We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.
Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment. Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.
The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology. Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway. It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.
“China has the largest automobile production in the world, the most complete industrial foundation, supply chain foundation, talent foundation and market foundation,” said Li Bin, chairman of Weilai automobile.
These factors provide China with a significant advantage in developing intelligent EVs, he said “In fact, if we can have the advantages of these four aspects at the same time, China is the only one in the world,” he added.
The penetration rate of new energy has exceeded 10% in 2021. From the trend, this target will exceed 20% in 2025. China’s penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles in 2030 will exceed 90% in new car sales. In recent years, with the accelerated popularization of intelligent electric vehicles, the automotive industry will once again become the commanding height of scientific and technological innovation.
PSR Analysis: Today, new bus procurement is fully electrified. Buses have fixed routes, and the operation range is relatively stable. At the end of 2020, all buses in key regions and major cities have been replaced with new energy. The trend of bus electrification will continue to be promoted nationwide and gradually electric buses will replace diesel vehicles.
Considering that the running distance and working environment are relatively controllable, the market promotion of oil and electricity price difference, and the gradual completion of bus electrification, taxis will also accelerate electrification.
The second step is to accelerate the electrification of trucks such as urban logistics, environmental sanitation and muck trucks. The State Council proposes to promote green and low-carbon means of transportation, port and airport services, urban logistics distribution and postal express to give priority to the use of new energy or clean energy and strengthen the charging and switching facilities of new energy vehicles.
The penetration rate of private car electrification will also continue to increase. According to the current situation, electric vehicles can replace unified fuel vehicles in terms of price and mileage around 2025. At the same time, with the promotion of electrification in the field of public transport and trucks, driving the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the electrification of private cars will proceed more smoothly. PSR
Jack Hao is Senior Research Manager – China, for Power Systems Research
The Brazil Government has published a law starting the Truck and Buses Scrappage Policy, aiming to renew fleets, increase productivity and efficiency, reduce emissions and improve safety. Depending on the effectiveness of the program, it may affect the MHV market. See complete article translated in our webpage and the original from Automotive Business.
PSR Analysis: The launch of the Renovar program is a positive sign on the path of improving safety, logistics efficiency and environmental impact for Brazil, with genuine and relevant objectives.
Because it is a voluntary program, operating in phases, with regulations and parameters yet to be defined, it is too early to project the effectiveness and impact on the vehicle market.
We believe that Brazil still needs broader legislation for a long-term program with a gradual and geographically differentiated process to restrict the movement of older, less safe trucks and buses with lower efficiency and higher emission levels. Fleet owners, autonomous carriers, OEMs and the entire production chain need predictability for long-term planning to prepare for and assure feasibility for a broad and scheduled fleet renewal. PSR
By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
Major auto players in India like Tata Motors, MG Motors and Hyundai have already announced their investment plans in the electric vehicles sector, there wasn’t any formal announcement from Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest automaker. But now, the penny has dropped.
Suzuki Motor, parent of Maruti Suzuki, says it has signed a Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with the Gujarat State government, and plans to invest Rs 10,440 crore in there to build an EV and battery factory. The MoU was signed at the India-Japan Economic Forum held in New Delhi.
The May 2022 issue of PowerTALK News features articles on the NA production of Hydraulic Power Units, development of bio-fuels in Europe and the successful sales effort of Hyundai EVs at the Indonesia Auto Show.
Inside:
DataPoint: NA Hydraulic Power Units
Europe: Plant-Based Bio-fuel May Not Replace Fossil Fuels
South America:
Komatsu Announces Expansion in Brazil
Agrishow 2022 Sells US$ 5 Billion in Ag Equipment
China: Beijing Plan Calls for 100% EV Commercial Vehicles
Japan: MEGURI2040: The Fully Autonomous Ship Program
South Korea: Hyundai Sells EVs at Indonesia Auto Show
Vietnam: Dat Bike EV Motorcycle Enters SE Asia
India:
PMI Electro To Set Up EV Manufacturing Plant
Tata Motors: Electrification Is Irreversible Trend
Hyundai Motor Indonesia (HMID) said it has signed contracts for more than 800 units of the Ioniq 5 EV announced at the Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) Hybrid 2022 in Jakarta.
The company announced that it has started mass production of the Ioniq 5 and that it will begin shipping to dealers in April. The Creta SUV was the second most sold model after the Ioniq 5, with approximately 600 units sold, bringing the total number of vehicles sold to over 1,500, including EVs and gasoline-powered vehicles.
The Brazil government announced June 29 the new Safra Plan for 2022/2023 with a total of R$ 340 Billion (US$ 65 Bi) to fund business related to Agriculture, including Agricultural Machines and Trucks for product transportation. The amount is 36% higher than the previous year plan.
PSR Analysis: While the volume of funds is higher, the interest rates are also higher. In addition, the prices of agricultural supplies are higher than in the previous cycle. Agricultural Machines should maintain its high production and sales trend while Trucks should grow due to pre-buy caused by Proconve P8 (Equivalent to Euro 6) by January 2023.PSR
The commercial industry will grow with trucks and buses expected to do well. Truck sales will improve as many industries require more units as they are running at full capacity
The Indian economy managed to revive itself during the first and second COVID waves and quickly achieved a V-shaped recovery.
This year, GST is reaching high levels. GST collection has witnessed a growth of 26% YoY – YTD CY22. Furthermore, the generation of e-way bills is increasing rapidly. The generation of e-way bills is directly proportional to truck utilization and drives vehicle demand.
Adequate rainfall across the country along with the start of the long festive season will keep the demand for automobiles positive and help keep the momentum going in this segment. Additionally, normal monsoons in most parts of the country resulting in a decent agricultural harvest kept demand positive. So, automakers are focusing on building up inventory in anticipation of higher demand
The Indian economy is poised to shrug off the modest tapering of growth in Q1 2022, and aggregate demand is firm and set to expand as the festival season sets in. Hatchback cars and affordable, non-electric motorcycles and scooters are set to register bumper sales in the coming months as India gets ready to celebrate its first ‘normal’ festive season after a gap of two years. Above-normal rains, positive consumer sentiment and a generally optimistic mood are also expected to boost sales of these entry-level vehicles.
Mercedes-Benz heavy-duty truck factory in China has started mass production and its first domestic Chinese heavy-duty truck has rolled off the assembly line. The rollout reflects the Mercedes Benz truck localization project, under which Mercedes is producing heavy duty trucks built specifically for the domestic Chinese market.
The first batch of Mercedes Benz domestic heavy trucks is scheduled to be delivered to customers in early November.
In the process of localization, MB is striving to achieve a balance between high quality and cost. It is working with 150 domestic suppliers to improve manufacturing quality capability and localize the supply of more than 1500 parts. Presently, the localization rate of Mercedes Benz heavy truck Actros series exceeds 50%, and the localization rate of Actros C series is 90%.
Mercedes Benz trucks has established a Mercedes Benz business unit under the joint venture of Daimler Trucks Co., Ltd. and Foton Motor, which have a 50: 50 share ownership.
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