Global ICE Industry Cliff Is Here

This article includes an important graph showing vehicle production numbers between 2015 and 2026, (projected for 2023–2026) which are based on historic BEV growth data and trends. Hybrids are lumped in with ICE cars and are shown as a preference over full BEVs which is clear in the data.

The chart shows that the overall auto industry has declined from its peak in 2017–due to the pandemic and chip shortage–before it started to recover in 2021. This chart/model is conservative in predicting industry growth at 1.6% y/y going forward and BEV growth at 50% for 2023 (average BEV growth was 57% for the past 7 years)

Read More»

Honda Plans Personal Electric Motorcycles

JAPAN REPORT

Honda said it plans to produce a motor-driven electric motorcycle for individuals in Japan by the end of 2023. This will be the first time Honda produces a product for the public in Japan.

Overall, Honda said it plans to launch more than 10 models of electric motorcycles worldwide by 2025. Their goal is to increase overall sales, including pedal-powered and electric bicycles, mainly in China and India. The company plans to increase its sales to 3.5 million units worldwide by 2030, more than 20 times the 2021 level.

The EM1e electric scooter was unveiled March 17, 2023, in Japan. It has a cruising range of approximately 40 km and uses replaceable batteries. The price is expected to be higher than gasoline-powered scooters with a displacement of about 50 liters. The company plans to launch the moped equipped with pedals that can be pedaled with the feet, and five other motorized bicycle models in China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Japan by 2024.

Electric motorcycles face the problem that on-board batteries are expensive and production costs are more than 50% higher than those of internal combustion engine models. Honda plans to increase its global sales to 1 million units by 2026, and further to 3.5 million units by 2030. However, demand for internal combustion engines is strong in emerging countries, and Honda intends to maintain its annual production capacity of 20 million two-wheeled gasoline vehicles until 2030.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Honda is finally bringing an electric model to the consumer market. Yamaha already sells the E-Vino to individuals. Harley is spinning off its electric motorcycle division to attract investment, and India’s Hero will release its VIDA electric motorcycle in 2022 and is working with a U.S. company to develop new products.

All companies are very ambitious about electric motorcycles, but there are still many challenges to be overcome before they become widespread. As a first mover example, Taiwan’s Gogoro is doing well by developing a network of battery exchange stations. Honda’s EM1e is equipped with a single replaceable battery, and by taking the battery pack home after use and recharging it at a power outlet at home, the vehicle can start running the next day with a fully charged battery.

The handle makes the battery look easy to carry, but at 10.3 kg, it may be difficult for women to accept it. The spread of battery exchange station networks like those in Taiwan has just begun in Japan, and charging stations in urban areas are still in their infancy. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research

Vale Increases Use of BE Locomotives in Brazil

As part of the strategy of accelerating the use of technologies that use renewable sources, Vale received at the end of March its second 100% electric locomotive, powered by battery. Manufactured in China by CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive (CRRC ZELC), the equipment will initially operate in the maneuvering yard of the Ponta da Madeira Terminal in São Luís (MA). Its batteries, made of lithium, have a storage capacity of 1000 kWh, with autonomy to operate up to 10 hours without stops for recharging.

CRRC’s locomotive is part of Vale’s strategy to electrify its mine and rail equipment. The two areas account for 25% of the company’s direct carbon emissions, the so-called scope 1. In 2019, Vale announced the goal of zeroing its net emissions of scopes 1 and 2 (relative to electricity consumption) by 2050. To this end, it is investing between US$ 4 billion and US$ 6 billion.

Read More»

Q2 2023 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 9.4%

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 106 to 116, or 9.4%, for the three-month period ending June 30, 2023, from Q1 2023. The year-over-year (Q2 2022 to Q2 2023) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 112 to 116, or 3.6%.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2023 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2023. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research            

OEMs Target India’s Premium MC Segment

INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar

The dominance of Royal Enfield in the mid-segment of the premium motorcycle market (300cc-500cc) could be facing challenges from upcoming products. The Triumph Speed 400, a result of a joint development effort between Triumph and Bajaj Auto, and the Harley-Davidson X440, developed through a collaboration between Hero MotoCorp and Harley Davidson, are set to compete in this market segment.

In response, Royal Enfield plans to introduce three new models in the 350-450cc range within the next year.

The Indian motorcycle market has witnessed a favorable trend towards high-end bikes. The phenomenon of premiumization has gained momentum due to increasing income levels, a growing young population, shifting preferences, and a surge in product launches.

Read More»

Scania Launches HV Truck with 900km Range

The X-gas line, presented by Scania in June 26, in Piracicaba (SP) will have versions with powers of 280, 340 and 410 horsepower, and has a range of 900 kilometers, 400 km more than Scania’s debut version in the gas segment.

The longer range was made possible by increasing the number of cylinders that store fuel in the chassis of the vehicles. There are 16 tanks, eight on each side, with a capacity ranging between 118 and 95 liters. In the gas truck previously launched by Scania, there were eight tanks in total.

Read More»

New Machinery Requirements

Christopher Bamforth
Christopher Bamforth

New Machinery requirements have been published for Europe and will replace the existing Machinery Directive Jan. 20, 2027. OEMs will have to be compliant with the new requirements on that day since there is no transition period.

With a heavy focus on safety, the environment and machine learning, the main takeaways are that these are EU regulations. This means that manufacturers will not have to wait for each member state’s upgrade of the regulation into law. This may streamline the process although it could mean big changes for some member states that previously had fewer requirements.

And there’s another important consideration. Since we have entered the digital age, all certifications and instructions can be in digital format. One exception is the non-professional machinery’s safety measures which must be included in paper format.

Read More»

BEV Demand Boosts Brazil Mining Investment

The increase in global demand for clean energy is accelerating investments in the exploration of reserves of so-called critical or strategic minerals in Brazil. Over the next five years in Brazil, companies are expected to invest approximately US$ 8 billion in key strategic minerals. In copper the expectation is that the resources will reach US$ 4.47 billion, while nickel is in second place, with investments of US$ 2.3 Billion forecast.

Source: Valor      Read The Article

PSR Analysis:  A significant part of the investment will take place in Construction and Mining Equipment such as Hydraulic Excavators, Heavy Duty Wheel loaders and Graders that helps to sustain and increase the growth in the segment in Brazil.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

DataPoint: North America Tractor/Loader/Backhoes (TLBs)

7,450 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Tractor/Loader/Backhoes (TLB) expected to be produced in North America in 2023.

Tractor/Loader/Backhoes are full-size machines that are three pieces of construction equipment combined into one: the tractor, the loader and the backhoe. These units are designed to tackle an array of construction and agricultural related activities.

Read More»