2020-05-15
Power Systems Research analyzes markets of trucks, buses, agricultural and construction machines
The overall slump in production and sales of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) as well as for agricultural and construction machines should last throughout this year; these segments won’t recover until 2021. PSR
2020-04-25
Due to the spread of COVID-19, Japanese automobile OEMs have stopped production in Indonesia. Isuzu stopped operating its plants April 1, and Honda and Suzuki stopped April 13.
Japanese OEMs are struggling to adapt to the COVID-19 problem. Plants are being temporarily shut down and production adjustments are being made.
While domestic plants are generally operating quietly, overseas bases are being affected in various ways, depending on the country. Here is a summary of announcements by the major companies.
April 17, 2020–Taiwan reported no new coronavirus cases on April 14, 2020, marking the first-time authorities there have reported zero new cases in more than a month. It’s also the latest achievement for a health system that first acted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in December.
With a population of around 23 million, Taiwan has only 393 confirmed COVID-19 cases; six people have died from the disease. The last time Taiwan’s Central Epidemic Command Center announced no new cases was on March 9 – 36 days ago.
As of today, India is relatively less impacted by COVID than other nations. Because of the very bold and unprecedented move of a complete lockdown for about 40 days, India has managed to restrict the number of positive cases to 17,000.
Considering that India is a country with a population of over 1 billion persons living in challenging on-ground conditions, it is a phenomenal effort of proactive and timely response from the government as well as restraint observed by citizens.
The Ecology and Environment Ministry is extending the transition period for OEMs and the sales period for NS 5 inventory products.
Source: China Central Television Read The Article
So here comes the impact of coronavirus for the industry. But what we should bear in mind is that despite this latest news, the capital metro area, the Yangtze delta area and the Zhujiang River Delta area, three of the most prosperous areas in China, have already implemented NS 6 regulation.
These regions can’t roll back their policy. If any OEMs not ready to go NS 6, they should do it now. COVID-19 buys some time, but it won’t be so forever. PSR
Qin Fen is Business Development Manager
The first units of the 3.5-ton LCV have been assembled at the GEFCO Plant in Guaíba-RS as the company begins producing under a manufacturing contract for Foton.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
Despite this news, the speed of the development of the new line will be reduced by COVID-19 and related factors, including the social restrictions and workforce mobility, the impact in the LCV segment and also the lack of parts from China, major part of the content of these Trucks. PSR
Different from the segments with 4 wheels or more, Motorcycles plants worked normally in March. The total production has been of 296 k motorcycles in the first quarter, about 7% above the same period of 2019. However, the stops in this sector started March 30 and will remain until the beginning of May.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
Although motorcycles are also a way of delivering packages in big Cities, sales of motorcycles in Brazil have a closer relationship with lower income individuals who see motorcycles as an alternative to bad public transportation or even animal transportation in rural locations.
This segment of the society has a high number of informal jobs, mostly related to service, heavily impacted by the social restriction measurements. Therefore, the impact on this business for the remainder of the year should be considerably high, despite of the growth in the first quarter. PSR
In an interview April 9 with AutoData, the CEOs of 4Truck and Librelato pointed to a heavy recovery for transportation and the trailers business in September. The companies seem optimistic about the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Brazil.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
The trailer segment, as well as the class 7 and class 8 segments, were enjoying a growth trend before the COVID-19 social restrictions were imposed. In the beginning of the quarantine period, the number of heavy vehicles passing through main roads tolls was not reduced, different from the light and medium segments.
The rational is that a reduction of GDP is concentrated in the Services segment, that does not impact heavily on Transportation. At the same time, Agricultural production, a segment that has more impact on Transportation, should remain stable or grow. In our analysis it is too early to define the impact on Transportation, although some Transportation companies already are reporting reduced business. PSR
Marcopolo started producing again April 13 after a break forced by COVID-19 control measures. The plants of Caxias do Sul and Duque de Caxias are producing again with lowered output. The number of workers is reduced and the space between people is expanded, among other measures for safety purposes. The São Mateus plant has not reopened.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
The current scenario points to a heavy impact on the Bus market due to reduced customer traffic that puts reduces fleet owner revenue. On the other hand, this segment is often boosted by government programs, like “Caminhos da Escola” in Brazil.
The actions for recovery after the crisis may lower the impact substantially, especially in a scenario where government spending is no longer limited to the approved budget, there is strong pent up demand for school buses and actions to stimulate industry and jobs are badly needed. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development SA
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