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With regards to zero-emission medium and heavy vehicles, we have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks. At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment?
Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks. However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment. Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks due to a lack of a power infrastructure.
Under its new Five Year Plan, Beijing will expand restriction on the use of vehicles entering Beijing. At the same time, Beijing will restrict the use of China III diesel trucks and will implement regional traffic restrictions during peak hours of working days, strengthen the management of illegal electric three and four wheeled vehicles, and implement a preferential traffic policy for new energy logistics and distribution vehicles.
The Five Year Plan also calls for the promotion of low-carbon new energy transportation tools, and the promotion of “oil for electricity” of vehicles in public transport, rental (including cruise and online appointment), tourism and freight transportation.
Today, 69,000 diesel trucks have been eliminated in Beijing, and the proportion of clean energy and new energy vehicles in public transportation has reached 90.2%. Beijing plans to accelerate the promotion of new energy intelligent vehicle technology and cost reductions in many applications.
The second wave of COVID-19 has put the brakes on a rebound in India’s commercial vehicle market, reports Aditya Kondejkar, Power Systems Research Analyst for South Asia Operations, in the May 2021 issue of Motorindia magazine.
Kondejkar notes that the second wave of the pandemic has caused shortages of semiconductors and steel as well as weaker consumer demand. These forces have pushed commercial vehicle production down nearly 60% month-on-month (MoM) in April.
Kondejkar points out that the India CV market witnessed a strong performance in 2018 with more than 1.13 million units produced, owing in large part to GST implementation and replacement demand. In 2019, however, the Indian CV market began shrinking as it faced headwinds from revised axle load norms, vehicle over-capacity, BS-VI transition, and a liquidity crunch.
SUMMARY: Our PowerTrackerTM survey of dealers and distributors reported that overall gen-set sales increased in Q3 2021 up 4.3% from Q2 2021 levels. This builds on a sales increase of 6.8% in Q2 2021 and a slower start to the year of -7.4% in Q1 2021 as sales were constrained by availability and supply issues.
This quarter’s results were based on interviews with 110 gen-set dealer and distributor respondents based in North America. The overarching theme in the third quarter was a continuation of sales growth being constrained by the availability and supply of gen-sets. Longer lead times for dealers to receive shipments is limiting their sales – even though demand from end users remains at high levels.
The data comes from the proprietary PowerTrackerTM series of syndicated surveys conducted each quarter by Power Systems Research. Each quarter we interview gen-set dealers and distributors and other businesses across North America to maintain a pulse on the sales channels as well as monitor the ongoing needs and plans for businesses to purchase standby gen-sets to support their business operations.
Tutaev Motor Plant has completed creation of 18.5 liter 8 cylinder Vee diesel engine TMZ-8807.10 with two turbochargers, electronic operation system and iron cast cylinder block heads. The powertrain pushes out 653 hp and is a part of new engine family, the TMZ-880. The development of the TMZ-880 family was started in 2016.
The new engine will be tested on the AG combine Palesse KVK-8060 made in the Belorussian Gomselmash plant in 2022. It will replace the German Mercedes OM-502LA. Decisions about mass production will be made, depending on test results
PSR Analysis: A few years ago, Tutaev Motor plant became part of the KAMAZ structure. Since then, it has received a good boost in development. Among the new projects of TMZ are a joint venture with Chinese Weichai, and a new HHP engine range. PSR
Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah
The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms of progress. While touching upon a clutch of challenges plaguing the CV industry, he claimed the scenario as ‘VUCA’ (short for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) in nature – a new normal that we have to accustom to.
“The world is no different. The global CV industry will also see lower demand and output in the short to medium term, which makes it all the more imperative for the domestic industry to become more competitive and grab as much as opportunities,” he said.
At the same time, Shah said, change and uncertainties have always been part of the CV landscape, yet the time frame available for stakeholders to adapt and thrive has shortened recently. “Times like that of COVID-19 have exposed numerous susceptibilities across the value chain that warrants a 360-degree overhaul,” he said.
Other leading industry executives participating in the panel were Anuj Kathuria, Chief Operating Officer, Ashok Leyland; Jayant Davar, Founder, Co-Chairman and MD, Sandhar Technologies; Sushil Rathi, COO (Transport and Procurement), Mahindra Logistics, and Siddharth Bhandari, Chairman of Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA) – Bengal Region, and CEO, Bhandari Automobiles.
In his closing remarks, Shah said all stakeholders should become a change catalyst themselves, and should not wait for the external demand drivers to turn positive. Becoming competitive and collaborative is paramount, he said, thereby focusing more on solutions for the challenges.
“Our businesses have to move from build-to-print models to innovation and R&D-driven enterprises,” he said. “Since the traditional demand drivers are not promising, we need to do a lot internally as an industry to move beyond the uncertainties to make a winning strategy.”
This is neither the first nor the last crisis for this industry, he said, but a crisis of this kind cannot be wasted without gaining good experiences and key learning. “We have to stop playing individually, but join others to perform a symphony to make the difference,” he added.
SUMMARY: Considering sales across all power ranges, gen-set
sales were off to a slower start in Q1 2017, down 5.5% compared to Q4 2016
levels. This decrease follows Q4 2016
where overall dealer reported sales were flat relative to Q3 2016 levels.
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales experienced a sharp increase in Q3
2017 with overall sales up 21.8% over Q2 2017 levels due to demand from
hurricanes Harvey and Irma. This
increase follows Q2 2017 where dealer reported sales were up 1.8% relative to
Q1 2017 levels.
What changes do you see in the PSR Truck Production Index in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2020?
Overall, we are seeing stronger momentum for commercial truck orders and sales which bode well for production in Q1 2021.
Supply chain issues will impact short term production as companies are still having difficulty with staffing numbers and various virus protocols that disrupt production. These problems are expected to continue throughout at least the first half of the year.
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q1 2019 declined 13.6% from Q4 2018, largely due to an unusually steep drop in sales of portable gen-sets. Sales were anemic between 21kW and 500kW and declined in the 501-1000kW and 1001-2000kW ranges by more than any other Q1 in the last five years.
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