The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020

1. INTRODUCTION

The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.

This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.

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Higher Octane Gasoline Offered in Brazil

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

The new specs as per ANP 087/20 resolution determines the minimum density of 715 kg/m3 and minimum octanes of 92 RON. In January 2022, it will be 93 RON. The Ethanol mix was kept in 27% for regular gasoline and 25% for premium gasolines.

Source: UOL     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With the use of Ethanol in the mix, Brazil gasoline specs get closer to Europe and USA. The goal is to improve the consumption 6% and reduce failures in engines. This may reduce barriers for imported engines and reduce the cost of “tropicalization” of engines.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

The Green Future Has Big Oil’s Backing

BP’s action might be a pivotal moment where the green revolution stops being something, we are all dragged into and starts being an opportunity for the most responsive and agile innovators to rebrand themselves and capture new markets.  

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

For many people, the moment when COVID-19 became real was when the NBA announced the cancellation of the rest of its season. I was sitting at the counter of the coffee shop in the lobby of my Las Vegas hotel at CON-EXPO. My colleagues and I had been talking for a couple days about the odds of catching the virus at the show, but we all had made the decision that we would be ok attending.

And then we saw that announcement. By the end of the day, we had all decided to go home as soon as possible, and the show had announced it was ending a day early. As a 26-year-old who just caught the tail end of the millennial generation, there haven’t been a lot of things in my memory where I can look back and say, in the moment, it felt like things were different now. I was too young to remember 9/11, and I wasn’t politically engaged enough to understand what the first African-American president meant historically. But this morning as I was catching up on the news and thinking about the subject of this article, I read that BP had made an announcement about a major environmental initiative, and as I read it, I had a feeling like at that coffee bar in Las Vegas.

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Taiwan Audi Teams with Noodoe To Create Pure Electric Living Space

To continue to promote the deployment of electric vehicles in Taiwan, Taiwan Audi officially entered the pure electric vehicle market at the end of 2019 and launched the “E-tron Future” reservation project.

Erik Martin
Erik Martin

To meet the pure electric future, Taiwan Audi has joined hands with strategic partner Noodoe to accelerate the deployment of Taiwan’s charging network. Evaluating home charging station installation and a cloud-based charging operating system paired with Taiwan Audi’s charging solution aims to realize a pure electric mobile life.

From north to south, Taiwan spans only about 500 kilometers.  At the same time, the main population centers are concentrated in the seven largest metropolitan areas. These cities–while clearly defined–are connected by a comprehensive road network that provides excellent advantages in the development of electric vehicles.

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Russian Government To Pay 60% of Expenses for Switching Vehicles to NG

The Russian government subsidies now will cover 60% of individuals’ and small business’ expenses for switching vehicles from gasoline to NG fuel. That’s up from 30%.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The minister of Power Industry has offered to increase subsidies for switching vehicles belonging to individuals and small business two times – from 30% to 60%. Another 30% will be paid by Gazprom at the expenses of its marketing program. Therefore, vehicle owners should pay only 10% of the cost to switch.

The government will assign US$ 0.7 billion (50 billion Rubles) for development of the NG fuel industry during the period 2020-2024. This includes an annual assignment of 3.5 billion rubles for gas fuel stations and 0.7 billion rubles for fleet modification.

There are 484 gas stations in Russia (May 2020), 329 of them belong to Gazprom. In 2019, the fuel sales on gas stations increased 30%.     Read The Article

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Hyundai Exports Fuel Cell Trucks To Europe

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor announced on July 6 that it has begun exporting commercial hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) to Europe. The company shipped 10 trucks to Switzerland, and it plans to export 1,600 units by 2025 using a long-term lease contract system.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hyundai has set up a joint venture company to build a hydrogen infrastructure in Switzerland; it also plans to develop hydrogen stations and other infrastructure in cooperation with a local company. They plan to use Switzerland as a base for expanding their exports throughout Europe.

The South Korean government is also focusing on the spread of the hydrogen-based society and will appeal to the governments of other countries. The trucks exported this time will be used by the food distribution industry. The route for these trucks is fixed, making it easy to set up the infrastructure for refueling.

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Japan: Toyota, Nissan and Honda Research e-Fuel as New Fuel

Toyota, Nissan, and Honda each are preparing for stricter environmental regulations in 2030 by focusing on research and development of e-fuel, a synthetic liquid fuel made from carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H2).

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

e-Fuel is a liquid hydrocarbon chain fuel made from the catalytic synthesis of H2 and CO2 from the electrolysis of water.

Generated from renewable energy sources, they are “carbon neutral,” which means they emit and absorb the same amount of CO2. The e-fuel can be mixed with gasoline or diesel fuel.

The three Japanese companies each have begun researching efficient synthesis and use methods and business models. The reason for researching e-fuel is that, in addition to complying with regulations, the degree of penetration of e-fuel will have a significant impact on the ratio of EV and HEV sales.

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Trucking News: Ask the Expert

The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles

During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels.  To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging.  The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.

Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles.  These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.

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On-Highway Batteries Serve as Emergency Backup Power

Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.

EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.

Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.

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Daimler Pursues Fuel Cells on Multiple Fronts

In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.

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