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COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
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DATAPOINT: US Lawn & Garden Tractors, 2020 Forecast: 681,500 Units
681,500 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Lawn & Garden Tractors to be produced in the United States in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 38% of total units produced, Husqvarna leads in production of Lawn & Garden Tractors in North America. In second position, with combined plant totals, is MTD with 33%; third, also with combined plant totals, is Deere & Co. with 24%.
Exports: Up to 25% worldwide.
Trends: In 2019, production of Lawn & Garden Tractors in North America (US) increased nearly 8%, but production is expected to drop 16% in 2020. The gain in 2019 was the result of increased demand for new fuel-efficient models combined with the demand for new equipment. Latest models offer a variety of features for home buyers based on yard size (acreage). Entry-level lawn riders are suited for 1.5 acres or less and usually have 1-cylinder engines.
Mid-grade riders have twin cylinder engines with high HP’s that work well in large cutting areas. The forecasted decline is caused by the temporary lull in production of the Craftsman line along with unfavorable mowing conditions (wet spring) and the saturation of new products in the market.
COVID-19 may play a factor in the manufacturing decrease because of plant shutdowns, however production can easily ramp up to meet demand for these seasonal items. Production is expected increase up to 5% by 2025; lifespan of this product is about 10 years. PSR
Carol Turner Is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, Power Systems Research
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Samuel Libaire Wins Power Systems Research $2,500 Eagan Scholarship
Samuel Libaire, a senior at Eagan High School, Eagan, Minnesota, has received the 2020 Power Systems Research $2,500 academic scholarship.
He will use the scholarship to study Computer Science at Vanderbilt University.
“My favorite subject is computer science,” says Samuel. “It is one of the only subjects that can have multiple solutions to a single problem while also proving instantly that some don’t work. In many sciences, theories are never 100% true, but in computer science, a program either works perfectly or it simply doesn’t.”
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Pandemic Disruptions Hinder Auto Battery Adoption
My other article in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News describes how home battery systems, even though they are not themselves viable products for most consumers, still benefit from a virtuous cycle of product improvement and investment because of the relative success of battery-powered vehicles and other battery-powered products.
Tyler Wiegert But the COVID-19 pandemic has not missed those drivers. Venture Beat magazine reports that investors are largely avoiding lithium this year, preferring to safeguard cash until the economy starts to improve. The delay in funding could have several knock-on effects.
One is consolidation in the industry. Ganfeng Lithium is picking up a lithium project from Lithium Americas, a smaller operation. Fewer, larger players in the market later on might have price consequences for lithium adoption after the economy improves and demand for those goods increases.
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The Lithium Revolution Has Yet To Come Home
This article is being written the week after SpaceX successfully brought two astronauts to the International Space Station, which has been celebrated across the country as a great achievement for the United States Space program.I certainly share the feeling that it is good to be back in space, but there is also this lingering feeling that 50 years after we landed on the moon, we might be somewhere further along than just getting back into space on American-piloted rockets.
Tyler Wiegert Combining that with a pandemic that has brought us to a public health and economic situation more appropriate for the early 20th century than the early 21st century, and protests over racial inequality issues that many hoped we’d be further along with 60 years after the Civil Rights movement, it feels appropriate to reflect on the phenomenon of future-hype.
The blog article Why Have Home Battery Forecasts Been Staggeringly Wrong for Years? examines the future-hype specifically around home battery systems. Specifically, why were predictions made only four years ago, not 50 or 60 or 100 years ago, so wrong about where home battery systems would be now?
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COVID-19 Webinar Scheduled With HDMA
Power Systems Research will work with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA.org) to present a one-hour webinar examining the impact of COVID-19 on the industrial segments of Agricultural and Construction in North America.
The webinar will be presented Wednesday, June 17. Watch hdma.org and powersys.com for details. PSR
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DATAPOINT: NA Personal Watercraft (PWC) 2020 Forecast: 88,300 Units
The 88,300 units is the estimate by Power Research of the number of Personal Watercraft (PWC) to be produced in North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States) in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
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COVID-19 Cuts Results at Harley-Davidson, Polaris
Harley-Davidson Q1 2020 Sales Plunge 15.5%
Harley-Davidson said US sales were up 6.6% in the quarter before the pandemic ground the economy to a halt in mid-March. But sales wound up plunging 15.5% in America compared to a year ago and 20.7% internationally. Overall revenue slipped 8% from last year’s first quarter.
For the quarter, Harley-Davidson posted earnings of $69.7 million compared with $127.9 million in the same period a year ago.
Michael Aistrup Harley-Davidson’s share in the U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market share was down 2.2 percentage points, to 48.9% and the company’s share of the heavyweight motorcycle market in Europe was 7.6% in the first quarter.
In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Harley has reduced planned capital spending, frozen hiring, temporarily reduced salaries, eliminated merit increases for employees in 2020 and changed the timing of new product launches in order to preserve $250 million in 2020.
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A New Class of Hybrids
The word “hybrid” in the power generation universe has generally been understood to mean a fossil-fuel engine supplemented by another power source, usually a renewable.
Tyler Wiegert Then, the word grew to include vehicles and equipment that ran primarily on battery power but could be switched to a smaller engine that would recharge the battery while it ran.
Now, we are entering a time when “hybrid” includes drive systems that are primarily renewable-based and supplemented by an additional renewable system.
In this sphere, alternative power has primarily meant batteries and hydrogen fuel cells; one of the major impediments to wide adoption has always been range.
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DataPoint: 2020 Production Estimate, NA Skid Steer Loaders
105,900 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Skid Steer Loaders to be produced in North America (Canada and the United States) in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 35% of total units produced, Bobcat leads in production of Skid Steer Loaders in North America. In second and third positions are Case New Holland and Caterpillar with 22.5% and 14.5%, respectively.
Exports: Collectively, up to 30% worldwide.
Trends: Production of skid steer loaders in North America increased 3% in 2019 over 2018. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, production was expected to remain flat with a nominal decrease of ½% in 2020. This decline will be more severe with plant shutdowns etc., due to current virus concerns. Overall, loader production could plummet up to 40% this year.
As the construction industry recovers, construction will continue to be a key driver in overall industry growth. Flat sales can be attributed to the American agriculture industry that is sluggish (still battling commodity prices) that accounts for 29% of all skid steer usage in the market today. Expect production of Skid Steer Loaders in North America to increase up to 5% over the next 3-5 years. PSR
Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations
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