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2022-01-22

MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.

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Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

PSR Truck Production Index Q4 2021Download

St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

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2022-02-20

Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

Jim Downey
Jim Downey
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.    PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Scania Tests Euro VI Engine in Brazil

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT

The 13 liters with Scania Twin SCR aftertreatment developed in Sweden is tested in Brazil for the new Proconve P8 products, already in place for new models and mandatory for all models by January 2023. The homologation process at IBAMA is already advanced but may show adaption needs to Brazilian environment. This engine is part of a completely new powertrain and brakes system with higher efficiency and lower emission. The power range vary from 420 to 560 hp and it is prepared for HVO use.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The use of edge technology at Scania Trucks in Brazil is in line with the amount of exports Scania makes to Europe and to lower emission regions. The higher efficiency will bring increased sales to South America as fleet owners seek lower fuel consumption. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

PowerTALK™, March 2022

PSR-PowerTALK_March_2022Download

This issue of PowerTALK News contains several articles about the situation in Russia, including news about plant shut downs and operational adjustments by OEMs. Several EV articles, too.

Inside:

  • Medium and Heavy EV Testing
  • DataPoint: NA Dumpers/Tenders
  • Europe: Middle East Energy Show Resumes
  • South America
    • Brazil Cuts Production Taxes
    • VW Plans EV Charger Program
    • Sao Paulo EV Bus Program
  • China: 90% EV Penetration Expected
  • Japan: Sony, Honda To Develop EV SUV
  • India: Paggio Developing EV Scooter for India
  • Russia:
    • Half of Auto Plants Shut Down
    • KAMAZ Adjusts To Daimler Exit
    • CAT Plans To Stop Russia Production
    • Foreign Automakers Face Ultimatum

2022-07-20

CNG Vehicles Are Moving in Cruise Mode

INDIA REPORT 
Aditya Kondejkar

Sales of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) vehicles in India are set to scale a new peak, driven by robust double-digit expansion in 2023 demand, with lower total ownership costs decidedly tilting the scales in favor of gas-powered cars instead of those running on liquid automotive fuels.

“We are seeing excellent traction for CNG vehicles,” says Tarun Garg, Director – Sales, Services and Marketing, Hyundai Motor India. “CNG provides a very good option to customers in terms of reduced total cost of ownership. Not only is the price of CNG fuel less than petrol/diesel, the fuel efficiency, too, is relatively better and emissions are lower.”

Currently, the country has more than 4,500 operational CNG stations, compared with fewer than 1,000 in 2014. To push adoption of CNG vehicles in the personal mobility space, in 2019, the petroleum and natural gas ministry announced plans to set up more than 10,000 CNG stations over the decade. It is anticipated that the country will save approximately  Rs 2 lakh crore in oil imports if personal car users switched to CNG vehicles. Read The Article

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2022-08-20

Australian Solar Park Could Generate Hydrogen for Less Than $2/kg


Frontier Energy conducted a pre-feasibility study (PFS) at its Bristol Springs Solar project in Australia to show that it has the potential to be a low-cost green hydrogen producer, with power sourced from the company’s planned first stage 114 MW DC solar farm. The solar would power a 36.6 MW alkaline electrolyser, producing an estimated 4.4m kilograms of green hydrogen per year.

Source: PV Magazine Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With green hydrogen costs being around $3/kg to $6.5/kg, production of green hydrogen at this cost significantly boosts the use of hydrogen as a fuel for either Hydrogen ICEs or FCEVs. It also closes the price gap with dirty hydrogen which is generated using fossil fuels. Dirty hydrogen costs around $1.8 per kg, according to S&P Global.  PSR

Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Lead at Power Systems Research

Mercedes To Deliver 1000 EV Bus by 2023 to São Paulo

During the Lat.Bus show in São Paulo, the Sales Director of Mercedes, Walter Barbosa, affirmed the demand of 500 EV Bus in 2022 and 500 in 2023, but he expect no deliveries in 2022 and all delivered in 2023.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Mercedes is running against the clock to win the business in São Paulo. Although it is preferred by the public transportation companies, BYD is ahead with product already developed. Marcopolo shows as a solution with own chassis and body, but still in early stages of launch.    PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

2022-09-28

Drought Forces Power Cuts at Sichuan Factories

CHINA REPORT
Qin Fen
Qin Fen

Sichuan’s worst drought in more than a half century spurred the Chinese province to extend industrial power cuts and activate its highest emergency response, adding to manufacturers’ woes as they shut down factories in the region.

Source: Bloomberg   Read The Article                            

Xinhua News Agency   Read The Article         

Shanghai Daily   Read The Article                                   

China.org.cn       Read The Article

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2022-11-15

Powersports Market Expected To Exceed US$ 50 Billion

Power Systems Research is forecasting global revenue for the Powersports industry to grow from $31.5 billion in 2020 to US$ 50.91 billion in 2030, a CAGR of 6% over the forecasted period.

Global Powersports Market
All-Terrain Vehicles, Side-by-Side, Powerboats, Snowmobiles and Heavyweight Motorcycles

Drivers-of-Demand. There are many factors driving the global powersports market growth:

  • Increased all-terrain vehicle popularity.
    • These include the rising participation in recreational activities, like surfing, off-road driving, and snowmobiling.
    • According to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association around $36 Billion is spent directly and indirectly on snowmobiling in the US and Canada each year.
    • ATVs have lesser age restrictions, lower maintenance costs, are easier to maneuver due to low vehicle weight and are more affordable
    • Rise in use of powersports to boost adventure tourism traveling to new locations for gaining new experiences, with controlled risk components and personal challenges in wild & exotic environments.
    • People are raising the bar for racing by introducing new terrains and challenges.
    • The market in Europe is expected to showcase exponential growth backed by government policies that promote recreational and off-road leisure activities.
    • Global governmental initiatives to boost the tourism industry by assisting recreational clubs in enhancing their service offerings are creating a favorable environment for the market participating in the construction of dedicated infrastructure for recreational and amusement purposes.
  • Technological innovations have played a major role in developing vehicles.
    • New products have increased comfort, power, engineering, and safety.
    • Utility-terrain vehicles (UTVs) have improved durability and adaptability for off-road riding.
    • Growth in investments and rapid innovations in the automotive sector have resulted in improved performance of powersports vehicles. This has resulted in improved vehicle efficiency, reduced noise and higher power of vehicles. Companies are also focusing on developing electric products for quieter more powerful riding.
  • Growing consumer disposable incomes make it easier for customers to purchase leisure and recreational power equipment.
  • Data prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that outdoor recreational activities accounted for US$ 374.3 billion in 2020, which is 1.8% of the overall U.S. GPD in 2020.
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