tangible and intangibles assets related to those companies, according to a securities filing.

Frasle Mobility also expects to earn some 300 million reais with synergies to be generated from the deal – as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) – in a five-year period, a presentation by the firm showed.

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Brazil Truck Production Grows Significantly

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT 

Brazil truck production reached almost 64,40 units in the first half of this year, an increase of 36.5% over the same period in 2023

In June, 12,200 trucks were manufactured, a 74.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Heavy truck sales also grew. In the first six months of this year, 56,800 trucks were sold, an increase of 8%. Last month, 10,000 trucks were sold, a 26.6% increase compared to June 2023.

Source: Automotive Business    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The production growth was expected due to the pre-production effect with P8 introduction in 2023. The good news is the 26% sales increase in June compared to the same period in 2023, which reinforces the confidence in the Truck Market in the region. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Hitachi Demonstrates Ultra-Large Electric Dump Truck

JAPAN REPORT

By Akihiro Komuro, Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hitachi Construction Machinery said it is demonstrating a rechargeable all-electric dump truck at a mine in Zambia. It’s the world’s first demonstration of an ultra-large machine with a payload capacity of 200 tons.

Operating conditions and battery life will be verified over a one-year period. The original plan was to have the system in operation by the end of 2024, but the company now plans to launch it in 2025 or later.

The overhead wires will be installed along the mine’s route and the battery will be recharged as it travels along the route. This system allows for more efficient operation than recharging at stops. The batteries mounted on the vehicle body will also be lighter, increasing the payload capacity of the dump truck.

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LG, Hyundai Open Indonesia EV Battery Plant

SOUTH KOREA REPORT

South Korean battery giants LG Energy Solutions and Hyundai Motor have opened their first battery plant in Indonesia. The plant will produce batteries for electric vehicles to be sold locally and in neighboring countries. Indonesian President Joko made the announcement at a ceremony held July 3 in the Karawang region near the capital, Jakarta, to mark the opening of the new plant.

The investment is $1.2 billion, split 50-50 between LG Energy and Hyundai Motor. The annual battery production capacity is 10 GWh, which is equivalent to 150,000 electric vehicles. The plan is to invest an additional $2 billion in the second phase to increase the capacity to 20 GWh.

The company will produce lithium-ion batteries using a cathode material called NCMA. The high nickel content increases battery performance and range. The new plant will be LG Energy’s fifth production site in Southeast Asia, following those in South Korea, Poland, China and the U.S.

LG Energy has already supplied NCMA to Tesla, among others. In addition to Indonesia, the new plant will also serve as an export base for batteries used in electric vehicles sold by Hyundai Motor in neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, India, South Korea and elsewhere.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis:  South Korea, which is positioning its battery industry as a key national industry, is moving very fast. The fact that it was able to get its battery plant up and running before its competitors may give it an advantage in its future business development in the region. But China’s CATL, the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer, plans to build new factories for batteries, battery materials and battery recycling in Indonesia in cooperation with local companies. The investment is about $6 billion. The news of the new plant in Indonesia is good news for South Korea’s automotive industry, but whether South Korea will be able to maintain a stable supply of EV battery materials in the future remains to be seen yet. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

Honda To Cut Thai Car Production

THAILAND REPORT

Honda said it plans to integrate its two automotive manufacturing plants in Thailand by 2025. The move will cut annual production capacity in Thailand by 50% to 270,000 units.

Production at the Ayutthaya plant will be discontinued and consolidated at the Prachinburi plant in central Thailand. The Ayutthaya plant has an annual production capacity of 150,000 units. Honda’s total production capacity in Thailand is 270,000 units, but there was a surplus of 147,000 units in 2011. The company will improve the profitability of its four-wheel business by reducing fixed costs. The Ayutthaya plant will continue to be used as an auto parts plant.

Source: The Nikkei

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