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SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.
NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019. However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build. This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward. The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well.
Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.
Carlos Briganti
In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.
This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.
Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.
Lorena Violante
ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.
The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.
During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.
Chris Fisher
Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.
According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).
Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.
OEM Off-Highway recently interviewed Power Systems’ Chris Fisher for their OEM Industry Update podcast. Here we present it with their permission
This week on OEM Industry Update we speak with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. He says truck demand continues to be strong and is expected to remain so through 2022 and possibly even into 2023. Inventory stocking and solid growth in single family housing are among the factors positively impacting the market.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:13 Sarah Jensen:
Welcome to OEM Industry Update; a weekly podcast examining the latest news and technology trends impacting product development teams and the heavy-duty on and off highway equipment Industries. I’m Sarah Jensen, editor of OEM Off Highway and in this week’s episode I’ll be speaking with Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, about the current state of the North American commercial vehicle market. Let’s take a listen now:
Do you expect a sharp slowdown for truck purchases in October due to the possible resurgence of the Coronavirus this fall?
Chris Fisher
PSR Analysis: At this point, no. The “shock and awe” of the pandemic appears to be well behind us. During the past few months, commercial truck demand has stabilized albeit at a low level but continues to improve.
Recent surveys have indicated that trucking conditions are improving. The biggest threat to the health of the industry would be a further lockdown of the economy which would cause trucking conditions to slow but would not likely upend the market. However, we do believe it will take a further 18-36 months for the economy to return to a pre-virus level.
In part 3 of “Living on the Edge” John Krzesicki examines microgrids with his guest Thomas Bourgeois, Deputy Director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 John Krzesicki
Hello, my name is John Krzesicki. Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show we have conversation with industry experts on their insight into the future of intelligent technology.
6,800 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Hydraulic Power Units to be produced in the United States during 2022.
A Hydraulic Power Unit (HPU) usually refers to a self-contained, free-standing engine assembly that is used to drive one piece of equipment. HPUs are powered by internal combustion engines or AC/DC electric motors.
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Share: Dominating production of HPUs in NA is Stanley Hydraulic with 49% of total units produced. In second position is Great Northern (Brave) with 9.5%. Tradewinds Powers is third with 8%.
Trends: Production of HPUs in the US increased 22% from 2020 to 2021. Production is expected to increase another 6% from in 2022. Hydraulic Power Units (power packs) are used in a variety of applications and industries ranging from marine, construction and military applications.
The overall gain in 2022 is attributed to the increase in construction and marine related activities. This product segment will continue to increase steadily over the next 5 years as warranted by current economic conditions and related demands. Expect an additional 10% increase by 2025.PSR
Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research
St. Paul, MN (July 12, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased 193.5% year-over-year (Q2 2020 to the Q2 2021), moving from 46 to 135. For the three-month period ended June 30, 2021, (Q1 2021 to Q2 2021) the TPI climbed 15.4%, increasing from 117 to 135.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
Global Index.Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and possibly into 2022.
All Regions.Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022. Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.
Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading source of global production and forecast information for powered equipment, has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Guy Youngs, an experienced market intelligence specialist.
Youngs, who has more than 30 years’ experience as an industry market analyst, most recently spent 11 years working for Perkins Engines in the United Kingdom.
While at Perkins Engines, he led the development of important forecast tools, including the creation of a Market Model used by Perkins Engines’ global team as a single source for its market analysis and planning efforts.
At PSR, Youngs will assume the new role of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead. He will be responsible for continuing to develop and adapt PSR’s industry forecast, overseeing the rate of technology adoption of alternative power sources into the future outlook and technology mix.
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