This article includes an important graph showing vehicle production numbers between 2015 and 2026, (projected for 2023–2026) which are based on historic BEV growth data and trends. Hybrids are lumped in with ICE cars and are shown as a preference over full BEVs which is clear in the data.
The chart shows that the overall auto industry has declined from its peak in 2017–due to the pandemic and chip shortage–before it started to recover in 2021. This chart/model is conservative in predicting industry growth at 1.6% y/y going forward and BEV growth at 50% for 2023 (average BEV growth was 57% for the past 7 years)
Putting numbers on it, the drop in ICE vehicle demand will mean 2.5 million fewer vehicles this year, 4 million fewer in 2024, 6.5 million fewer in 2025, and a whopping 9.5 million fewer in 2026 for a loss of ICE sales totaling 22 million vehicles over the next 4 years. This was calculated allowing for 1.6% growth overall for the industry.
The article then goes on to analyze which car companies are at risk.
Source: CleanTechnica: Read The Article
PSR Analysis: This article is interesting because it’s the first article to actually put a date on the cliff for ICE engines, to put volumes against the decline and also to suggest which car makers are more at risk. The year 2027 isn’t very far away, either. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research
