St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 15.8% in 2022 when final numbers are available in Q1 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China. Global MHCV demand is expected to improve by 4.6% in 2023 even with concerns of a slowing global economy. Ongoing supply chain disruptions along with generally higher inflation and a risk of Covid variants returning are also a concern moving forward.
All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed in 2022 due to a variety of issues. In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe. While the global supply chain is showing improvement, it will remain a problem in 2023 for all regions. There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economy as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.
North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 12.5% in 2022 over last year primarily driven by improved class 8 truck production. While not back to pre-pandemic levels, the supply chain has seen improvement during the past few months. Within the class 8 truck segment, PSR expects truck demand to remain strong into the first part of next year as a result of significant pent-up heavy truck demand. While commercial vehicle demand is expected to decline slightly in 2023, production levels are expected to remain strong through at least the first half of the year. PSR
Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
