News: Commercial Vehicles

2021-11-21

Global Economy On the Path To Economic Recovery, Despite Increased Uncertainty

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

The global economy is on a healthy rebound trend, but issues with supply chain, logistics and the re-surgency of COVID-19 during Q3 2021 remained.  Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in H1 2021; however, many challenges still remain.  The rebound will continue to vary widely among different regions/countries, but a complete recovery is not expected until the global pandemic is under control.   With some minor changes among regions and market segments globally, our overall forecast from last quarter remains in place, and that is good news to our industry players, OEMs, powertrain, and component suppliers.

The global economic performance last quarter was in line with our initial projections from earlier this year.  As we projected last quarter, we did not expect any rapid economic recovery in H2 2021, however, we continued to witness a steady increase in economic activities.  During the last quarter of 2021 Power Systems Research expects this trend to remain in place.

Government support in the form of fiscal policies and public health management are driving the economic rebound and largely explain variations in performance across countries. With the targeted monetary support to consumers and certain industries, the demand for products and services globally is coming back, and we expect this trend to carry over into Q1 2022.

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2021-10-24

Subsidy Program for Scrapping Diesel Vehicles Ineffective

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT

About half of those who received South Korean government aid to scrap their old diesel vehicles early have purchased diesel vehicles again, according to a new study. The government spent 845.4 billion won (about 79.6 billion yen) in the last five years (2016-2020) to scrap 959,000 aging diesel vehicles, but the number of all diesel vehicles increased by 9% during the same period. The government has pointed out that diesel vehicles are the main culprit of particulate matter such as PM2.5 and has implemented a policy to “eliminate” them, but this policy has not been effective.

There is subsidy support if old diesel cars are scrapped depending on the level of emissions in operation. In addition, there are additional subsidies if you buy an eco-car or a gasoline/LPG car.

If old diesel vehicles with a gross weight of less than 3.5 tons are scrapped early, they can receive up to 6 million won (about 570,000 yen) in subsidies. According to data from the Ministry of the Environment, 48,757 people in the Seoul metropolitan area purchased new cars in the first half of last year after receiving subsidies to scrap their old diesel vehicles. However, of the cars purchased by these people, 21,686 (44%) were diesel vehicles. Moreover, 15,990 of them were used diesel cars, 2.8 times more than the number of new cars (5,696).

Source: Chosun Online

PSR Analysis: It is hard to say that this is a flaw in the system, but the reality is that this system has not achieved its purpose and has produced the opposite effect. The reason for this situation is simple: many of the users of trucks under 3.5 tons are small businesses, and considering their expenses, they do not choose gasoline vehicles, and new vehicles are not an option, so they choose used diesel vehicles.

EVs and fuel cell vehicles, which are now being widely reported, are attracting attention as vehicles equipped with next-generation technologies. However, especially in the case of commercial vehicles, the high initial cost is frowned upon. The market should take another look at the fact that inexpensive vehicles that can easily demonstrate their contribution to business will be selected. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

2021-10-23

Volkswagen Truck and Bus and CBMM To Develop Niobium Battery for EV

Volkswagen Truck and Bus, part of the Traton Group, and CBMM, a Brazilian giant of niobium mining, announced an agreement to develop batteries with Niobium for Electric Vehicles. It promises to recharge a Truck Battery in less than 10 minutes and provide a traveling higher range. Volkswagen will start tests in 2022 to develop a functional vehicle with Niobium batteries by the end of 2022.

Source: Revista Oeste     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Primarily used to improve the strength of high grade steels, Niobium is also used for super conductors and has been tested by CBMM and Toshiba in batteries for three years with positive results. The solution applied for MHV may put Brazil in a strong position in MHV EV segment, since 97% of the Niobium reserves in the world are in Brazil.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development , South America, for Power Systems Research

Komatsu To Expand Autonomous Truck Operation in Brazil

In line with global trends of automatization, Komatsu is expanding its autonomous Truck operation in Brazil. It already has six trucks operating in the mining complex of Carajás (PA) and other four trucks will be introduced this year. Komatsu says the autonomous driving technology brings 40% savings on tires and brakes, 13% on overall maintenance and 15% on productivity, considering the elimination of stops for driver changing and rest.

Source: M&T    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Carajás is the biggest mining complex in the world. It makes sense that the leading edge of the technology is being used here. These trucks are a reality, and they will progressively replace trucks driven by people in the next few years in mining complexes such as Carajas and other big ones in Brazil and South America. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

Q3 2021 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 10.7%

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St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 131 to 117, or 10.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. The year-over-year (Q3 2020 to Q3 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was 141 to 117, or 17%.

Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022.  Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products, and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

2021-10-03

Second Wave of COVID-19 Hits India Commercial Vehicle Market

Motorindia-May_2021Download
Aditya Kondejkar

The second wave of COVID-19 has put the brakes on a rebound in India’s commercial vehicle market, reports Aditya Kondejkar, Power Systems Research Analyst for South Asia Operations, in the May 2021 issue of Motorindia magazine.

Kondejkar notes that the second wave of the pandemic has caused shortages of semiconductors and steel as well as weaker consumer demand. These forces have pushed commercial vehicle production down nearly 60% month-on-month (MoM) in April.

Kondejkar points out that the India CV market witnessed a strong performance in 2018 with more than 1.13 million
units produced, owing in large part to GST implementation and replacement demand. In 2019, however, the Indian CV market began shrinking as it faced headwinds from revised axle load norms, vehicle over-capacity, BS-VI transition, and a liquidity crunch.

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2021-09-26

Mercedes Announces BEV Bus for Brazil

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Mercedes says it has committed an investment of US$ 20 million for the launch of the eO500U, the first electric bus by the German OEM, the market leader in Brazil. Roberto Leoncini, Sales Director said that Mercedes opted for beginning the electrification of the MHV segment by the Bus products because it has higher impact on the population.

One of the key drivers for this launch is the new legislation for São Paulo city that aims to convert 50% of the fleet to electric by 2027. This means 7,000 electric buses will be sold by 2027. Sales forecast starts with 50 to 150 units by 2022.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With new legislation, OEMs rush for e-bus chassis launch to keep market share. Meanwhile, BYD celebrates the opportunity to grow with the lack of competitors, but it needs an improved in business model and strategic aspects to grow. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

Eletra Converts Trucks and Buses to Electric in Brazil

Eletra started converting Trucks and Buses from 3.5 to 54 Tons for the range of 50km to 150km by replacing the actual Powertrain (ICE, Transmission, Axels,) and suspension with batteries, electric drive and new suspension. The main benefits for the approach is to provide 30% less cost than a new Electric Truck and shorten the timing to meet sustainability targets, since the retrofit is done quickly. Companies like Ambev (AB-Inbev) announced 102 trucks retrofitted with Eletra.

Source: M&T    Read The Article

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Hyundai Motor To Convert Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses To Hydrogen and Electric Vehicles

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT

The Hyundai Motor Group has announced its “Hydrogen Vision 2040,” which states that 2040 will be the first year of the popularization of hydrogen energy. The company plans to launch new models of all commercial vehicles, including heavy-duty trucks and buses, with hydrogen-electric and electric vehicles. The goal is to reduce the price of hydrogen-electric vehicles to the level of general electric vehicles by 2030 by developing a next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system that is inexpensive and has good performance.

The Hyundai Motor Group will not launch any new commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the future. It plans to mass-produce hydrogen-electric trucks in the country in the first half of next year and plans to apply hydrogen fuel cells to all of its commercial vehicle lineup by 2028.

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New Russia Electric Transport Plan To Cost US$ 8 Billion

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The Russian government has approved a new plan for electric transport development into 2030 that will be implemented in two stages. At the end of the first stage, the plan calls for production of at least 25,000 electric vehicles and the launching of 9,400 charging stations.

By 2030, 10% of all new vehicles should be electrical, and the number of charging stations should increase to 72,000. In Russia, by 2030 it’s planned to launch production of accumulator battery cells, and to build 1,000 hydrogen fuel stations for vehicles.

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