News: Commercial Vehicles

2023-01-22

Are Hydrogen Engines in Your Future?

Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

According to newly published research by Interact Analysis, hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2 ICE) are forecast to be sold in 220,000 vehicles in 2035.

On the plus side, H2 ICE vehicles have some notable advantages. The engine technology is reasonably similar to diesel engines, enabling use of existing knowledge, design and production vehicles. The vehicles can deliver high power, work with impure fuel, work in dirty and dusty conditions and refuel quickly.

On the downside, there is no hydrogen infrastructure in place in almost all locations in the world, there is a lack of awareness about the technology and limited development so far. Most importantly, the current cost of hydrogen fuel is high – it will need a big reduction before the vehicles can become competitive. Even at half the cost of today, H2 ICE vehicles do not have a good total cost of ownership. The cost of the engine is not substantial, but the cost of the tanks adds a lot to the cost of the vehicle, then there is infrastructure and above all hydrogen fuel.

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FPT Developing Ethanol or Biomethane Engine in Brazil

FPT, Mahle and Brazilian universities are working to develop an FPT F1C Bi-Fuel engine to meet Brazilian transportation needs using Ethanol, or Biomethane and Hydrogen for use in hybrid vehicle applications.

The project involves the creation of mathematical models, which will be used to characterize and predict the behavior of the engine operating with ethanol and biomethane, assisting in the development of components and hardware, and testing the equipment at Mahle’s technology center in Jundiaí (SP).

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PSR Analysis. Brazil and much of South America have extensive renewable sources  for fuel. FPT and Mahle are betting on alternatives that cost effectively meet the decarbonization needs consistent with infrastructure restrictions.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Brazil Moves Forward on Truck Fleet Renewal Program

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT  

In December 2022, the Brazilian Government published regulations for the Fleet Renewal Program authorized by the law that was published in H1 2022. Under this regulation, truck owners may receive the old truck market value from companies in the Oil and Gas exploration chain, provided that they prove the truck was taken out of circulation, disassembly and recycled. The program is voluntary, both for owners selling the old truck and for O&G companies designating resources for the program in exchange for a reduction of duties on O&G exploration contracts.

Source: M&T     Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Preliminary analysis suggests the program won’t be very effective, since significant recycling and paperwork efforts are required to sell the old truck at market prices. It seems this is a regulation published to show environmental efforts, but one that will have limited effectiveness. No impact is seen in the Truck Market now unless market conditions change drastically. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

2023-01-20

Electric Light-Duty Trucks Must Meet 5% METI Goal by FY2030

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) now requires shippers that transport a large volume of freight to set a target of using 5% electric light-duty trucks by FY2030, which includes EVs and fuel cell vehicles (CVs), but not hybrids.

They will also be required to submit periodic reports on their progress toward this target. If the efforts are significantly inadequate, the committee can make recommendations to shippers and publicly announce the names of the companies involved.

Of the 800 major manufacturers, retailers, and other companies with large annual transportation volumes, those that are also involved in their own transportation or those that request exclusive transportation from a specific company are eligible for the program.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: The fact that hybrids are not included in this goal effectively means that the next-generation development of light-duty trucks has been narrowed down to BEVs or FCVs. However, FCVs still lack hydrogen stations, and the construction cost of hydrogen stations is higher than that of EV charging stations, so the shift to EVs will be promoted first. Light-duty trucks are numerous and can be said to be the artery of domestic logistics. With about seven years to go until 2030, the number of vehicles that will be replaced by EVs will increase every year. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

2022-12-14

Alternative Power Report, December 2022

AlternativePower Report_December2022Download

Read the expanded December 20222 Alternative Power Report produced by PSR’s Guy Youngs and other analysts at Power Systems Research. This month’s report includes articles on increased battery production in the US., Tesla’s plans for a recycling plant in Texas, increased merger activity in the EV Light/Medium commercial vehicle segment and new power sources being developed for cargo ships.

CV Production Nears Pre-covid Levels

INDIA REPORT
Aditya Kondejkar

A favorable mix of factors is propelling demand for commercial vehicles to their best-ever pre-covid-19 volumes in India. Even though the CV segment has not reached its 2018 peak, it is expected to grow by double digits in the current fiscal year.

This growth is based on healthy demand and a relatively low base last year. While the sales are in green for all the major OEMs, market leader Tata Motors has reported year-over-year drop of 3%.

Source: Auto News     Read The Article

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Solaris Buses Purchases 25 Fuel Cell Engines

EUROPEAN REPORT 
Emiliano Marzoli
Emiliano Marzoli

Ballard Power Systems has announced the sale of 25 hydrogen fuel cell engines to repeat customer Solaris Bus & Coach, a leading European bus manufacturer.

The 70kW fuel cells will be installed in Solaris’ Urbino 12 hydrogen buses for deployment to Polish public transport operator MPK Poznań and are expected to be delivered in H2 2023.

The buses are to be partially funded by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management’s Green Public Transport program. MPK Poznań requires 30% of its fleet to be zero-emission by 2028. These 25 hydrogen fuel cell buses will increase its zero-emission fleet from 18% to 25%.

Source: Ballard       Read The Article

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BorgWarner To Produce Vehicle Batteries in Brazil

BorgWarner said it will start producing battery systems for electric vehicles in Piracicaba-SP, Brazil, by Q1 2023 with declared annual capacity of 1,000 electric units.

The plant in Piracicaba formerly belonged to Delphi and was acquired by BorgWarner in 2020. The plant will receive a production line from Akasol, another company acquired by BorgWarner.

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DATAPOINT: North America Terminal Tractors

Estimated 2022 Production: 3,800 Units

3,800 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Terminal Tractors to be produced in North America (United States) in 2023.

Terminal Tractors are specialized heavy duty vehicles designed to move loads at container ports and container terminals. Generally, they are slow moving (under 30km/h) and employ a high torque diesel engine and 4×4 wheel drive which enables them to move very heavy trailer loads, sometimes up to 200 or 300 tons

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