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There seems little doubt that electric powered boats will grow as the fast-improving technology trickles down from the automotive industry, which is driving battery technology, to the marine engine industry.
Michael Aistrup
Today the electric boat has become a $4.5 billion global marine industry segment, and a report by IDTechEx shows that the market for hybrid and pure electric boats will rise significantly to over $20 billion worldwide by 2027.
Brushless permanent magnet electric motors and advances in lithium ion battery technology have allowed leaps to be made in the rush to marine electric. Lithium-ion batteries are half as heavy as lead-acid batteries and last three times as long, and advances in their effectiveness and stability have been significant.
In this episode of the PSR PowerTALK Podcast Chris Fisher, Power Systems’ Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, discusses the Q4 2020 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks.
Transcript
Welcome to PowerTALK Truck podcast February 2021. Produced by Power Systems Research, the leading supplier of global production data and forecasts to the engine power products and Components industries. Here’s today’s host, Emiliano Marzoli, Manager of Power Systems Research, European Operations.
Gas-powered engines have been the backbone of boating since the advent of the internal combustion engine, but electric-powered boats could soon be claiming a significant share of the market.
Most of the fuel used in transportation is petroleum-based, but initiatives by many governments to reduce carbon emissions and to encourage consumers to adopt eco-friendly boats and ships is expected to boost growth of the electric boat market. The electric boat industry is still in early stages of development and there is a potential for growth.
Electric boats are defined as marine vessels with electric drive as propulsion. Electric boats can be only electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, or hybrid electric.
Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.
Carlos Briganti
In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.
This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.
St. Paul, MN (July 12, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased 193.5% year-over-year (Q2 2020 to the Q2 2021), moving from 46 to 135. For the three-month period ended June 30, 2021, (Q1 2021 to Q2 2021) the TPI climbed 15.4%, increasing from 117 to 135.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index.Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and possibly into 2022.
All Regions.Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
Honda said it plans to produce a motor-driven electric motorcycle for individuals in Japan by the end of 2023. This will be the first time Honda produces a product for the public in Japan.
Overall, Honda said it plans to launch more than 10 models of electric motorcycles worldwide by 2025. Their goal is to increase overall sales, including pedal-powered and electric bicycles, mainly in China and India. The company plans to increase its sales to 3.5 million units worldwide by 2030, more than 20 times the 2021 level.
The EM1e electric scooter was unveiled March 17, 2023, in Japan. It has a cruising range of approximately 40 km and uses replaceable batteries. The price is expected to be higher than gasoline-powered scooters with a displacement of about 50 liters. The company plans to launch the moped equipped with pedals that can be pedaled with the feet, and five other motorized bicycle models in China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Japan by 2024.
Electric motorcycles face the problem that on-board batteries are expensive and production costs are more than 50% higher than those of internal combustion engine models. Honda plans to increase its global sales to 1 million units by 2026, and further to 3.5 million units by 2030. However, demand for internal combustion engines is strong in emerging countries, and Honda intends to maintain its annual production capacity of 20 million two-wheeled gasoline vehicles until 2030.
PSR Analysis: Honda is finally bringing an electric model to the consumer market. Yamaha already sells the E-Vino to individuals. Harley is spinning off its electric motorcycle division to attract investment, and India’s Hero will release its VIDA electric motorcycle in 2022 and is working with a U.S. company to develop new products.
All companies are very ambitious about electric motorcycles, but there are still many challenges to be overcome before they become widespread. As a first mover example, Taiwan’s Gogoro is doing well by developing a network of battery exchange stations. Honda’s EM1e is equipped with a single replaceable battery, and by taking the battery pack home after use and recharging it at a power outlet at home, the vehicle can start running the next day with a fully charged battery.
The handle makes the battery look easy to carry, but at 10.3 kg, it may be difficult for women to accept it. The spread of battery exchange station networks like those in Taiwan has just begun in Japan, and charging stations in urban areas are still in their infancy. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research
The Hyundai Motor Group has announced its “Hydrogen Vision 2040,” which states that 2040 will be the first year of the popularization of hydrogen energy. The company plans to launch new models of all commercial vehicles, including heavy-duty trucks and buses, with hydrogen-electric and electric vehicles. The goal is to reduce the price of hydrogen-electric vehicles to the level of general electric vehicles by 2030 by developing a next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system that is inexpensive and has good performance.
The Hyundai Motor Group will not launch any new commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the future. It plans to mass-produce hydrogen-electric trucks in the country in the first half of next year and plans to apply hydrogen fuel cells to all of its commercial vehicle lineup by 2028.
Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.
Lorena Violante
ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.
The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.
During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.
Chris Fisher
Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.
According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).
Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.
Walking CONEXPO 2023, the giant international construction show in Las Vegas this month, it was obvious that OEMs are devoting huge amounts of resources to developing alternative power sources for their compact equipment.
Hydrogen powered units and battery packs were common and new products powered by alternative energy sources were popular with attendees. New technology was the name of the game at this year’s show.
However, there were several prototypes that were built only for the show, according to some exhibitors, and were not likely to be put into mass production anytime soon. In fact, one manufacturer told us, “This was manufactured for the purpose of the exhibition and is not intended for mass production.”
Toyota reportedly has partnered with China’s BYD to develop an affordable electric car to launch next year. The Japanese automaker has widely been recognized as a laggard in the transition to electric vehicles. Years of betting on hydrogen fuel cells and hybrid vehicles has put Toyota behind on battery-electric vehicles.
Reuters reports Toyota is planning to release a “small and affordable electric sedan” in China next year:
The electric vehicle is reportedly going to be powered by BYD’s blade battery cells with LFP chemistry. LFP chemistry has improved enough in recent years that it is moving from mainly being used in electric buses to now electric cars. BYD’s blade battery has attracted a lot of attention – even from Tesla, according to reports coming out of China. A Toyota source talking to Reuters said that it is what is enabling the automaker to produce its first affordable all-electric car:
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