The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.
In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.
The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?
The Brazil government announced June 29 the new Safra Plan for 2022/2023 with a total of R$ 340 Billion (US$ 65 Bi) to fund business related to Agriculture, including Agricultural Machines and Trucks for product transportation. The amount is 36% higher than the previous year plan.
PSR Analysis: While the volume of funds is higher, the interest rates are also higher. In addition, the prices of agricultural supplies are higher than in the previous cycle. Agricultural Machines should maintain its high production and sales trend while Trucks should grow due to pre-buy caused by Proconve P8 (Equivalent to Euro 6) by January 2023.PSR
Despite high demand, Mercedes announced its fourth temporary production stop at the plant in São Bernardo do Campo-SP, from July 4-15. In the announcement, Mercedes mentions the shortage of components and its effort to work with the supply chain to meet commitments with customers.
PSR Analysis. The shortage of components, particularly semiconductors, is taking longer than expected and is affecting the MHV market more than expected. It may affect market projections if the supply chains do not recover 2H 2022. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.
Market Overview. The global UTV/ATV market size was US$ 8.66 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.13%. PSR forecasts the global market to grow to US$ 11.67 billion by 2026
The North American UTV/ATV market was valued at US$ 6.66 billion in 2021, and it is expected to reach US$ 8.50 billion in 2026, registering a CAGR of about 5.00% during the forecast period (2022 – 2026).
Applications. UTVs/ATVs were originally associated with sports and recreational activities. Application of these vehicles has diversified, and they are now being used in the agricultural sector and for patrolling, hunting, gardening, and other activities.
A recent application is the United States Army. The military has shown interest in acquiring UTVs/ATVs with features such as rapid transportation, the ability to carry nine fully armed soldiers, agility, and a minimum of 55 mph.
STUTTGART, Germany— One critical trend emerged during my conversations with many industry players at the Battery Show Europe and the Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Technology Expo Europe here last month: Battery thermal management is an important element in EV development and operations.
I attended the Battery Show Europe here June 27-30 with Dalibor Sablic, PSR senior business development manager-Europe.
An estimated 6,000 attendees walked the floor to discuss products and services with nearly 600 exhibitors at the show. There was a positive energy and outlook for the future of the e-mobility industry, a refreshing change in atmosphere following many quiet months caused by the COVID pandemic.
During the show, I had an opportunity to meet with representatives of Dow and learn about the wide array of products and services the company is developing for the e-mobility segment.
Komatsu began introducing hybrid construction equipment in Indonesia this spring. Equipped with an engine and electric motor as the power source, these machines can improve fuel efficiency by 20-30%, compared to conventional machines.
Chinese manufacturers are pushing low-priced construction equipment, and are now rivaling Komatsu, which has a stronghold in Indonesia, in terms of market share. With fuel prices rising sharply, emerging countries are also becoming more environmentally conscious. Komatsu is fending off Chinese competition with its highly fuel-efficient construction equipment and is tapping into demand for decarbonization.
In Indonesia, the largest construction equipment market in Southeast Asia, Komatsu has launched a hybrid hydraulic excavator. Equipped with a hybrid system developed in-house, the excavator’s swing unit is electrically powered. When turning the body, including the arm and driver’s seat, from side to side, the energy generated during deceleration is used to generate electricity, which is stored for future use. The company plans to market the system to nickel mine developers and others, where demand for EV batteries is growing.
The European EV market is expanding, and in the UK, Korean-made EVs are gaining popularity as vehicles that are more affordable than Tesla’s and that offer superior performance.
Last year in the UK, the Tesla Model 3 ranked second in sales of all passenger cars by model, marking the “first year of EVs” in earnest. However, the popular Tesla cars are not inexpensive, costing about three times as much as similarly sized gasoline-powered cars. On the other hand, Hyundai and Kia cars are priced at 60-70% of Tesla’s Model Y and have been a hit with environmentally conscious 30–40-year-olds who had been putting off purchasing EVs because they wanted to replace their cars with EVs but thought Tesla were too expensive.
A major reason for the high support for Korean-made EVs is their price competitiveness. In terms of corporate car leasing prices, Tesla’s Model Y costs 40 pounds per day (for a three-year lease), while Kia’s low-priced e-NIRO EV costs less than 20 pounds per day, about half the price. While the price may be reasonable due to the large difference in vehicle quality, the figures are enough to shatter the preconceived notion that EVs are expensive.
UK EV Market Share by Brand (Feb-April 2022)
Tesla, 25.2%
Hyundai & Kia, 14.6%
VW Group, 13.6%
Stellantis, 12.9%
BMW Group, 8.9%
Mercedes, 6.7%
Renault-Nissan, 4.4%
Others, 13.4%
The reason why Europeans have no resistance to “Korean-made EVs” has to do with historical backgrounds other than vehicle prices and tax benefits. Korean-made cars are highly regarded in Europe, and Korean cars have an extremely high share of the compact car segment in Europe. This is due to the fact that Korean automakers have aggressively expanded their factories into former Eastern European countries, where wages are low but skill levels are high; Hyundai and Kia established production bases in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, respectively, soon after both countries joined the European Union.
PSR Analysis: As mentioned above, many potential buyers believe EVs are more expensive than conventional engine models. Hyundai and Kia are successfully implementing mass-market EV strategies in Europe, where EVs are most prevalent, in order to overcome the sales slump caused by this image. IF the Korean carmakers can overcome this mis-perception of pricing, it will make a big difference in acceptance in this important EV market. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asiafor Power Systems Research
Last month, I visited the three-day 2022 NEW Environmental Exposition, an exhibition of environment-related equipment in Tokyo. The show promoted the effective use of resources, new energy and energy reduction, and the utilization of CO2 emission reduction technologies
PSR Analysis: The exhibition featured many environment-related devices for waste treatment, demolition, bioplastics, water treatment and purification, heat utilization systems, recycling, and more.
Large equipment such as those that crush and efficiently separate debris mixed with earth, sand, and wood; metal recovery systems from seawater using special fibers, and equipment related to crushing wood, stone, and other materials were eye-catching in variety and size.
The government of India has amended its National Policy on Bio-fuels that will accelerate the adoption of E20, allow the use of new bio-fuel feedstocks, and grant permission for bio-fuel exports under certain conditions.
PSR Analysis: To tackle soaring fuel oil prices, India plans to introduce 20% ethanol blending with gasoline in several regions of the county beginning in April 2023, and it will be implemented nationwide starting in FY25. The Indian government has expediated the process to increase local oil production and the transition to alternative fuels to reduce the dependencies on other countries. Currently, India is using a 10% mixture of ethanol and gasoline.
