China is replacing its diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected, potentially reshaping global fuel demand and the future of heavy transport. In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year
Heavy trucks carry the lifeblood of modern economies. They also contribute significantly to global emissions of carbon-dioxide: In 2019, road freight generated a third of all transport-related carbon emissions. Trucking has been considered hard to decarbonize since electric trucks with heavy batteries can carry less cargo than those using energy-dense diesel
Investments in charging infrastructure are also boosting demand for electric trucks. CATL said it plans a nationwide network of swap stations covering 150,000 kilometers (about 93,000 miles) out of China’s 184,000 kms (about 114,000 miles) of expressway
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PSR Analysis: While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese scientists. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research
