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Tesla Semi Lines Up for $165M in California Incentives
Chris Fisher The update was initially reported by The Los Angeles Times.
Tesla reportedly is positioned to receive roughly $165 million in California clean-truck incentives for its Semi.
As per the Times, the Tesla Semi’s funding will come from California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Incentive Project (HVIP), which was designed to accelerate the adoption of cleaner medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Since its launch in 2009, the HVIP has distributed more than $1.6 billion to support zero-emission trucks and buses across the state.
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2026 Growth of 4.9% Seen in Truck Production
Chris Fisher Medium and heavy truck production in North America is expected to increase by 4.9% this year compared with 2025. While class 8 truck production is expected to increase by 6.1% this year, the industry continues to be negatively impacted by the weight of the tariffs, low freight demand, excess truck capacity and relatively high finance rates which is expected to continue through at least the first half of the year.
With regard to the implementation of the phase 3 GHG emission regulations, it will be later in the spring before the EPA finalizes any revisions to the standards. Many in the industry believe the EPA will retain the 0.035 g/hp-hr standard along with the 2027 implementation date but cancel the extended warranty requirements which would have added significant up-front cost to the trucks.
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Government Program To Help Truck Industry
Fabio Ferraresi In January 2026, the Brazilian federal government launched the Move Brazil Program, a credit support initiative totaling approximately USD 2.0 billion. The program aims to support the domestic truck manufacturing industry and stimulate fleet renewal amid a sharp downturn in heavy-duty vehicle demand.
Financing will be provided through BNDES with annual interest rates between 13% and 14%, grace periods of up to six months, and repayment terms of up to five years, capped at approximately USD 10 million per beneficiary. Eligible beneficiaries include independent truck drivers, cooperatives, transport companies, and large fleet operators, with 10% of total funding reserved for independents and cooperatives.
Financing is restricted to new trucks manufactured in Brazil and compliant with Proconve P8 emission standards, as well as used trucks (model year 2012 onward) meeting Proconve P7 requirements and local content criteria. The program will be available for six months and is positioned as a short-term measure to mitigate layoffs and production cuts in the heavy truck segment.
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EPA Won’t Delay 2027 NOx Rule, Plans Changes
Chris Fisher The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is moving forward with the 2027 timeline for its heavy-duty NOx rule—currently set to take effect with the 2027 model year—but says changes are in store.
The American Trucking Associations (ATA), National Tank Truck Carriers, Truckload Carriers Association, and 49 state trucking associations in August penned a letter to EPA, asking the regulator to push implementation to 2031, citing “substantial compliance costs and operational burdens at a time when the trucking industry is already contending with historically difficult market conditions.”
Administrator Lee Zeldin in March announced that the EPA was reevaluating the Biden-era 2022 Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle rule that regulates oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and other emissions beginning with Model Year 2027.
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Trucking Recovery To Be Driven by Supply Side?
Chris Fisher The signs of a freight recovery that appeared early this year are gone, replaced by a tough market where recovery will have to come from a supply-side correction, American Trucking Associations’ Chief Economist Bob Costello said at ATA’s 2025 Management Conference & Exhibition in San Diego.
Costello delivered a blunt and sobering economic warning: new tariffs, persistent stagflation, and a slowing labor market have created “absolutely unsustainable” conditions for many carriers, and the only way out, at least near-term, is to erase capacity from the highway.
“It’s not easy to talk about because it’s people’s livelihoods, but it’s a necessary evil,” Costello said, noting that freight demand is unlikely to improve anytime soon. “This has got to be a supply-driven change in the market.”
The current 18% effective tariff rate, nearly six times higher than it was during the first Trump administration, is a level not seen since the 1930s. Costello warned that the industry is only in the “bottom of the second or top of the third inning” of feeling the impact. “Any benefits of putting tariffs on foreign goods… are years in the future, but the cost hits much quicker,” he said.
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