North American Economic Outlook – April 2021

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Dir. of Prod. Mgt. & Customer Experience, discusses why the North American economy could post record growth of more than 6% in 2021.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3G06suFSJDqQvs9LThYhrI?si=RamKZMRqQx2oSrjNYUIePw

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today, we’ll discuss the economic outlook for North America. This forecast has been developed by Yosyf Sheremeta, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience at Power Systems Research. Yosyf provides our clients with economic and production forecasts each quarter. Thanks for joining us today Yosyf.

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DATAPOINT: Global Snowmobiles, 2021 Production, 107,250 Units

107,250 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Snowmobiles to be produced in Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan, and the U.S. in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

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DATAPOINT: 2021 US ATV Production, 301,000 Units

301,000 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of ATVs to be produced in Mexico and the U.S. in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With 28% of total units produced, Polaris Industries leads in production four-wheeled ATVs in North America.  In second and third positions are Honda and Yamaha Motor with 22% and 19%, respectively.

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DATAPOINT: NA ATV 2023 Production

288,000 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of ATVs to be produced in North America in 2023.

ATV is a short term for All Terrain Vehicle. It commonly has 4 wheels and is designed to be driven off road. It seats one person, or sometimes two, one in front of the other.

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Hyundai Group Seals Doosan Infracore Deal

Media outlets in Korea are reporting that Hyundai Heavy Industries is to acquire a 34.97% share in Doosan Infracore from Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction for €630 million (Korean Won 850 billion). Doosan Infracore is the heavy construction division of the Seoul-headquartered Doosan Group.

The transaction does not include Doosan Bobcat, which accounted for 57% of Infracore’s 2019 revenues. The deal will mean that Hyundai will own Hyundai Construction Equipment as well as the Doosan Infracore construction equipment business. Regulatory authorities in South Korea and other countries including China must approve the acquisition; plans call for completion of the acquisition by the third quarter of 2021.

Source: International Construction.com

PSR Analysis: This appears to be a strategy by Hyundai Heavy Industries to gain economies of scale by bringing Hyundai Construction Machinery and Doosan Infracore into the fold, and to expand its market share, especially in the Chinese market.

Hyundai Heavy Industries has positioned the construction machinery division as its core business, the third pillar after shipbuilding and plants. Demand for construction machinery is strong in China, India, and Southeast Asia, and the company is hastening its overseas expansion by expanding its scale through acquisitions in the same industry. Chinese companies such as XCMG and Sany are growing rapidly, supported by domestic demand. Hyundai Heavy Industries seems to have decided that deepening its cultivation of the Chinese market through the acquisition of Doosan’s business is essential for its survival.

On the other hand, Doosan Heavy Industries has been in the red for six consecutive fiscal years through 2019, as its mainstay heavy electric machinery division has been underperforming due to the government’s policy of freezing nuclear power plants. While receiving support from government-affiliated financial institutions, the company has been selling off its non-core businesses in order to rebuild its business. So far, the company has sold off businesses including construction companies, real estate, and hydraulic equipment. Once this sale is completed, the company is expected to be able to achieve a certain degree of financial improvement. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

PowerTALK, March 2019

Forklift Production Climbs in 2019

Production of Rough Terrain Forklifts in the U.S. this year is expected to be about 14,400 units, according to Carol Turner, PSR Senior Analyst, Global Operations. Her report is one of the Top Stories in the March 2019 issue of the PSR PowerTALK newsletter.

Other stories include a report on the 2019 Moscow Boat Show, a report on Q4 2018 gen-set sales in North America as part of PSR’s quarterly PowerTRACKER proprietary survey, plus stories from Asia, India, South America and Europe.

TOP STORIES

  • Rough Terrain Forklifts
  • EGSA Conference Report
  • NA Gen-Set Sales
  • Argentina LV Production Drops
  • Columbia LV Sales Forecast
  • China Boosts Methanol Use
  • Deutz Posts Strong Earnings
  • Kawasaki Completes India Plant
  • Doosan Wins Contracts
  • Indonesia Backs EVs
  • India Plans Tariffs
  • India Car Sales Decline
  • Moscow Boat Show Report
  • Russia Electric Car Market
  • Japanese Trucks in Moscow

2020 NA Utility Vehicle Production: 436,700

This article first appeared in the March 2020 issue of PowerTALK™ News

This is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Utility Vehicles to be produced in North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States) in 2020.

DataPoint

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With combined plant totals of 32%, Polaris leads in production of utility vehicles in North America. Polaris has plants in Mexico and the US. In second position is Honda with 13%, followed by Deere with 12%.

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Doosan To Produce Hydrogen from Waste Plastic

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction (DHIC) announced on May 6 that it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Libotec, which has a continuous pyrolysis technology for waste plastics, to develop hydrogen production technology using waste plastics.

Libotec will produce gas from waste plastic through continuous pyrolysis, while Doosan Heavy Industries will be in charge of developing equipment to reform the pyrolyzed gas into hydrogen and building the plant. Doosan Heavy Industries has developed a hydrogen reformer capable of producing about 300 kilograms of hydrogen per day, which will be installed and operated at Libotec’s plant.  The company plans to conduct demonstrations and commercialize a technology that can produce more than three tons of hydrogen per day from waste plastic.

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Strong Growth Will Continue into 2022-23

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

The third quarter of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery in North America.  Despite this strong economic recovery, many existing and new challenges developed.  Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, shortages within semiconductor products and new virus re-problems, labor market issues (shortages across service industry as well as skilled labor)- have contributed to slower growth in Q3 2021 than previously expected. 

With the help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy is showing a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, it is on a positive trajectory to continue to grow in the next few years.  There are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and we called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

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Scania, VW and Volvo Show Euro VI Lineup

Three OEMs have announced new fuel efficient products.

Scania has announced an 8% fuel consumption improvement with Super 13 liters engines and promises 50% maintenance stops reduction. Volvo has announced a new Euro VI line with Volvo Engine produced in Brazil, replacing MWM on the VM platform. VW fuel consumption improvement is in the 5% range and the company reports 4,000 units Euro VI sold in 2022 already.

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