U.S. Economic Downturn this Year or Next?

News: Economics

2023-08-20

U.S. Economic Downturn this Year or Next?

Jim Downey

SUMMARY. As we are halfway through 2023, there is more uncertainty with the economy than earlier in the year. The general consensus is there will be a recession coming soon in the United States, and now it is just a matter of whether this will happen later in 2023 or the first of part of 2024.

The latter may be more assumed recently. The stock market has not fallen, and the US economy has not entered a recession this year, 2023. Some of the factors that have prevented this are market investors being enthusiastic over AI (Artificial Intelligence) potential, the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate increases, and the slowdown of inflation. So seemingly the pause button has been hit on recession scenarios.

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2023-07-27

Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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2023-04-18

Group Beneteau Forecasts 10% Growth in 2023

EUROPEAN REPORT 
Natasa Mulahalilovic
Natasa Mulahalilovic

Groupe Beneteau, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of pleasure boats and mobile homes, posted revenue of USD 1.6 million (1.508,1 million EUR) for 2022. The boat division generated USD1.3 million (1.250,9 million EUR), 83% of the group’s total revenue.

The Group order books are full for this year. The forecast is for 10% growth compared to revenues achieved in 2022. Last year, revenues by market were at 613.20 million EUR for Europe, 424.4 million EUR for North America and 135.9 million EUR for other regions.

The group plans to launch 13 models in 2023, of which five will be new models of dayboats, four models of sailing yachts, two models of sail catamarans and two models of power catamarans. 

The boat division revenues increased 19.7% compared to 2021. The motorboats division contributed 58% of the total and the sailing division added 42%. The best-selling boats are the motor dayboats in size up to 8 meters followed by the sailing multihulls over 10 meters.

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2023-03-26

Hitachi Construction Machinery Raises Product Prices

JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Komatsu will continue to raise prices substantially in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. This will be at the same level as the current fiscal year. The impact of price increases on consolidated operating income is estimated to be in the range of 100 billion yen.

This is approximately 20% of operating income for this fiscal year. Although the impact of high raw material prices will lessen in the next fiscal year, there are concerns about an economic slowdown. While the benefits of the yen’s depreciation will diminish, they will build a profitable structure to further increase the operating profit margin from less than 13% in the current fiscal year.

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2023-02-17

Thailand Kubota Takes Measures To Secure Manpower

SOUTHEAST ASIA: THAI REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

In Thailand, one of the most industrialized countries in Southeast Asia, automation is accelerating in the manufacturing industry as the working population tapers off. Workers’ attitudes are changing, and fewer Southeast Asians are migrating to Japan. Business models based on cheap labor are no longer viable in Asia.

When I visited the Amata City plant of Siam Kubota, a locally incorporated subsidiary of agricultural machinery giant Kubota Corporation, I saw countless automated guided vehicles (AGVs) running in every direction.

Sales of tractors and combine harvesters are booming, thanks in part to the government’s special demand for subsidized farm machinery for those who lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 disaster and are now returning to their hometowns to start farming. The fruits of this policy are being returned in the form of year-end bonuses, and Siam Kubota is not suffering from a labor shortage at this time.

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2023-01-22

U.S. Economy Faces Multiple Problems

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many of the biggest challenges facing the U.S. economy in 2022 are continuing into 2023. These problems include supply chain disruptions, the migration of production and use of internal combustion engines to alternative drive types, uncertainty of inflation and rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine.

There were also positives which came out of 2022, including a return to more face-to-face business transactions and meetings. Trade shows made a big comeback in 2022, and this trend will continue in 2023 as the huge CONEXPO-CON/AGG will be held in March in Las Vegas.

The push towards electrification is not all negative either. Innovation and action around alternative drive types will continue to grow.

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2022-12-14

China 2023 EV Sales To Grow To 8.4 Million Units

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

The development trend for the new energy vehicle (EVs) market remained positive through 2022. In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 598,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 58.2%. From January to November, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5.03 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 100.1%.

As for December, the Passenger Transport Federation believes that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 12,600 RMB this year, which is much more than the decline of 5000 RMB in the previous two years. In addition, some vehicle enterprises have announced a price increase for next year, which may promote strong pre-buying of new energy vehicles at the end of the year and boost sales.

This year, the new energy vehicle market is expected to achieve the annual sales of 6.5 million vehicles.

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2022-09-29

Can EV Enthusiasm Trigger Global Growth?

Consumer adoption of EVs has gathered momentum this year, spurred by higher global oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine war has made EVs suddenly more appealing to many car buyers, accelerating adoption globally. The higher oil prices are driving EVs closer to cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s most recent Electric Vehicles Outlook 2022 report, it projected EV sales to hit 20.6 million units by 2025.

On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon Musk admitted, “We do not have a demand problem but a production problem.” Other car manufacturers such as Ford, for instance, says it can build its F150 Lightning and the Mustang Mach E fast enough to keep up with demand

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2022-09-28

South Korea Sees First Trade Deficit with China in 28 Years

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

The economic relationship between China and the ROK has reached a turning point. According to statistics from the ROK, for the first time in 28 years, the ROK has a trade deficit with China. China has been the best customer of the export driven ROK economy, and this is causing concern in the ROK. At the same time, Chinese companies are intensifying their takeover of Korean companies, and in response to the escalation of the U.S.-China conflict, they have begun to pursue a strategy of using Korea as a foothold to capture the U.S. market.

A management official at South Korea’s Hyundai Motor’s joint venture plant in Chongqing, China, said that the passenger car assembly plant is idle and that negotiations are underway to sell it to a Chinese company. Hyundai Motor started operations in Chongqing in 2017, including an assembly plant with an annual production capacity of 300,000 units, but sales slumped due to the rise of Chinese automakers. At one point, the company occupied second place with a market share of nearly 10%, but recently it has fallen below 2% and slumped to 10th place.

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2022-08-20

Hino Motors’ Engine Fraud Covers 560,000 vehicles

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hino Motors has announced that the falsification of diesel engine emission values, which was previously announced in March, had been taking place since at least 2003 or earlier. The company had previously stated that the fraud began in the fall of 2016. In 2016, the company also revealed that it had falsely reported to the MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in response to its request for a fact-finding survey on exhaust gas and fuel efficiency tests.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Although I do not wish to make such negativity a theme, I cannot overlook this issue. The impact on the industry of the fraud at Hino, which has the top share of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector in Japan, is significant. Isuzu has suspended shipments of four bus models that use Hino engines. Not limited to the automotive field, Tadano cranes, Kobelco hydraulic excavators, Hitachi Construction Machinery wheel loaders, and Kato rough terrain cranes have also been forced to suspend shipments after the problem came to light.

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