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The commercial industry will grow with trucks and buses expected to do well. Truck sales will improve as many industries require more units as they are running at full capacity
The Indian economy managed to revive itself during the first and second COVID waves and quickly achieved a V-shaped recovery.
This year, GST is reaching high levels. GST collection has witnessed a growth of 26% YoY – YTD CY22. Furthermore, the generation of e-way bills is increasing rapidly. The generation of e-way bills is directly proportional to truck utilization and drives vehicle demand.
The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.
In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.
The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?
The Brazil government announced June 29 the new Safra Plan for 2022/2023 with a total of R$ 340 Billion (US$ 65 Bi) to fund business related to Agriculture, including Agricultural Machines and Trucks for product transportation. The amount is 36% higher than the previous year plan.
PSR Analysis: While the volume of funds is higher, the interest rates are also higher. In addition, the prices of agricultural supplies are higher than in the previous cycle. Agricultural Machines should maintain its high production and sales trend while Trucks should grow due to pre-buy caused by Proconve P8 (Equivalent to Euro 6) by January 2023.PSR
SUMMARY. The United States economy is facing several serious problems that don’t have simple solutions and are not likely to be solved for several years, reaching out to the presidential elections in 2024.
Take your pick of problems: Inflation. Stock Market. Climate Changes. Interest Rates. Housing Prices. Gasoline Prices. Food Prices. Social Unrest. Political Conflicts. Worker shortages. Supply Chain Shortages. Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
The bottom line here is that consumers, investors, businesses, and governments are uncertain about what the future holds for the next several years, and this uncertainty makes it difficult to build multiple-year action plans, whether it’s for purchases, manufacturing, marketing, or investing.
Uncertainty makes people nervous, and Uncertainty is the name of the game in the U.S. for the foreseeable future.
However, we’re still optimistic about the U.S. economy and we see 2022 production growing by 11.6% but that activity is likely to fall to 2.7% next year and drop again to 1.5% in 2024.
March 10, 2022–Foreign companies which have paused their business operations in Russia must resume their work, or face bankruptcy of their Russian division.
Foreign companies made huge investments to localization production in Russia, and they don’t want to leave the Russian market, but they face unprecedent pressure by their own regulators. In this situation the government has developed three scenarios for foreign concerns’ subsidiaries which have production plants in Russia.
Taxes on Industrialized Products (IPI) will be reduced by 25% for most of industrialized goods, in a Governmental effort to boost Industry production. The total impact in federal revenue will be US$ 5 billion in 2022.
PSR Analysis: This should affect positively sales and profitability in all engine powered segments. However, profitability should be more impacted than volume. Construction Equipment should have the higher impact as well as spare parts. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
The 2022-2023 Budget is focused on building long-term strength using investment as the growth lever while maintaining policy stability and inclusivity. The 35% increased capex outlay, major infrastructure projects like 25,000 km road construction, 100 Cargo terminals, Project GatiShakti, 5G network, optic fiber cable laying and the recent PLI schemes are major positives.
“The blueprint of a digitally enabled, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, coupled with measures that will drive sustainable yet inclusive growth at a rapid pace for the next twenty-five years. These are the bedrock of the proposals announced in the Union Budget 2022-23, as we redefine our economy in a post-pandemic world. Setting the direction for creation of urban fossil fuel free zones, policy for battery swapping and energy as service and incentives for creating a vibrant start-up eco system, India could soon emerge as a fore-runner of green mobility solutions for the world” – Sunjay J Kapur, President ACMA (Automobile component manufacturers association of India)
SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out. The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future. As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.
Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences. Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind. Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.
Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago. The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022. Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular.
The global economy is on a healthy rebound trend, but issues with supply chain, logistics and the re-surgency of COVID-19 during Q3 2021 remained. Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in H1 2021; however, many challenges still remain. The rebound will continue to vary widely among different regions/countries, but a complete recovery is not expected until the global pandemic is under control. With some minor changes among regions and market segments globally, our overall forecast from last quarter remains in place, and that is good news to our industry players, OEMs, powertrain, and component suppliers.
The global economic performance last quarter was in line with our initial projections from earlier this year. As we projected last quarter, we did not expect any rapid economic recovery in H2 2021, however, we continued to witness a steady increase in economic activities. During the last quarter of 2021 Power Systems Research expects this trend to remain in place.
Government support in the form of fiscal policies and public health management are driving the economic rebound and largely explain variations in performance across countries. With the targeted monetary support to consumers and certain industries, the demand for products and services globally is coming back, and we expect this trend to carry over into Q1 2022.
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