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2021-11-21

Chip Shortages Cause Worst Festive Season in Decade for Auto Industry

Aditya Kondejkar

2021’s festive period from Navratri to Diwali (October) marked the worst performance for India automakers in nearly a decade. Usually, sales of PVs peak during the period, however, the demand was much lower this year. 

Further, two-wheeler and tractor sales dropped by about 10%. The major reason for this drop is supply-side challenges on semiconductors and lack of demand in entry-level segments for both PVs and two-wheelers.

In the commercial vehicles space, the situation was somewhat better with an increase in demand for interstate movement of goods.

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NEDO Begins R&D of Hydrogen Aircraft

The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) says it will launch a four-topic research and development project for the development of next-generation aircraft, including core technologies for hydrogen aircraft and drastic weight reduction of major structural components of aircraft.

By using Japan’s strengths in elemental technologies such as hydrogen and materials, the project aims to increase the ratio of participation in international joint development of airframes and engines (currently about 20-30%) and contribute to the decarbonization of the aviation sector. It will be implemented as part of the Green Innovation Fund project with a total of 2 trillion yen. The budget is 21.08 billion yen. Kawasaki will develop the core technology for hydrogen aircraft, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. and ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. will develop complex shapes and dramatically reduce the weight of major structural parts of aircraft.

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2021-12-19

DATAPOINT: North American Golf Cars 2021 Production: 56,200 Units

56,200 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of golf cars to be produced in North America  during 2021. In this report, we consider North America to be the United States.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share:  With 42% of total units produced, Yamaha Motor leads in production of gas-powered Golf Cars in the United States.  In second position is Textron (EZGO) with 32%; third, is Club car with 26%.

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Q2 2022 PSR Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 11.5%

PSR-TPI-Q2-2022-FINALDownload

St. Paul, MN (July 13, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 104 to 116, or11.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2022, from Q1 2022. The year-over-year (Q2 2021 to the Q2 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 130 to 116, or -10.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 10% this year primarily due to a drop in demand in China and Eastern Europe. However, a slowing global economy will also place pressure on demand moving forward.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues. In China, truck and bus overcapacity will hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war will significantly impact demand and production in Eastern Europe. Global supply chains will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions. There is critical concern about major slowdowns in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel prices and inflation which does not appear to be going away anytime soon.

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2022-10-21

DataPoint: North America Skid Steer Loaders, 2022 Production, 92,700 Units

A Skid Steer Loader, also known as a skid loader, skid-steer loader, or skid steer, is a small rigid frame, engine-powered machine with lift arms used to attach a wide variety of labor-saving tools or attachments.

The four major types of skid steer loaders are Agricultural, 29%; Rental Fleets,  22%; Construction, 20%, and Landscape, 12%.

92,700 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Skid Steer Loaders to be produced in North America (United States and Canada) in 2022.

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Power Systems Research Truck Production Index drops 13.7%

PSR-TPI-Q3-2022.FDownload
Global Truck Production REPORT

St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China.  A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.

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2022-12-14

CV Production Nears Pre-covid Levels

INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar

A favorable mix of factors is propelling demand for commercial vehicles to their best-ever pre-covid-19 volumes in India. Even though the CV segment has not reached its 2018 peak, it is expected to grow by double digits in the current fiscal year.

This growth is based on healthy demand and a relatively low base last year. While the sales are in green for all the major OEMs, market leader Tata Motors has reported year-over-year drop of 3%.

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Q4 2022 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 3.7%

PSR-TPI-Q4-2022Download

St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

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2023-04-16

Global ICE Industry Cliff Is Here

This article includes an important graph showing vehicle production numbers between 2015 and 2026, (projected for 2023–2026) which are based on historic BEV growth data and trends. Hybrids are lumped in with ICE cars and are shown as a preference over full BEVs which is clear in the data.

The chart shows that the overall auto industry has declined from its peak in 2017–due to the pandemic and chip shortage–before it started to recover in 2021. This chart/model is conservative in predicting industry growth at 1.6% y/y going forward and BEV growth at 50% for 2023 (average BEV growth was 57% for the past 7 years)

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2023-05-24

Show Report: Agrishow 2023

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT  
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Our Power Systems Research South America Team visited the Agrishow 2023, in Ribeirão Preto-SP, Brazil, visiting customers and checking the new launches and market expectations. It’s the world’s largest show on Agricultural Equipment       

The general expectations of exhibitors we talked with were not positive. Exhibitors carefully spoke about some factors influencing the market, such as lower commodities prices and the new government often speaking against Agribusiness that does not promote positive investment decisions.

On the other hand, the projections of business during the show surpass US$ 2,6 Billion (R$ 13,2 Billion), that is 18% nominal growth over 2022 business and actual growth of 9.5% discounting inflation. The expectation is for a recovery in commodities prices in 2H 2023. The government is also announcing more credit for this segment and OEMs are offering their own credit lines.

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