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Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s
Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News.
Yosyf Sheremeta (April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback. In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.
There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021. Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond.
Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.
Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.
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DATAPOINT: 2021 US ATV Production, 301,000 Units
301,000 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of ATVs to be produced in Mexico and the U.S. in 2021.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 28% of total units produced, Polaris Industries leads in production four-wheeled ATVs in North America. In second and third positions are Honda and Yamaha Motor with 22% and 19%, respectively.
Exports: Up to45% of Mexico’s ATV production is exported worldwide. That compares to about 30% of the US production that is exported.
Trends: Production of ATVs decreased 18% in 2020 from the 337,700 units produced in 2019. Even though production is expected to increase in 2021 by about 9% over the 2020 production of 275,700 units, it will still trail 2019 production by more than 36,000 units.
The decrease in 2020 was caused by COVID-19, excess inventories, uncertain economic conditions and the growing popularity of side x side units (UTVs). Manufacturers have discontinued less popular models and continue to shift production to UTVs.
The outlook for ATV sales is positive. According to investor relations representatives at Polaris, Yamaha and Arctic Cat, consumer discretionary spending is on the increase and gasoline prices are favorable.
Production is expected to increase by as much as 10% by 2025, driven by positive economic factors, pent-up demand caused by COVID, and the introduction of innovative products and technologies, including a shift to electric vehicles. PSR
Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations at Power Systems Research
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PSR Partners With HDMA In Webinar
Current and Future Supply Chain Concerns For Medium and Heavy Vehicles Will Be Discussed
Erik Martin 
Chris Fisher Power Systems Research will produce a one-hour webinar with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) discussing current and future supply chain concerns, especially as they affect Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles.
When? Wednesday, April 21, 2021 from 1:00 – 2:00 pm ETWhat? Future areas of supply chain concerns, secondary effects of logistic and shipping issues, and current…
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DATAPOINT: Global Snowmobiles, 2021 Production, 107,250 Units
107,250 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Snowmobiles to be produced in Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan, and the U.S. in 2021.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 52% of total units produced, Bombardier Recreational Products (BRP) leads in production of Snowmobiles. In second position is Polaris Industries with 19%. Arctic Cat is third with 17%.
Trends: Production of snowmobiles decreased nearly 19% in 2020 from 2019. Despite the COVID-19 shutdowns at Arctic Cat/Textron and Polaris, production was back on track for the winter ’21 season.
Despite the COVID-19-related production problems, 2021 will see the best year-to-year growth in 25 years, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association (ISMA). Expect snowmobile production to gain 16% in 2021 over that of 2020.
The demand for snowmobiles is skyrocketing. Recreationalists are choosing snowmobiling as a new hobby since many other activities have been shut down by COVID-19 restrictions.
The decline in 2020 was attributed to the lack of snowfall in many key riding areas worldwide, especially during the months from January – March. Despite weather related issues, manufacturers introduced an array of new models that will entice buyers.
Even though consumers struggle with economic difficulties and fuel prices are unstable, it appears that when it snows, powersports enthusiasts still want to play. Expect production of snowmobiles to increase an additional 10% by 2025. PSR
Carol Turner, Senior Analyst, Global Operations
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Listen To New PSR PowerTALK Podcast
Now, you can listen to the leading analysts and editors from Power Systems Research discuss the outlook for powertrain news each Tuesday by region and by targeted industry segments on PSR PowerTALK Podcast.
PSR PowerTALK podcasts include Forecasts by PSR analysts, interviews by PSR analysts with industry leaders and production reports on specific applications produced by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst at Power Systems Research.
You can listen to the PowerTALK podcasts on your favorite podcast provider…
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NA Electric Motorcycle Segment Growing
Michael Aistrup Motorcycling in America is changing as industry leaders and new technology competitors are trying to attract newer/younger riders who want something different from Harley-Davidson’s big cruisers or screaming Japanese and European performance bikes.
The changes are in response to younger riders who are attracted to the efficiency and fun of two-wheel travel associated with e-motorcycles, while older riders are losing interest, or simply becoming unable to ride any longer.
At present, e-motorcycles remain a niche market. Riders are typically city dwellers in their early 40s–slightly younger than the average age of a U.S. motorcycle rider, which is 47, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council’s U.S. Motorcycle Owner Survey — and uses the bike to commute.
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Truck News: Ask The Expert
Chris Fisher What changes do you see in the PSR Truck Production Index in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2020?
Overall, we are seeing stronger momentum for commercial truck orders and sales which bode well for production in Q1 2021.
Supply chain issues will impact short term production as companies are still having difficulty with staffing numbers and various virus protocols that disrupt production. These problems are expected to continue throughout at least the first half of the year.
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UAZ To Sell its Patriot SUV in USA Under the Brand Name “Bremach Taos”
Maxim Sakov UAZ plans to sell is Patriot SUV under the Bremach Taos brand in the US. It will be sold by a branch of Italian Company Bremach, which specializes in AWD special cars. Patriot is being upgraded to meet the standards required on US public roads.
Assembly is planned to be performed in California. The base cost of the SUV is expected to be about US$ 26,000. US modifications of the car will include an automatic transmission and 4-cylinder of 2.7 liter and 150hp. It will have 5-year general warranty and 10-year warranty on engine.
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DATAPOINT: NA Dumpers/Tenders, 2020 Production, 1,559 Units
The 1,559 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Dumpers/Tenders to be produced in the U.S. in 2020.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: With 62.5% of total units produced, Country Home Products leads in production of Dumpers/Tenders in North America. In second position…
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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected
Yosyf Sheremeta SUMMARY. In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize. Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.
However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months. Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth. Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years. Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed. However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.
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