US Tariffs Could Hurt Japan GDP
On April 12, as I write this, things are still in flux. There is a lot of media coverage every day, with reports on the tariffs reaching almost hysterical levels. The reciprocal tariff rate for Japan announced by the U.S. is 24%, which is an unexpectedly high level given the past relationship between the two countries.
As a result, Japan’s real GDP is expected to fall by about 0.6% in the short term (2025) and 1.8% in the medium term (2029). This will have a huge impact on Japan, which has maintained a growth rate of around 3% per year. It has been reported that Japan is currently negotiating with the Trump administration, but it is doubtful whether the current Japanese government will be able to negotiate effectively with the US. We will see whether the terms will be reconsidered after the negotiations in the future.
I would just like to point out one thing: President Trump talks about Japan’s failure to buy American cars as unfair and negligent, but this is a clear mistake. It is true that American cars do not sell well in Japan. GM is the only company with a formal dealer network in Japan, and it is even hard to find GM dealer shops in Japan. Chrysler pulled out in 2018 and Ford in 2016.
