Power Systems Research (PSR) is an international research company based in St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. It operates a second North America office in Detroit, Mich., and has offices in five other countries. PSR analysts have been collecting and analyzing global engine and powertrain data and information since 1976, and we use this data to develop targeted forecasts by industry segment and region.
Our team of experienced analysts works with OEMs, engine and component manufacturers, dealers, fleet managers and industry experts to compile detailed and focused data that has become an industry standard. It’s the leading source of global information on engines and power equipment powered by IC and alternate sources. Whether you need detailed global data, forecasts or customized local market studies, we can provide you with Data, Forecasting and Solutions. Let’s start today.
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E-Motorcycles Market Update
NORTH AMERICAN REPORT
Michael Aistrup The global e-motorcycle market has experienced high growth in the last couple of years, fueled in part by the declining price of Lithium-ion batteries. The battery is one of the most expensive components of an e-motorcycle, and changes in the price of Li-ion batteries affect the entire cost of an e-motorcycle. The cost of Li-ion batteries has been steadily declining, and this trend is likely to continue.
Power Systems Research has forecasted the global CAGR…
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Cummins Develops Hydrogen-Powered Engines
NORTH AMERICAN REPORT
Chris Fisher Cummins, Inc., is working to develop hydrogen-powered engines, using approaches for Hydrogen combustion engines and hydrogen fuel cells.
Both hydrogen engines and hydrogen fuel cells are better suited for long haul and many regional-haul truck applications than pure battery electric vehicles.
In North America, Cummins plans to introduce hydrogen internal combustion engines across their existing engine platforms starting in 2024.
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Power Systems Research Expands Forecast Capabilities and Focus on Technology Adoption 
Guy Youngs Joins PSR Team
Guy Youngs Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading source of global production and forecast information for powered equipment, has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Guy Youngs, an experienced market intelligence specialist.
Youngs, who has more than 30 years’ experience as an industry market analyst, most recently spent 11 years working for Perkins Engines in the United Kingdom.
While at Perkins Engines, he led the development of important forecast tools, including the creation of a Market Model used by Perkins Engines’ global team as a single source for its market analysis and planning efforts.
At PSR, Youngs will assume the new role of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead. He will be responsible for continuing to develop and adapt PSR’s industry forecast, overseeing the rate of technology adoption of alternative power sources into the future outlook and technology mix.
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Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing
Autonomous Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Chris Fisher We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.
Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment. Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.
The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology. Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway. It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.
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NA Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing
Chris Fisher Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
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North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace
Yosyf Sheremeta SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
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Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%
Jim Downey Chris Fisher ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database…
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MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023
Chris Fisher Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.
We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.
North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.
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Global: Recovery Is Strong, but Uneven
GLOBAL REPORT
Yosyf Sheremeta SUMMARY. The global economy performed very well in 2021 and continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with regions/countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which means that some sectors, jobs, and technologies will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. Based on the most recent economic developments and trends, Power Systems Research remains somewhat optimistic about the global recovery.
Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out. The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future. As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.
Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences. Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind. Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.
Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago. The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022. Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular.
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Global Economy On the Path To Economic Recovery, Despite Increased Uncertainty
Yosyf Sheremeta The global economy is on a healthy rebound trend, but issues with supply chain, logistics and the re-surgency of COVID-19 during Q3 2021 remained. Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in H1 2021; however, many challenges still remain. The rebound will continue to vary widely among different regions/countries, but a complete recovery is not expected until the global pandemic is under control. With some minor changes among regions and market segments globally, our overall forecast from last quarter remains in place, and that is good news to our industry players, OEMs, powertrain, and component suppliers.
The global economic performance last quarter was in line with our initial projections from earlier this year. As we projected last quarter, we did not expect any rapid economic recovery in H2 2021, however, we continued to witness a steady increase in economic activities. During the last quarter of 2021 Power Systems Research expects this trend to remain in place.
Government support in the form of fiscal policies and public health management are driving the economic rebound and largely explain variations in performance across countries. With the targeted monetary support to consumers and certain industries, the demand for products and services globally is coming back, and we expect this trend to carry over into Q1 2022.
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