Power Systems Research Expands Forecast Capabilities and Focus on Technology Adoption 

Guy Youngs Joins PSR Team
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading source of global production and forecast information for powered equipment, has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Guy Youngs, an experienced market intelligence specialist.

Youngs, who has more than 30 years’ experience as an industry market analyst, most recently spent 11 years working for Perkins Engines in the United Kingdom.

While at Perkins Engines, he led the development of important forecast tools, including the creation of a Market Model used by Perkins Engines’ global team as a single source for its market analysis and planning efforts.

At PSR, Youngs will assume the new role of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead. He will be responsible for continuing to develop and adapt PSR’s industry forecast, overseeing the rate of technology adoption of alternative power sources into the future outlook and technology mix. 

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Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

GLOBAL REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many factors are pointing to modest growth in Q3 2023. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.4% in 2023 vs 2022 (it was 2.6% in Q2 2023), and the outlook for the next few years remains positive with growth accelerating from 2025.  Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main countries to show a decline are South Korea, Slovakia, Netherlands. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

Several drivers are influencing the global economic picture.

  • Fuel prices eased earlier this year, recently they have grown slightly and are no longer showing signs of easing. This remains a serious issue.
  • Supply chains remain constrained and show no signs of improving.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer have declined massively following Russia’s ending on the Grain Deal. Alternative routes (overland, and via the Danube) simply don’t have the necessary capacity.
  • Inflation is easing, but it continues to be a major concern for central banks as they consider raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a difficult situation.
  • Risk of recession continues in the background for several countries, notably China, USA and Germany, and this could drag other countries into recession.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, and a new variant has the medical world concerned.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps building, which is a positive sign.
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Hino Motors’ Engine Fraud Covers 560,000 vehicles

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hino Motors has announced that the falsification of diesel engine emission values, which was previously announced in March, had been taking place since at least 2003 or earlier. The company had previously stated that the fraud began in the fall of 2016. In 2016, the company also revealed that it had falsely reported to the MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in response to its request for a fact-finding survey on exhaust gas and fuel efficiency tests.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Although I do not wish to make such negativity a theme, I cannot overlook this issue. The impact on the industry of the fraud at Hino, which has the top share of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector in Japan, is significant. Isuzu has suspended shipments of four bus models that use Hino engines. Not limited to the automotive field, Tadano cranes, Kobelco hydraulic excavators, Hitachi Construction Machinery wheel loaders, and Kato rough terrain cranes have also been forced to suspend shipments after the problem came to light.

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2021 Global Economic Outlook

Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the Global economic outlook by region and industry segment.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, an editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about his global economic outlook. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.

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Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector. 

The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.

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Coronavirus Has Major Impact on Global Production of Off-Highway Equipment and Medium & Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Download Your PDF Copy of the Presentation

ST. PAUL, MN–A team of international analysts from Power Systems Research (PSR) analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the global production of Off-Highway Equipment and MH-Duty Vehicles in several regions today.

The team examined the impact of the coronavirus in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and South America for the remainder of 2020 and into Q1 2021.  Download your copy of the presentation here.

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Global Economic Fundamentals Strong, But Uncertainties Linger

This report is excerpted from the Q3 2019 Update Bulletin prepared for clients of Power Systems Research, Oct. 1, 2019.

SUMMARY. If you were to look at the latest global macro-economic fundamentals, you would see a strong and healthy economy and a rosy picture.  On the other hand, if you follow the latest updates on key industries and their players worldwide, optimism is not that strong. 

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DATAPOINT: Global Snowmobiles, 2021 Production, 107,250 Units

107,250 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Snowmobiles to be produced in Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan, and the U.S. in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

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GM Opens Third Shift at Joinville Engine Production Plant

GM has added a third shift at its plant in Joinville, SC, Brazil, to increase production capacity and supply engines for the Montana, the new Light Pickup below the S10 size. The capacity production increase forecast is 30%.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The new GM Montana pickup is aimed to complete with the Fiat Toro and Fiat Strada, and grab market share from the leaders. GM also expects to export engines, if the shortage of semiconductors can be solved, which will allow the plant to reach the desired production levels.    PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research